Expected health benefits of SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists in older adults

Background. Older and sicker adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) were underrepresented in randomized trials of glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor-agonist (GLP1RA) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2I), and thus, health benefits are uncertain in this population. Objective. To assess the impact of age, health status, and life expectancy in older adults with T2D on health benefits of GLP1RA and SGLT2I. Design. We used the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) model to simulate lifetime health outcomes. We calibrated the UKPDS model to improve mortality prediction in older adults using a common geriatric prognostic index. Participants. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013–2018 participants 65 y and older with T2D, eligible for GLP1RA or SGLT2I according to American Diabetes Association guidelines. Interventions. GLP1RA or SGLT2I use versus no additional medication. Main Measures. Lifetime complications and weighted life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) across overall treatment arms and life expectancies. Key Results. The overall older adult population was predicted to experience significant health benefits from GLP1RA (+0.29 LY [95% confidence interval: 0.27, 0.31], +0.15 QALYs [0.14, 0.16]) and SGLT2I (+0.26 LY [0.24, 0.28], +0.13 QALYs [0.12, 0.14]) as compared with no added medication. However, expected benefits declined in subgroups with shorter life expectancies. Participants with <4 y of life expectancy had minimal gains of <0.05 LY and <0.03 QALYs from added medication. Accounting for injection-related disutility, GLP1RA use reduced QALYs (−0.03 QALYs [−0.04, −0.02]). Conclusions. While GLP1RA and SGLT2I have substantial health benefits for many older adults with type 2 diabetes, benefits are not clinically significant in patients with <4 y of life expectancy. Life expectancy and patient preferences are important considerations when prescribing newer diabetes medications

Development and validation of a decision analytical model for posttreatment surveillance for patients with oropharyngeal carcinoma

Importance Clinical practice regarding posttreatment radiologic surveillance for patients with oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPC) is neither adapted to individual patient risk nor fully evidence based. Objectives To construct a microsimulation model for posttreatment OPC progression and use it to optimize surveillance strategies while accounting for both tumor stage and human papillomavirus (HPV) status. Design, Setting, and Participants In this decision analytical modeling study, a Markov model of 3-year posttreatment patient trajectories was created. The training data source was the American College of Surgeon’s National Cancer Database from 2010 to 2015. The external validation data set was the 2016 International Collaboration on Oropharyngeal Cancer Network for Staging (ICON-S) study. Training data comprised 2159 patients with OPC treated with primary radiotherapy who had known HPV status and disease staging information. Patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer, 7th edition stage III to IVB disease and those with clinical metastases during the time of primary treatment were included. Data were analyzed from August 1 to October 31, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures Main outcomes included disease stage and HPV status, specific disease transition probabilities, and latency of surveillance regimens, defined as time between recurrence incidence and disease discovery. Results Training data consisted of 2159 total patients (1708 men [79.1%]; median age, 59.6 years [range, 40-90 years]; 401 with stage III disease, 1415 with stage IVA disease, and 343 with stage IVB disease). Cohorts predominantly had HPV-negative disease (1606 [74.4%]). With model-optimized regimens, recurrent disease was discovered a mean of 0.6 months (95% CI, 0.5-0.8 months) earlier than with a standard surveillance regimen based on current clinical guidelines. Recurrent disease was discovered using the optimized regimens without significant reduction in sensitivity. Compared with strategies based on reimbursement guidelines, the model-optimized regimens found disease a mean of 1.8 months (95% CI, 1.3-2.3 months) earlier. Conclusions and Relevance Optimized, risk-stratified surveillance regimens consistently outperformed nonoptimized strategies. These gains were obtained without requiring any additional imaging studies. This approach to risk-stratified surveillance optimization is generalizable to a broad range of tumor types and risk factors

The longer-term benefits and harms of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Previous meta-analyses of the benefits and harms of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1RAs) have been limited to specific outcomes and comparisons and often included short-term results. We aimed to estimate the longer-term effects of GLP1RAs on cardiovascular risk factors, microvascular and macrovascular complications, mortality, and adverse events in patients with type 2 diabetes, compared to placebo and other anti-hyperglycemic medications. Methods We searched PubMed, Scopus, and clinicaltrials.gov (inception–July 2019) for randomized controlled trials ≥ 52 weeks’ duration that compared a GLP1RA to placebo or other anti-hyperglycemic medication and included at least one outcome of interest. Outcomes included cardiovascular risk factors, microvascular and macrovascular complications, all-cause mortality, and treatment-related adverse events. We performed random effects meta-analyses to give summary estimates using weighted mean differences (MD) and pooled relative risks (RR). Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias in randomized trials tool. Quality of evidence was summarized using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach. The study was registered a priori with PROSPERO (CRD42018090506). Results Forty-five trials with a mean duration of 1.7 years comprising 71,517 patients were included. Compared to placebo, GLP1RAs reduced cardiovascular risk factors, microvascular complications (including renal events, RR 0.85, 0.80–0.90), macrovascular complications (including stroke, RR 0.86, 0.78–0.95), and mortality (RR 0.89, 0.84–0.94). Compared to other anti-hyperglycemic medications, GLP1RAs only reduced cardiovascular risk factors. Increased gastrointestinal events causing treatment discontinuation were observed in both comparisons. Discussion GLP1RAs reduced cardiovascular risk factors and increased gastrointestinal events compared to placebo and other anti-hyperglycemic medications. GLP1RAs also reduced MACE, stroke, renal events, and mortality in comparisons with placebo; however, analyses were inconclusive for comparisons with other anti-hyperglycemic medications. Given the high costs of GLP1RAs, the lack of long-term evidence comparing GLP1RAs to other anti-hyperglycemic medications has significant policy and clinical practice implications

Longer-term benefits and risks of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors in Type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2Is) are a recent class of medication approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Previous meta-analyses have quantified the benefits and harms of SGLT2Is; however, these analyses have been limited to specific outcomes and comparisons and included trials of short duration. We comprehensively reviewed the longer-term benefits and harms of SGLT2Is compared to placebo or other anti-hyperglycemic medications. Methods We searched PubMed, Scopus, and clinicaltrials.gov from inception to July 2019 for randomized controlled trials of minimum 52 weeks’ duration that enrolled adults with T2D, compared an SGLT2I to either placebo or other anti-hyperglycemic medications, and reported at least one outcome of interest including cardiovascular risk factors, microvascular and macrovascular complications, mortality, and adverse events. We conducted random effects meta-analyses to provide summary estimates using weighted mean differences (MD) and pooled relative risks (RR). The study was registered a priori with PROSPERO (CRD42018090506). Results Fifty articles describing 39 trials (vs. placebo, n = 28; vs. other anti-hyperglycemic medication, n = 12; vs. both, n = 1) and 112,128 patients were included in our analyses. Compared to placebo, SGLT2Is reduced cardiovascular risk factors (e.g., hemoglobin A1c, MD − 0.55%, 95% CI − 0.62, − 0.49), macrovascular outcomes (e.g., hospitalization for heart failure, RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.62, 0.78), and mortality (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80, 0.94). Compared to other anti-hyperglycemic medications, SGLT2Is reduced cardiovascular risk factors, but insufficient data existed for other outcomes. About a fourfold increased risk of genital yeast infections for both genders was observed for comparisons vs. placebo and other anti-hyperglycemic medications. Discussion We found that SGLT2Is led to durable reductions in cardiovascular risk factors compared to both placebo and other anti-hyperglycemic medications. Reductions in macrovascular complications and mortality were only observed in comparisons with placebo, although trials comparing SGLT2Is vs. other anti-hyperglycemic medications were not designed to assess longer-term outcomes