Modeling the Distributive Effects of an Agricultural Shock on Household Income in South Africa: A Sam Multiplier Decomposition and Structurel Path Analysis

Abstract. Natural resource redistribution and ownership transfer programs are introduced as a way of improving income distribution and alleviating poverty in rural areas of most developing countries. In the case of South Africa, these redistributive policies are implemented in line with the national development plan targeting extreme poverty alleviation and reduction of wide income disparities by 2030. This paper analyses the distributive effects of the land redistribution policy which is a shock in the agriculture sector on poor household income in South Africa by applying a multiplier decomposition and structural path analysis. The study contributes to the existing literature by providing a microscopic analysis of the global multiplier to show the transmission mechanism of household income from a shock into the agriculture sector and show how income moves across sectors, factors and households by dividing the multiplier effects into all its components. The results showed that poor households received higher direct effects and the rich households received high indirect effects from the shock in the agricultural sector. The structural path shows that a significant portion of the global influence of the shock in agriculture is transmitted through the path of factor income which in turn increases poor household income.Keywords. Multiplier decomposition, Structural path analysis, Land redistribution.JEL. I38, O13, Q15, Q18

Empirical Test of the Relationship Between Import Substitution and Trade Performance in Zimbabwe

The study on trade performance and import substitution assumes that there is both short run and long run relationship between export growth and the trade policy instruments. Trade performance in this research is represented by the movements in the net exports (trade gap) for the period of 1980-2009, and trade restriction is captured in import value index. The study uses vector error correction model for the analysis of multivariate time series. The main findings from the study, affirm that a set of variables have a long run relationship with the trade performance in Zimbabwe. The results also indicate that both short run and long run depreciation in the exchange rate encourages exports and discourages imports. Trade performance is negatively related to trade restriction as indicated in the study. Keywords: Import substitution, trade performance, vector error correction model, multivariate time serie

Credit access and women entrepreneurship in Zimbabwe’s informal sector

Despite government’s huge investments in the informal sector activities, women are constrained in the credit market mainly due to culture; norms and lack of collateral securities as majority of women do not have control over productive capital. As a way of improving access to credit by women, the Government recently launched a number of women empowerment policies among them is the improved access to credit from financial institutions. Using individual firm level data and a methodological approach consisting of endogenous switching regression approach, this study intends to empirically investigate whether the improved credit access by women is justified in Zimbabwe. An endogenous switching regression is appropriate to deal with individual heterogeneity and examine whether access to credit is gender-based. The results showed that there is no discrimination in the credit market as there is no significant difference in access to credit between male and female entrepreneurs. However, there is a slight significant improvement in firm performance due to access to credit. The study recommends that Microcredit be made more flexible and to incorporate special relief non-financial intermediations to meet so as cater for the gender needs of household and community.https://www.abacademies.org/journals/academy-of-entrepreneurship-journal-home.htmlpm2021Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS

Land redistribution and the South African economy

Land redistributive policies can be viewed as effective tools for reducing rural poverty mainly because agriculture continues to be a major source of rural livelihood and a contributor to rural economic growth. For the structural changes and economy-wide impacts, including behavioural changes of rural land distribution, to be assessed and captured through time, a South African Social Accounting Matrix can be used as a database to construct a dynamic computable general equilibrium simulation model to simulate the potential impact on household welfare in South Africa. This study seeks to assess how government redistributive policies may affect household welfare in short- and long-run, focusing on poverty and income distribution in South Africa by applying a dynamic computable general equilibrium microsimulation model. The results showed that rural land distribution increases poor household income through an increase in factor by an average of 0.828. However, for most macroeconomic variables, the impact is negative in the short-run with a gradual increase in the long-run. The results support the claim that rural land distribution coupled with agriculture investment and government support can be effective in improving household welfare.https://www.agriculturejournals.cz/web/agriceconam2020Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS

Independent and combined effects of improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, and improved complementary feeding, on child stunting and anaemia in rural Zimbabwe: a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Child stunting reduces survival and impairs neurodevelopment. We tested the independent and combined effects of improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), and improved infant and young child feeding (IYCF) on stunting and anaemia in in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We did a cluster-randomised, community-based, 2 × 2 factorial trial in two rural districts in Zimbabwe. Clusters were defined as the catchment area of between one and four village health workers employed by the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care. Women were eligible for inclusion if they permanently lived in clusters and were confirmed pregnant. Clusters were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to standard of care (52 clusters), IYCF (20 g of a small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplement per day from age 6 to 18 months plus complementary feeding counselling; 53 clusters), WASH (construction of a ventilated improved pit latrine, provision of two handwashing stations, liquid soap, chlorine, and play space plus hygiene counselling; 53 clusters), or IYCF plus WASH (53 clusters). A constrained randomisation technique was used to achieve balance across the groups for 14 variables related to geography, demography, water access, and community-level sanitation coverage. Masking of participants and fieldworkers was not possible. The primary outcomes were infant length-for-age Z score and haemoglobin concentrations at 18 months of age among children born to mothers who were HIV negative during pregnancy. These outcomes were analysed in the intention-to-treat population. We estimated the effects of the interventions by comparing the two IYCF groups with the two non-IYCF groups and the two WASH groups with the two non-WASH groups, except for outcomes that had an important statistical interaction between the interventions. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01824940. FINDINGS: Between Nov 22, 2012, and March 27, 2015, 5280 pregnant women were enrolled from 211 clusters. 3686 children born to HIV-negative mothers were assessed at age 18 months (884 in the standard of care group from 52 clusters, 893 in the IYCF group from 53 clusters, 918 in the WASH group from 53 clusters, and 991 in the IYCF plus WASH group from 51 clusters). In the IYCF intervention groups, the mean length-for-age Z score was 0·16 (95% CI 0·08-0·23) higher and the mean haemoglobin concentration was 2·03 g/L (1·28-2·79) higher than those in the non-IYCF intervention groups. The IYCF intervention reduced the number of stunted children from 620 (35%) of 1792 to 514 (27%) of 1879, and the number of children with anaemia from 245 (13·9%) of 1759 to 193 (10·5%) of 1845. The WASH intervention had no effect on either primary outcome. Neither intervention reduced the prevalence of diarrhoea at 12 or 18 months. No trial-related serious adverse events, and only three trial-related adverse events, were reported. INTERPRETATION: Household-level elementary WASH interventions implemented in rural areas in low-income countries are unlikely to reduce stunting or anaemia and might not reduce diarrhoea. Implementation of these WASH interventions in combination with IYCF interventions is unlikely to reduce stunting or anaemia more than implementation of IYCF alone. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Swiss Development Cooperation, UNICEF, and US National Institutes of Health.The SHINE trial is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1021542 and OPP113707); UK Department for International Development; Wellcome Trust, UK (093768/Z/10/Z, 108065/Z/15/Z and 203905/Z/16/Z); Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation; US National Institutes of Health (2R01HD060338-06); and UNICEF (PCA-2017-0002)

DETERMINANTS OF CHOICE OF CROP VARIETY AS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION OPTION IN ARID REGIONS OF ZIMBABWE

Impacts of climate change in developing countries remain poorly understood because few studies have successfully analyses the overall impact of climate on developing country economies. Agricultural growth is widely viewed as an effective and most important way to reduce poverty in developing countries which are hardly hit by the adverse effects of climate change (Datt and Ravallion, 1996). Despite this knowledge the main challenge is how to increase agricultural productivity to improve household welfare and increase food security in these changing and challenging climatic conditions. This study used the multinomial logit model to analyse the determinants of farmers' choice of crop variety in the face of climate change. The estimation of the multinomial logit was done by using the sorghum variety options as dependent variable and where farmers grow other crop different from sorghum as the reference state. Results show that the key determinants of choosing crop variety are; the price of existing crop variety, level of education of farmers, the size of the farms, government policies and incentives and credit availability

Land redistribution and the South African economy

Land redistributive policies can be viewed as effective tools for reducing rural poverty mainly because agriculture continues to be a major source of rural livelihood and a contributor to rural economic growth. For the structural changes and economy-wide impacts, including behavioural changes of rural land distribution, to be assessed and captured through time, a South African Social Accounting Matrix can be used as a database to construct a dynamic computable general equilibrium simulation model to simulate the potential impact on household welfare in South Africa. This study seeks to assess how government redistributive policies may affect household welfare in short- and long-run, focusing on poverty and income distribution in South Africa by applying a dynamic computable general equilibrium microsimulation model. The results showed that rural land distribution increases poor household income through an increase in factor by an average of 0.828. However, for most macroeconomic variables, the impact is negative in the short-run with a gradual increase in the long-run. The results support the claim that rural land distribution coupled with agriculture investment and government support can be effective in improving household welfare.https://www.agriculturejournals.cz/web/agriceconam2020Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS