466 Development of Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Symptomatic VTE at Time of Admission and Time of Discharge after Severe Traumatic Injury

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Clinical indicators predictive of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in trauma patients at multiple time points are not well outlined, particularly at time of discharge. We aimed to describe and predict inpatient and post-discharge risk factors of VTE after trauma using a multi-variate regression model and best of class machine learning (ML) models. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: In a prospective, case-cohort study, all trauma patients (pts) who arrived as level 1 or 2 trauma activations, from June 2018 to February 2020 were considered for study inclusion. A subset of pts who developed incident, first time, VTE and those who did not develop VTE within 90 days of discharge were identified. VTE were confirmed either by imaging or at autopsy during inpatient stay or post-discharge. Outcomes were defined as the development of symptomatic VTE (DVT and/or PE) within 90 days of discharge.A multi-variate Cox regression model and a best in class of a set of 5 different ML models (support-vector machine, random-forest, naives Bayes, logistic regression, neural network]) were used to predict VTE using models applied a) at 24 hours of injury date or b) on day of patient discharge. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Among 393 trauma pts (ISS=12.0, hospital LOS=4.0 days, age=48 years, 71% male, 96% with blunt mechanism, mortality 2.8%), 36 developed inpatient VTE and 36 developed VTE after discharge. In a weighted, multivariate Cox model, any type of surgery by day 1, increased age per 10 years, and BMI per 5 points were predictors of overall symptomatic VTE (C-stat 0.738). Prophylactic IVC filter placement (4.40), increased patient age per 10 years, and BMI per 5 points were predictors of post-discharge symptomatic VTE (C-stat= 0.698). A neural network ML model predicted VTE by day 1 with accuracy and AUC of 0.82 and 0.76, with performance exceeding those of a Cox model. A naīve Bayesian ML model predicted VTE at discharge, with accuracy and AUC of 0.81 and 0.77 at time of discharge, with performance exceeding those of a Cox model. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The rate of inpatient and post-discharge VTEs remain high. Limitations: single institution study, limited number of patients, internal validation only, with the use of limited number of ML models. We developed and internally validated a ML based tool.Future work will focus on external validation and expansion of ML techniques

Quantification of von Willebrand factor and ADAMTS-13 after traumatic injury: a pilot study

Background Von Willebrand factor (VWF) is an acute phase reactant synthesized in the megakaryocytes and endothelial cells. VWF forms ultra-large multimers (ULVWF) which are cleaved by the metalloprotease ADAMTS-13, preventing spontaneous VWF–platelet interaction. After trauma, ULVWF is released into circulation as part of the acute phase reaction. We hypothesized that trauma patients would have increased levels of VWF and decreased levels of ADAMTS-13 and that these patients would have accelerated thrombin generation.Methods We assessed plasma concentrations of VWF antigen and ADAMTS-13 antigen, the Rapid Enzyme Assays for Autoimmune Diseases (REAADS) activity of VWF, which measure exposure of the platelet-binding A1 domain, and thrombin generation kinetics in 50 samples from 30 trauma patients and an additional 21 samples from volunteers. Samples were analyzed at 0 to 2 hours and at 6 hours from the time of injury. Data are presented as median (IQR) and Kruskal-Wallis test was performed between trauma patients and volunteers at both time points.Results REAADS activity was greater in trauma patients than volunteers both at 0 to 2 hours (190.0 (132.0–264.0) vs. 92.0 (71.0–114.0), p<0.002) and at 6 hours (167.5 (108.0–312.5.0) vs. 92.0 (71.0–114.0), p<0.001). ADAMTS-13 antigen levels were also decreased in trauma patients both at 0 to 2 hours (0.84 (0.51–0.94) vs. 1.00 (0.89–1.09), p=0.010) and at 6 hours (0.653 (0.531–0.821) vs. 1.00 (0.89–1.09), p<0.001). Trauma patients had accelerated thrombin generation kinetics, with greater peak height and shorter time to peak than healthy volunteers at both time points.Discussion Trauma patients have increased exposure of the VWF A1 domain and decreased levels of ADAMTS-13 compared with healthy volunteers. This suggests that the VWF burst after trauma may exceed the proteolytic capacity of ADAMTS-13, allowing circulating ULVWF multimers to bind platelets, potentially contributing to trauma-induced coagulopathy.Level of evidence Prospective case cohort study

Timing and volume of crystalloid and blood products in pediatric trauma: An Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma multicenter prospective observational study

Copyright © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. BACKGROUND The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between timing and volume of crystalloid before blood products and mortality, hypothesizing that earlier transfusion and decreased crystalloid before transfusion would be associated with improved outcomes. METHODS A multi-institutional prospective observational study of pediatric trauma patients younger than 18 years, transported from the scene of injury with elevated age-adjusted shock index on arrival, was performed from April 2018 to September 2019. Volume and timing of prehospital, emergency department, and initial admission resuscitation were assessed including calculation of 20 ± 10 mL/kg crystalloid boluses overall and before transfusion. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models identified factors associated with mortality and extended intensive care, ventilator, and hospital days. RESULTS In 712 children at 24 trauma centers, mean age was 7.6 years, median (interquartile range) Injury Severity Score was 9 (2-20), and in-hospital mortality was 5.3% (n = 38). There were 311 patients(43.7%) who received at least one crystalloid bolus and 149 (20.9%) who received blood including 65 (9.6%) with massive transfusion activation. Half (53.3%) of patients who received greater than one crystalloid bolus required transfusion. Patients who received blood first (n = 41) had shorter median time to transfusion (19.8 vs. 78.0 minutes, p = 0.005) and less total fluid volume (50.4 vs. 86.6 mL/kg, p = 0.033) than those who received crystalloid first despite similar Injury Severity Score (median, 22 vs. 27, p = 0.40). On multivariable analysis, there was no association with mortality (p = 0.51); however, each crystalloid bolus after the first was incrementally associated with increased odds of extended ventilator, intensive care unit, and hospital days (all p \u3c 0.05). Longer time to transfusion was associated with extended ventilator duration (odds ratio, 1.11; p = 0.04). CONCLUSION Resuscitation with greater than one crystalloid bolus was associated with increased need for transfusion and worse outcomes including extended duration of mechanical ventilation and hospitalization in this prospective study. These data support a crystalloid-sparing, early transfusion approach for resuscitation of injured children. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Therapeutic, level IV