Gray's time-varying coefficients model for posttransplant survival of pediatric liver transplant recipients with a diagnosis of cancer

Transplantation is often the only viable treatment for pediatric patients with end-stage liver disease. Making well-informed decisions on when to proceed with transplantation requires accurate predictors of transplant survival. The standard Cox proportional hazards (PH) model assumes that covariate effects are time-invariant on right-censored failure time; however, this assumption may not always hold. Gray's piecewise constant time-varying coefficients (PC-TVC) model offers greater flexibility to capture the temporal changes of covariate effects without losing the mathematical simplicity of Cox PH model. In the present work, we examined the Cox PH and Gray PC-TVC models on the posttransplant survival analysis of 288 pediatric liver transplant patients diagnosed with cancer. We obtained potential predictors through univariable (P < 0.15) and multivariable models with forward selection (P < 0.05) for the Cox PH and Gray PC-TVC models, which coincide. While the Cox PH model provided reasonable average results in estimating covariate effects on posttransplant survival, the Gray model using piecewise constant penalized splines showed more details of how those effects change over time. © 2013 Yi Ren et al

Increased HIV Incidence in Men Who Have Sex with Men Despite High Levels of ART-Induced Viral Suppression: Analysis of an Extensively Documented Epidemic

Background: There is interest in expanding ART to prevent HIV transmission, but in the group with the highest levels of ART use, men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), numbers of new infections diagnosed each year have not decreased as ART coverage has increased for reasons which remain unclear. Methods: We analysed data on the HIV-epidemic in MSM in the UK from a range of sources using an individual-based simulation model. Model runs using parameter sets found to result in good model fit were used to infer changes in HIV-incidence and risk behaviour. Results: HIV-incidence has increased (estimated mean incidence 0.30/100 person-years 1990–1997, 0.45/100 py 1998–2010), associated with a modest (26%) rise in condomless sex. We also explored counter-factual scenarios: had ART not been introduced, but the rise in condomless sex had still occurred, then incidence 2006–2010 was 68% higher; a policy of ART initiation in all diagnosed with HIV from 2001 resulted in 32% lower incidence; had levels of HIV testing been higher (68% tested/year instead of 25%) incidence was 25% lower; a combination of higher testing and ART at diagnosis resulted in 62% lower incidence; cessation of all condom use in 2000 resulted in a 424% increase in incidence. In 2010, we estimate that undiagnosed men, the majority in primary infection, accounted for 82% of new infections. Conclusion: A rise in HIV-incidence has occurred in MSM in the UK despite an only modest increase in levels of condomless sex and high coverage of ART. ART has almost certainly exerted a limiting effect on incidence. Much higher rates of HIV testing combined with initiation of ART at diagnosis would be likely to lead to substantial reductions in HIV incidence. Increased condom use should be promoted to avoid the erosion of the benefits of ART and to prevent other serious sexually transmitted infections

HIV Prevention in Care and Treatment Settings: Baseline Risk Behaviors among HIV Patients in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania.

HIV care and treatment settings provide an opportunity to reach people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) with prevention messages and services. Population-based surveys in sub-Saharan Africa have identified HIV risk behaviors among PLHIV, yet data are limited regarding HIV risk behaviors of PLHIV in clinical care. This paper describes the baseline sociodemographic, HIV transmission risk behaviors, and clinical data of a study evaluating an HIV prevention intervention package for HIV care and treatment clinics in Africa. The study was a longitudinal group-randomized trial in 9 intervention clinics and 9 comparison clinics in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania (N = 3538). Baseline participants were mostly female, married, had less than a primary education, and were relatively recently diagnosed with HIV. Fifty-two percent of participants had a partner of negative or unknown status, 24% were not using condoms consistently, and 11% reported STI symptoms in the last 6 months. There were differences in demographic and HIV transmission risk variables by country, indicating the need to consider local context in designing studies and using caution when generalizing findings across African countries. Baseline data from this study indicate that participants were often engaging in HIV transmission risk behaviors, which supports the need for prevention with PLHIV (PwP). TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01256463

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Debate and Commentary-Will Early Infection Compromise Treatment-as-Prevention Strategies?

Universal HIV testing and immediate antiretroviral therapy for infected individuals has been proposed as a way of reducing the transmission of HIV and thereby bringing the HIV epidemic under control. It is unclear whether transmission during early HIV infection—before individuals are likely to have been diagnosed with HIV and started on antiretroviral therapy—will compromise the effectiveness of treatment as prevention. This article presents two opposing viewpoints by Powers, Miller, and Cohen, and Williams and Dye, followed by a commentary by Fraser

Estimating the Impact of Plasma HIV-1 RNA Reductions on Heterosexual HIV-1 Transmission Risk

Background: The risk of sexual transmission of HIV-1 is strongly associated with the level of HIV-1 RNA in plasma making reduction in HIV-1 plasma levels an important target for HIV-1 prevention interventions. A quantitative understanding of the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA and HIV-1 transmission risk could help predict the impact of candidate HIV-1 prevention interventions that operate by reducing plasma HIV-1 levels, such as antiretroviral therapy (ART), therapeutic vaccines, and other non-ART interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings: We use prospective data collected from 2004 to 2008 in East and Southern African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples to model the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA levels and heterosexual transmission risk with confirmation of HIV-1 transmission events by HIV-1 sequencing. The model is based on follow-up of 3381 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples over 5017 person-years encompassing 108 genetically-linked HIV-1 transmission events. HIV-1 transmission risk was 2.27 per 100 person-years with a log-linear relationship to log10 plasma HIV-1 RNA. The model predicts that a decrease in average plasma HIV-1 RNA of 0.74 log10 copies/mL (95% CI 0.60 to 0.97) reduces heterosexual transmission risk by 50%, regardless of the average starting plasma HIV-1 level in the population and independent of other HIV-1-related population characteristics. In a simulated population with a similar plasma HIV-1 RNA distribution the model estimates that 90% of overall HIV-1 infections averted by a 0.74 copies/mL reduction in plasma HIV-1 RNA could be achieved by targeting this reduction to the 58% of the cohort with plasma HIV-1 levels ≥4 log10 copies/mL. Conclusions/Significance: This log-linear model of plasma HIV-1 levels and risk of sexual HIV-1 transmission may help estimate the impact on HIV-1 transmission and infections averted from candidate interventions that reduce plasma HIV-1 RNA levels

Demographics of sources of HIV-1 transmission in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN 071 PopART study

BACKGROUND: In the last decade, universally available antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to greatly improved health and survival of people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, but new infections continue to appear. The design of effective prevention strategies requires the demographic characterisation of individuals acting as sources of infection, which is the aim of this study. METHODS: Between 2014 and 2018, the HPTN 071 PopART study was conducted to quantify the public health benefits of ART. Viral samples from 7124 study participants in Zambia were deep-sequenced as part of HPTN 071-02 PopART Phylogenetics, an ancillary study. We used these sequences to identify likely transmission pairs. After demographic weighting of the recipients in these pairs to match the overall HIV-positive population, we analysed the demographic characteristics of the sources to better understand transmission in the general population. FINDINGS: We identified a total of 300 likely transmission pairs. 178 (59·4%) were male to female, with 130 (95% CI 110-150; 43·3%) from males aged 25-40 years. Overall, men transmitted 2·09-fold (2·06-2·29) more infections per capita than women, a ratio peaking at 5·87 (2·78-15·8) in the 35-39 years source age group. 40 (26-57; 13·2%) transmissions linked individuals from different communities in the trial. Of 288 sources with recorded information on drug resistance mutations, 52 (38-69; 18·1%) carried viruses resistant to first-line ART. INTERPRETATION: HIV-1 transmission in the HPTN 071 study communities comes from a wide range of age and sex groups, and there is no outsized contribution to new infections from importation or drug resistance mutations. Men aged 25-39 years, underserved by current treatment and prevention services, should be prioritised for HIV testing and ART. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and National Institute of Mental Health

Optimal Uses of Antiretrovirals for Prevention in HIV-1 Serodiscordant Heterosexual Couples in South Africa: A Modelling Study

Hallett et al use a mathematical model to examine the long-term impact and cost-effectiveness of different pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) strategies for HIV prevention in serodiscordant couples

Expanding ART for Treatment and Prevention of HIV in South Africa: Estimated Cost and Cost-Effectiveness 2011-2050

Background: Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa. Methods: We model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15-49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm3(current practice), CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011-2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses. Results: Expanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm3prevents an estimated 265,000 (17%) and 1.3 million (15%) new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and$3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45%) and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves$0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9-194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99$17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%. Conclusion: Increasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated

Chitosan–Starch–Keratin composites: Improving thermo-mechanical and degradation properties through chemical modification

The lysozyme test shows an improved in the degradability rate, the weight loss of the films at 21 days is reduced from 73 % for chitosan-starch matrix up to 16 % for the composites with 5wt% of quill; but all films show a biodegradable character depending on keratin type and chemical modification. The outstanding properties related to the addition of treated keratin materials show that these natural composites are a remarkable alternative to potentiat-ing chitosan–starch films with sustainable featuresChitosan–starch polymers are reinforced with different keratin materials obtained from chicken feather. Keratin materials are treated with sodium hydroxide; the modified surfaces are rougher in comparison with untreated surfaces, observed by Scanning Electron Microscopy. The results obtained by Differential Scanning Calorimetry show an increase in the endothermic peak related to water evaporation of the films from 92 °C (matrix) up to 102–114 °C (reinforced composites). Glass transition temperature increases from 126 °C in the polymer matrix up to 170–200 °C for the composites. Additionally, the storage modulus in the composites is enhanced up to 1614 % for the composites with modified ground quill, 2522 % for composites with modified long fiber and 3206 % for the composites with modified short fiber. The lysozyme test shows an improved in the degradability rate, the weight loss of the films at 21 days is reduced from 73 % for chitosan-starch matrix up to 16 % for the composites with 5wt% of quill; but all films show a biodegradable character depending on keratin type and chemical modification. The outstanding properties related to the addition of treated keratin materials show that these natural composites are a remarkable alternative to potentiat-ing chitosan–starch films with sustainable featuresUniversidad Autónoma del Estado de México Tecnológico Nacional de México, Instituto Tecnológico de Querétaro Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Tecnológico Nacional de México, Instituto Tecnológico de Celaya Universidad Autónoma de Cd. Juáre

Antiretroviral Drugs Protect Against HIV-1 Infection in Heterosexuals

BackgroundAntiretroviral preexposure prophylaxis is a promising approach for preventing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in heterosexual populations.MethodsWe conducted a randomized trial of oral antiretroviral therapy for use as preexposure prophylaxis among HIV-1-serodiscordant heterosexual couples from Kenya and Uganda. The HIV-1-seronegative partner in each couple was randomly assigned to one of three study regimens--once-daily tenofovir (TDF), combination tenofovir-emtricitabine (TDF-FTC), or matching placebo--and followed monthly for up to 36 months. At enrollment, the HIV-1-seropositive partners were not eligible for antiretroviral therapy, according to national guidelines. All couples received standard HIV-1 treatment and prevention services.ResultsWe enrolled 4758 couples, of whom 4747 were followed: 1584 randomly assigned to TDF, 1579 to TDF-FTC, and 1584 to placebo. For 62% of the couples followed, the HIV-1-seronegative partner was male. Among HIV-1-seropositive participants, the median CD4 count was 495 cells per cubic millimeter (interquartile range, 375 to 662). A total of 82 HIV-1 infections occurred in seronegative participants during the study, 17 in the TDF group (incidence, 0.65 per 100 person-years), 13 in the TDF-FTC group (incidence, 0.50 per 100 person-years), and 52 in the placebo group (incidence, 1.99 per 100 person-years), indicating a relative reduction of 67% in the incidence of HIV-1 with TDF (95% confidence interval [CI], 44 to 81; P&lt;0.001) and of 75% with TDF-FTC (95% CI, 55 to 87; P&lt;0.001). Protective effects of TDF-FTC and TDF alone against HIV-1 were not significantly different (P=0.23), and both study medications significantly reduced the HIV-1 incidence among both men and women. The rate of serious adverse events was similar across the study groups. Eight participants receiving active treatment were found to have been infected with HIV-1 at baseline, and among these eight, antiretroviral resistance developed in two during the study.ConclusionsOral TDF and TDF-FTC both protect against HIV-1 infection in heterosexual men and women. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Partners PrEP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00557245.)