The use of scenarios and models to evaluate the future of nature values and ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests

Science and society are increasingly interested in predicting the effects of global change and socio-economic development on natural systems, to ensure maintenance of both ecosystems and human well-being. The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has identified the combination of ecological modelling and scenario forecasting as key to improving our understanding of those effects, by evaluating the relationships and feedbacks between direct and indirect drivers of change, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Using as case study the forests of the Mediterranean basin (complex socio-ecological systems of high social and conservation value), we reviewed the literature to assess (1) what are the modelling approaches most commonly used to predict the condition and trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services under future scenarios of global change, (2) what are the drivers of change considered in future scenarios and at what scales, and (3) what are the nature and ecosystem service indicators most commonly evaluated. Our review shows that forecasting studies make relatively little use of modelling approaches accounting for actual ecological processes and feedbacks between different socio-ecological sectors; predictions are generally made on the basis of a single (mainly climate) or a few drivers of change. In general, there is a bias in the set of nature and ecosystem service indicators assessed. In particular, cultural services and human well-being are greatly underrepresented in the literature. We argue that these shortfalls hamper our capacity to make the best use of predictive tools to inform decision-making in the context of global change.This work was supported by the Spanish Government through the INMODES project (grant number CGL2017-89999-C2-2-R), the ERA-NET FORESTERRA project INFORMED (grant number 29183), and the project Boscos Sans per a una Societat Saludable funded by Obra Social la Caixa (https://obrasociallacaixa.org/). AMO and AA were supported by Spanish Government through the “Juan de la Cierva” fellowship program (IJCI-2016-30349 and IJCI-2016-30049, respectively). JVRD was supported by the Government of Asturias and the FP7-Marie Curie-COFUND program of the European Commission (Grant “Clarín” ACA17-02)

Veiligheid, milieu en duurzame ontwikkeling

Available from National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change, P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, fax: +31 30 2744436, e-mail: [email protected] niet beschikbaarOn 18-19 April 1996 an international workshop was organised by NWO, the Dutch HDP-committee and NRP to contribute to the research planning within the International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP) on the subject of 'Environmental Security and Sustainable Development'. The report contains the papers presented during the workshop on various-issues such as food- and watersecurity, response strategies and the concept of environmental security. Within IHDP 'Global Environmental Change and Human Security' has become one of the core projects.SG-NO

Climate Research. Final Report first fase of the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Changes (NOP-I) 1989-1995

Abstract niet beschikbaarThis report (in Dutch) summarizes the mater findings of the first phase of the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Changes (1989-1995). The report covers the five themes of research: causes of climate change, climate system, impacts of climate change, sustainable solutions and integrated assessment. Furthermore the report reflects on the added value of the NRP in the context of the main objectives of the programme.SG-NO

Climate change, a continuing care

Abstract niet beschikbaarAbstract not availableSG-NO

[Klimaatverandering, een permanente zorg]

Abstract niet beschikbaarThis report, Climate Change, a Permanent Concern, presents the results of research that was conducted in over 90 projects during the second phase of the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP-II, 1995-2001). The report is intended for policymakers, members of business and societal organisations and interested members of the public.This report addresses the following questions arising from climate policy in the Netherlands: What new understanding is there about the climate system: what has been learned about climate variability, the causes of climate change and the role of human activities (detection and attribution). What are the possible consequences of climate change for the Netherlands in particular, but also for other regions (especially developing countries), and what possibilities are there for adaptation? What development paths are there to bring about reductions in emissions? What recommendations can be made for the Netherlands' national, international and local climate policies?SG-NO