Estimating uncertainty in ecosystem budget calculations

© The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Ecosystems 13 (2010): 239-248, doi:10.1007/s10021-010-9315-8.Ecosystem nutrient budgets often report values for pools and fluxes without any indication of uncertainty, which makes it difficult to evaluate the significance of findings or make comparisons across systems. We present an example, implemented in Excel, of a Monte Carlo approach to estimating error in calculating the N content of vegetation at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. The total N content of trees was estimated at 847 kg ha−1 with an uncertainty of 8%, expressed as the standard deviation divided by the mean (the coefficient of variation). The individual sources of uncertainty were as follows: uncertainty in allometric equations (5%), uncertainty in tissue N concentrations (3%), uncertainty due to plot variability (6%, based on a sample of 15 plots of 0.05 ha), and uncertainty due to tree diameter measurement error (0.02%). In addition to allowing estimation of uncertainty in budget estimates, this approach can be used to assess which measurements should be improved to reduce uncertainty in the calculated values. This exercise was possible because the uncertainty in the parameters and equations that we used was made available by previous researchers. It is important to provide the error statistics with regression results if they are to be used in later calculations; archiving the data makes resampling analyses possible for future researchers. When conducted using a Monte Carlo framework, the analysis of uncertainty in complex calculations does not have to be difficult and should be standard practice when constructing ecosystem budgets

Shrinking and Splitting of drainage basins in orogenic landscapes from the migration of the main drainage divide

International audienceClimate, and in particular **the spatial pattern of precipitation, is thought to affect* *the topographic and tectonic evolution of mountain belts through erosion. Numerical model simulations of landscape erosion controlled **by horizontal tectonic motion or orographic precipitation result in the asymmetric topography that characterizes most natural mountain belts, and in a continuous migration of the main drainage divide. The effects of such a migration have, however, been challenging to observe in natural settings. Here I document the effects of a lateral precipitation gradient on a landscape undergoing constant uplift in a laboratory modelling experiment. In the experiment, the drainage divide migrates towards the drier, leeward side of the mountain range, causing the drainage basins on the leeward side to shrink and split into* *smaller basins. This mechanism results in a progressively increasing number of drainage basins on the leeward side of the mountain range as the divide migrates, such that the expected relationship between the spacing of drainage basins and the location of the main drainage divide is maintained. I propose that this mechanism could clarify the drainage divide migration and topographic asymmetry found in active orogenic mountain ranges, as exemplified by the Aconquija Range of Argentin

How informative is a negative finding in a small pharmacogenetic study?

Many pharmacogenetic studies fail to yield any statistically significant associations. Such negative findings may be due to the absence of, or inadequate statistical power to test for, an effect at the genetic variants tested. In many instances, sample sizes are small, making it unclear how to interpret the absence of statistically significant findings. We demonstrate that the amount of information that can be drawn from a negative study is improved by incorporating statistical power and the added context of well-validated pharmacogenetic effects into the interpretation process. This approach permits clearer inferences to be made about the possible range of genetic effects that may be present in, or are likely absent from, small drug studies

ISRM-Suggested Method for Determining the Mode I Static Fracture Toughness Using Semi-Circular Bend Specimen

The International Society for Rock Mechanics has so far developed two standard methods for the determination of static fracture toughness of rock. They used three different core based specimens and tests were to be performed on a typical laboratory compression or tension load frame. Another method to determine the mode I fracture toughness of rock using semicircular bend specimen is herein presented. The specimen is semicircular in shape and made from typical cores taken from the rock with any relative material directions noted. The specimens are tested in three-point bending using a laboratory compression test instrument. The failure load along with its dimensions is used to determine the fracture toughness. Most sedimentary rocks which are layered in structure may exhibit fracture properties that depend on the orientation and therefore measurements in more than one material direction may be necessary. The fracture toughness measurements are expected to yield a size-independent material property if certain minimum specimen size requirements are satisfied

The evolution of the urinary bladder as a storage organ: scent trails and selective pressure of the first land animals in a computational simulation

The function of waste control in all living organisms is one of the vital importance. Almost universally, terrestrial tetrapods have a urinary bladder with a storage function. It is well documented that many marine and aerial species do not have an organ of such a function, or have one with very depressed storage functionality. Bladder morphology indicates it has evolved from a thin-walled structure used for osmoregulatory purposes, as it is currently used in many marine animals. It is hypothesised that the storage function of the urinary bladder allows for an evolutionary selective advantage in reducing the likelihood of successful predation. Random walks simulating predator and prey movements with simplified scent trails were utilised to represent various stages of the hunt: Detection and pursuit. A final evolutionary model is proposed in order to display the advantages over inter-generational time scales and illustrates how a bladder may evolve from an osmoregulatory organ to one of the storage. Data sets were generated for each case and analysed indicating the viability of such advantages. From the highly consistent results, three distinct characteristics of having a storage function in the urinary bladder are suggested: reduced scent trail detection rate; increased prey–predator separation (upon scent trail detection); and a reduced probability of successful capture upon scent detection by the predator. Furthered by the evolutionary model indicating such characteristics are conserved and augmented over many generations, it is concluded that prey–predator interactions provide a large selective pressure in the evolution of the urinary bladder and its storage function

An exploration of the use of simple statistics to measure consensus and stability in Delphi studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The criteria for stopping Delphi studies are often subjective. This study aimed to examine whether consensus and stability in the Delphi process can be ascertained by descriptive evaluation of trends in participants' views.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A three round email-based Delphi required participants (n = 12) to verify their level of agreement with 8 statements, write comments on each if they considered it necessary and rank the statements for importance. Each statement was analysed quantitatively by the percentage of agreement ratings, importance rankings and the amount of comments made for each statement, and qualitatively using thematic analysis. Importance rankings between rounds were compared by calculating Kappa values to observe trends in how the process impacts on subject's views.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Evolution of consensus was shown by increase in agreement percentages, convergence of range with standard deviations of importance ratings, and a decrease in the number of comments made. Stability was demonstrated by a trend of increasing Kappa values.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Following the original use of Delphi in social sciences, Delphi is suggested to be an effective way to gain and measure group consensus in healthcare. However, the proposed analytical process should be followed to ensure maximum validity of results in Delphi methodology for improved evidence of consensual decision-making.</p

Simultaneous Analysis of All SNPs in Genome-Wide and Re-Sequencing Association Studies

Testing one SNP at a time does not fully realise the potential of genome-wide association studies to identify multiple causal variants, which is a plausible scenario for many complex diseases. We show that simultaneous analysis of the entire set of SNPs from a genome-wide study to identify the subset that best predicts disease outcome is now feasible, thanks to developments in stochastic search methods. We used a Bayesian-inspired penalised maximum likelihood approach in which every SNP can be considered for additive, dominant, and recessive contributions to disease risk. Posterior mode estimates were obtained for regression coefficients that were each assigned a prior with a sharp mode at zero. A non-zero coefficient estimate was interpreted as corresponding to a significant SNP. We investigated two prior distributions and show that the normal-exponential-gamma prior leads to improved SNP selection in comparison with single-SNP tests. We also derived an explicit approximation for type-I error that avoids the need to use permutation procedures. As well as genome-wide analyses, our method is well-suited to fine mapping with very dense SNP sets obtained from re-sequencing and/or imputation. It can accommodate quantitative as well as case-control phenotypes, covariate adjustment, and can be extended to search for interactions. Here, we demonstrate the power and empirical type-I error of our approach using simulated case-control data sets of up to 500 K SNPs, a real genome-wide data set of 300 K SNPs, and a sequence-based dataset, each of which can be analysed in a few hours on a desktop workstation

Forecasting stroke-like episodes and outcomes in mitochondrial disease

In this retrospective, multicentre, observational cohort study, we sought to determine the clinical, radiological, EEG, genetics and neuropathological characteristics of mitochondrial stroke-like episodes and to identify associated risk predictors. Between January 1998 and June 2018, we identified 111 patients with genetically-determined mitochondrial disease who developed stroke-like episodes. Post-mortem cases of mitochondrial disease (n = 26) were identified from Newcastle Brain Tissue Resource. The primary outcome was to interrogate the clinic-radio-pathological correlates and prognostic indicators of stroke-like episode in patients with mitochondrial encephalomyopathy, lactic acidosis and stroke-like episodes syndrome. The secondary objective was to develop a multivariable prediction model to forecast stroke-like episode risk. The most common genetic cause of stroke-like episodes was the m.3243A>G variant in MT-TL1 (n = 66), followed by recessive pathogenic POLG variants (n = 22), and 11 other rarer pathogenic mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variants (n = 23). The age of first stroke-like episode was available for 105 patients (mean [SD] age: 31.8 [16.1]); a total of 35 patients (32%) presented with their first stroke-like episode ≥40 years of age. The median interval (interquartile range) between first and second stroke-like episodes was 1.33 (2.86) years; 43% of patients developed recurrent stroke-like episodes within 12 months. Clinico-radiological, electrophysiological and neuropathological findings of stroke-like episodes were consistent with the hallmarks of medically refractory epilepsy. Patients with POLG-related stroke-like episodes demonstrated more fulminant disease trajectories than cases of m.3243A>G and other mtDNA pathogenic variants, in terms of the frequency of refractory status epilepticus, rapidity of progression and overall mortality. In multivariate analysis, baseline factors of body mass index, age-adjusted blood m.3243A>G heteroplasmy, sensorineural hearing loss and serum lactate were significantly associated with risk of stroke-like episodes in patients with the m.3243A>G variant. These factors informed the development of a prediction model to assess the risk of developing stroke-like episodes that demonstrated good overall discrimination (area under the curve = 0.87, 95% CI 0.82-0.93; c-statistic = 0.89). Significant radiological and pathological features of neurodegeneration was more evident in patients harbouring pathogenic mtDNA variants compared with POLG: brain atrophy on cranial MRI (90% vs 44%, p G variant can help inform more tailored genetic counselling and prognostication in routine clinical practice

Partition function of N = 2* SYM on a large four-sphere

We examine the partition function of N=2* supersymmetric SU(N) Yang-Mills theory on the four-sphere in the large radius limit. We point out that the large radius partition function, at fixed N, is computed by saddle points lying on particular walls of marginal stability on the Coulomb branch of the theory on R^4. For N an even (odd) integer and \theta_YM=0, (\pi), these include a point of maximal degeneration of the Donagi-Witten curve to a torus where BPS dyons with electric charge [N/2] become massless. We argue that the dyon singularity is the lone saddle point in the SU(2) theory, while for SU(N) with N>2, we characterize potentially competing saddle points by obtaining the relations between the Seiberg-Witten periods at such points. Using Nekrasov's instanton partition function, we solve for the maximally degenerate saddle point and obtain its free energy as a function of g_YM and N, and show that the results are "large-N exact". In the large-N theory our results provide analytical expressions for the periods/eigenvalues at the maximally degenerate saddle point, precisely matching previously known formulae following from the correspondence between N=2* theory and the elliptic Calogero-Moser integrable model. The maximally singular point ceases to be a saddle point of the partition function above a critical value of the coupling, in agreement with the recent findings of Russo and Zarembo

Continental drift and climate change drive instability in insect assemblages

Global change has already had observable effects on ecosystems worldwide, and the accelerated rate of global change is predicted in the future. However, the impacts of global change on the stability of biodiversity have not been systematically studied in terms of both large spatial (continental drift) and temporal (from the last inter-glacial period to the next century) scales. Therefore, we analyzed the current geographical distribution pattern of Plecoptera, a thermally sensitive insect group, and evaluated its stability when coping with global change across both space and time throughout the Mediterranean region—one of the first 25 global biodiversity hotspots. Regional biodiversity of Plecoptera reflected the geography in both the historical movements of continents and the current environmental conditions in the western Mediterranean region. The similarity of Plecoptera assemblages between areas in this region indicated that the uplift of new land and continental drift were the primary determinants of the stability of regional biodiversity. Our results revealed that climate change caused the biodiversity of Plecoptera to slowly diminish in the past and will cause remarkably accelerated biodiversity loss in the future. These findings support the theory that climate change has had its greatest impact on biodiversity over a long temporal scale.This study was supported by a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant provided by the Korean government (MEST) (No. 2010-0027360)