The search for stable prognostic models in multiple imputed data sets

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In prognostic studies model instability and missing data can be troubling factors. Proposed methods for handling these situations are bootstrapping (B) and Multiple imputation (MI). The authors examined the influence of these methods on model composition.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Models were constructed using a cohort of 587 patients consulting between January 2001 and January 2003 with a shoulder problem in general practice in the Netherlands (the Dutch Shoulder Study). Outcome measures were persistent shoulder disability and persistent shoulder pain. Potential predictors included socio-demographic variables, characteristics of the pain problem, physical activity and psychosocial factors. Model composition and performance (calibration and discrimination) were assessed for models using a complete case analysis, MI, bootstrapping or both MI and bootstrapping.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Results showed that model composition varied between models as a result of how missing data was handled and that bootstrapping provided additional information on the stability of the selected prognostic model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In prognostic modeling missing data needs to be handled by MI and bootstrap model selection is advised in order to provide information on model stability.</p

Low back pain in general practice: cost-effectiveness of a minimal psychosocial intervention versus usual care

An intervention that can prevent low back pain (LBP) becoming chronic, may not only prevent great discomfort for patients, but also save substantial costs for the society. Psychosocial factors appear to be of importance in the transition of acute to chronic LBP. The aim of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of an intervention aimed at psychosocial factors to usual care in patients with (sub)acute LBP. The study design was an economic evaluation alongside a cluster-randomized controlled trial, conducted from a societal perspective with a follow-up of 1 year. Sixty general practitioners in 41 general practices recruited 314 patients with non-specific LBP of less than 12 weeks’ duration. General practitioners in the minimal intervention strategy (MIS) group explored and discussed psychosocial prognostic factors. Usual care (UC) was not protocolized. Clinical outcomes were functional disability (Roland–Morris Disability Questionnaire), perceived recovery and health-related quality of life (EuroQol). Cost data consisted of direct and indirect costs and were measured by patient cost diaries and general practitioner registration forms. Complete cost data were available for 80% of the patients. Differences in clinical outcomes between both the groups were small and not statistically significant. Differences in cost data were in favor of MIS. However, the complete case analysis and the sensitivity analyses with imputed cost data were inconsistent with regard to the statistical significance of this difference in cost data. This study presents conflicting points of view regarding the cost-effectiveness of MIS. We conclude that (Dutch) general practitioners, as yet, should not replace their usual care by this new intervention

Revealing natural relationships among arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi: culture line BEG47 represents Diversispora epigaea, not Glomus versiforme

Background: Understanding the mechanisms underlying biological phenomena, such as evolutionarily conservative trait inheritance, is predicated on knowledge of the natural relationships among organisms. However, despite their enormous ecological significance, many of the ubiquitous soil inhabiting and plant symbiotic arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF, phylum Glomeromycota) are incorrectly classified. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here, we focused on a frequently used model AMF registered as culture BEG47. This fungus is a descendent of the ex-type culture-lineage of Glomus epigaeum, which in 1983 was synonymised with Glomus versiforme. It has since then been used as ‘G. versiforme BEG47’. We show by morphological comparisons, based on type material, collected 1860–61, of G. versiforme and on type material and living ex-type cultures of G. epigaeum, that these two AMF species cannot be conspecific, and by molecular phylogenetics that BEG47 is a member of the genus Diversispora. Conclusions: This study highlights that experimental works published during the last >25 years on an AMF named ‘G. versiforme’ or ‘BEG47’ refer to D. epigaea, a species that is actually evolutionarily separated by hundreds of millions of years from all members of the genera in the Glomerales and thus from most other commonly used AMF ‘laboratory strains’. Detailed redescriptions substantiate the renaming of G. epigaeum (BEG47) as D. epigaea, positioning it systematically in the order Diversisporales, thus enabling an evolutionary understanding of genetical, physiological, and ecological traits, relative to those of other AMF. Diversispora epigaea is widely cultured as a laboratory strain of AMF, whereas G. versiforme appears not to have been cultured nor found in the field since its original description

The role of community and population ecology in applying mycorrhizal fungi for improved food security.

The global human population is expected to reach ∼9 billion by 2050. Feeding this many people represents a major challenge requiring global crop yield increases of up to 100%. Microbial symbionts of plants such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) represent a huge, but unrealized resource for improving yields of globally important crops, especially in the tropics. We argue that the application of AMF in agriculture is too simplistic and ignores basic ecological principals. To achieve this challenge, a community and population ecology approach can contribute greatly. First, ecologists could significantly improve our understanding of the determinants of the survival of introduced AMF, the role of adaptability and intraspecific diversity of AMF and whether inoculation has a direct or indirect effect on plant production. Second, we call for extensive metagenomics as well as population genomics studies that are crucial to assess the environmental impact that introduction of non-local AMF may have on native AMF communities and populations. Finally, we plead for an ecologically sound use of AMF in efforts to increase food security at a global scale in a sustainable manner

Diversity Effects on Productivity Are Stronger within than between Trophic Groups in the Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Symbiosis

The diversity of plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) has been experimentally shown to alter plant and AMF productivity. However, little is known about how plant and AMF diversity interact to shape their respective productivity.We co-manipulated the diversity of both AMF and plant communities in two greenhouse studies to determine whether the productivity of each trophic group is mainly influenced by plant or AMF diversity, respectively, and whether there is any interaction between plant and fungal diversity. In both experiments we compared the productivity of three different plant species monocultures, or their respective 3-species mixtures. Similarly, in both studies these plant treatments were crossed with an AMF diversity gradient that ranged from zero (non-mycorrhizal controls) to a maximum of three and five taxonomically distinct AMF taxa, respectively. We found that within both trophic groups productivity was significantly influenced by taxon identity, and increased with taxon richness. These main effects of AMF and plant diversity on their respective productivities did not depend on each other, even though we detected significant individual taxon effects across trophic groups.Our results indicate that similar ecological processes regulate diversity-productivity relationships within trophic groups. However, productivity-diversity relationships are not necessarily correlated across interacting trophic levels, leading to asymmetries and possible biotic feedbacks. Thus, biotic interactions within and across trophic groups should be considered in predictive models of community assembly

Predictive factors for new onset or progression of knee osteoarthritis one year after trauma: MRI follow-up in general practice

Objective: To prospectively evaluate prognostic factors for new onset or progression of degenerative change on follow-up MRI one year after knee trauma and the association with clinical outcome. Methods: Within a prospective observational cohort study in general practice, we studied a subgroup of 117 patients with acute knee trauma (mean age 41 years, 43% women). Degenerative change was scored on MRI at baseline and after one year follow-up. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate prognostic factors for new onset or progressive degenerative change on follow-up MRI. Association between new or progressive degeneration and clinical outcome after one year was assessed. Results: On follow-up MRI 15% of patients with pre-existing knee osteoarthritis showed progression and 26% of patients demonstrated new degenerative change. The only statistically significant prognostic variable in the multivariate analysis was bone marrow oedema on initial MRI (OR 5.29 (95% CI 1.64-17.1), p∈=∈0.005). A significant association between new or progressive degenerative change and clinical outcome was found (p∈=∈0.003). Conclusion: Bone marrow oedema on MRI for acute knee injury is strongly predictive of new onset or progression of degenerative change of the femorotibial joint on follow-up MRI one year after trauma, which is reflected in clinical outcome

Large grazers modify effects of aboveground–belowground interactions on small-scale plant community composition

Aboveground and belowground organisms influence plant community composition by local interactions, and their scale of impact may vary from millimeters belowground to kilometers aboveground. However, it still poorly understood how large grazers that select their forage on large spatial scales interact with small-scale aboveground–belowground interactions on plant community heterogeneity. Here, we investigate how cattle (Bos taurus) modify the effects of interactions between yellow meadow ants (Lasius flavus) and European brown hares (Lepus europaeus) on the formation of small-scale heterogeneity in vegetation composition. In the absence of cattle, hares selectively foraged on ant mounds, while under combined grazing by hares and cattle, vertebrate grazing pressure was similar on and off mounds. Ant mounds that were grazed by only hares had a different plant community composition compared to their surroundings: the cover of the grazing-intolerant grass Elytrigia atherica was reduced on ant mounds, whereas the relative cover of the more grazing-tolerant and palatable grass Festuca rubra was enhanced. Combined grazing by hares and cattle, resulted in homogenization of plant community composition on and off ant mounds, with high overall cover of F. rubra. We conclude that hares can respond to local ant–soil–vegetation interactions, because they are small, selective herbivores that make their foraging decisions on a local scale. This results in small-scale plant patches on mounds of yellow meadow ants. In the presence of cattle, which are less selective aboveground herbivores, local plant community patterns triggered by small-scale aboveground–belowground interactions can disappear. Therefore, cattle modify the consequences of aboveground–belowground interactions for small-scale plant community composition

Active rehabilitation for chronic low back pain: Cognitive-behavioral, physical, or both? First direct post-treatment results from a randomized controlled trial [ISRCTN22714229]

BACKGROUND: The treatment of non-specific chronic low back pain is often based on three different models regarding the development and maintenance of pain and especially functional limitations: the deconditioning model, the cognitive behavioral model and the biopsychosocial model. There is evidence that rehabilitation of patients with chronic low back pain is more effective than no treatment, but information is lacking about the differential effectiveness of different kinds of rehabilitation. A direct comparison of a physical, a cognitive-behavioral treatment and a combination of both has never been carried out so far. METHODS: The effectiveness of active physical, cognitive-behavioral and combined treatment for chronic non-specific low back pain compared with a waiting list control group was determined by performing a randomized controlled trial in three rehabilitation centers. Two hundred and twenty three patients were randomized, using concealed block randomization to one of the following treatments, which they attended three times a week for 10 weeks: Active Physical Treatment (APT), Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment (CBT), Combined Treatment of APT and CBT (CT), or Waiting List (WL). The outcome variables were self-reported functional limitations, patient's main complaints, pain, mood, self-rated treatment effectiveness, treatment satisfaction and physical performance including walking, standing up, reaching forward, stair climbing and lifting. Assessments were carried out by blinded research assistants at baseline and immediately post-treatment. The data were analyzed using the intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: For 212 patients, data were available for analysis. After treatment, significant reductions were observed in functional limitations, patient's main complaints and pain intensity for all three active treatments compared to the WL. Also, the self-rated treatment effectiveness and satisfaction appeared to be higher in the three active treatments. Several physical performance tasks improved in APT and CT but not in CBT. No clinically relevant differences were found between the CT and APT, or between CT and CBT. CONCLUSION: All three active treatments were effective in comparison to no treatment, but no clinically relevant differences between the combined and the single component treatments were found

Quantifying the relative roles of selective and neutral processes in defining eukaryotic microbial communities

We have a limited understanding of the relative contributions of different processes that regulate microbial communities, which are crucial components of both natural and agricultural ecosystems. The contributions of selective and neutral processes in defining community composition are often confounded in field studies because as one moves through space, environments also change. Managed ecosystems provide an excellent opportunity to control for this and evaluate the relative strength of these processes by minimising differences between comparable niches separated at different geographic scales. We use next-generation sequencing to characterize the variance in fungal communities inhabiting adjacent fruit, soil and bark in comparable vineyards across 1000 kms in New Zealand. By compartmentalizing community variation, we reveal that niche explains at least four times more community variance than geographic location. We go beyond merely demonstrating that different communities are found in both different niches and locations by quantifying the forces that define these patterns. Overall, selection unsurprisingly predominantly shapes these microbial communities, but we show the balance of neutral processes also have a significant role in defining community assemblage in eukaryotic microbes

Responses of Auditory Nerve and Anteroventral Cochlear Nucleus Fibers to Broadband and Narrowband Noise: Implications for the Sensitivity to Interaural Delays

The quality of temporal coding of sound waveforms in the monaural afferents that converge on binaural neurons in the brainstem limits the sensitivity to temporal differences at the two ears. The anteroventral cochlear nucleus (AVCN) houses the cells that project to the binaural nuclei, which are known to have enhanced temporal coding of low-frequency sounds relative to auditory nerve (AN) fibers. We applied a coincidence analysis within the framework of detection theory to investigate the extent to which AVCN processing affects interaural time delay (ITD) sensitivity. Using monaural spike trains to a 1-s broadband or narrowband noise token, we emulated the binaural task of ITD discrimination and calculated just noticeable differences (jnds). The ITD jnds derived from AVCN neurons were lower than those derived from AN fibers, showing that the enhanced temporal coding in the AVCN improves binaural sensitivity to ITDs. AVCN processing also increased the dynamic range of ITD sensitivity and changed the shape of the frequency dependence of ITD sensitivity. Bandwidth dependence of ITD jnds from AN as well as AVCN fibers agreed with psychophysical data. These findings demonstrate that monaural preprocessing in the AVCN improves the temporal code in a way that is beneficial for binaural processing and may be crucial in achieving the exquisite sensitivity to ITDs observed in binaural pathways