The Turning Point for Russian Foreign Policy

This Letort Paper analyzes the drivers of assertive military action by Russia, as exemplified by interventions in Ukraine and Syria. It identifies key turning points in Russia’s perception of external threat, and the roots of Russian responses to this threat making use of a capacity for military, political, and diplomatic leverage that has been greatly enhanced in the current decade. Color revolutions, the Arab Spring, and Western intervention in Libya are all highlighted as key influencers leading to a Russian assessment that the developments in Ukraine and Syria presented direct security challenges to Russia, which needed to be addressed through direct action. This Letort Paper concludes with a range of policy recommendations intended to mitigate the risk of confrontation with Russia through an imperfect understanding of Russian security perspectives.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1291/thumbnail.jp

Russian Ballistic Missile Defense: Rhetoric and Reality

Russia\u27s actions in Ukraine are not the only challenge to relations with the United States. U.S. plans for ballistic missile defense (BMD) capability in Europe have led to aggressive rhetoric from Moscow, which continues at the time of this writing even though attention in the West is focused almost exclusively on Ukraine. Russia’s strenuous opposition to the U.S. European Phased Adaptive Approach plans is based on claims that this capability is intended to compromise Russia’s nuclear deterrent capability. Most of these claims have been dismissed as groundless. Yet, all discussion of the subject highlights the U.S. current and proposed deployments, and entirely ignores Russia’s own missile interception systems, which are claimed to have comparable capability. Russia protests that U.S. missiles pose a potential threat to strategic stability, and has made belligerent threats of direct military action to prevent their deployment. But no mention at all is made of the strategic implications of Russia’s own systems, despite the fact that if the performance and capabilities claimed for them by Russian sources are accurate, they pose at least as great a threat to deterrence as do those of the United States. This monograph aims to describe Russia’s claims for its missile defense systems, and, where possible, to assess the likelihood that these claims are true. This will form a basis for considering whether discussion of Russian capabilities should be an integral part of future conversations with Russia on the deployment of U.S. and allied BMD assets.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1451/thumbnail.jp

Command Decision: Ethical Leadership in the Information Environment

This monograph considers how a classical challenge that commanders face in war—namely, making critical decisions on the basis of limited and often unreliable information—has been exacerbated in the era of big data. Data overload complicates the intelligence community’s efforts to identify and exclude disinformation, misinformation, and deception, and thus hampers its ability to deliver reliable intelligence to inform decision-makers in a timely manner. The military commander remains responsible for making a final decision, yet the great wealth of data now available through the intelligence cycle amplifies the risk of decision paralysis. With this in mind, technological solutions tend to be considered the most appropriate response for managing data overload and disinformation. While these remain relevant, they alone may be insufficient to equip the military commander with the necessary insight to guide decisions through the uncertainty of the big data environment. Rather, the military commander must cultivate a range of new behaviors in order to avoid decision paralysis and fulfill the distinct leadership roles a commander must play at the various stages of the intelligence processhttps://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1934/thumbnail.jp

Prospects for the Rule of Law in Cyberspace

The application of international law and legal principles in cyberspace is a topic that has caused confusion, doubt, and interminable discussions between lawyers since the earliest days of the internationalization of the Internet. The still unresolved debate over whether cyberspace constitutes a fundamentally new domain that requires fundamentally new laws to govern it reveals basic ideological divides. On the one hand, the Euro-Atlantic community led by the United States believes, in broad terms, that activities in cyberspace require no new legislation, and existing legal obligations are sufficient. On the other, a large number of other states led by Russia and China believe that new international legal instruments are essential in order to govern information security overall, including those expressed through the evolving domain of cyberspace. Russia in particular argues that the challenges presented by cyberspace are too urgent to wait for customary law to develop as it has done in other domains; instead, urgent action is needed. This Letort Paper will provide an overview of moves toward establishing norms and the rule of law in cyberspace, and the potential for establishing further international norms of behavior.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1295/thumbnail.jp

Training Humans for the Human Domain

Experience from Afghanistan and Iraq has demonstrated the vital nature of understanding human terrain, with conclusions relevant far beyond counterinsurgency operations in the Islamic world. Any situation where adversary actions are described as “irrational” demonstrates a fundamental failure in understanding the human dimension of the conflict. It follows that where states and their leaders act in a manner which in the U.S. is perceived as irrational, this too betrays a lack of human knowledge. This monograph offers principles for operating in the human domain which can be extended to consideration of other actors which are adversarial to the United States, and whose decisionmaking calculus sits in a different framework to our own — including such major states as Russia and China. This monograph argues that the human dimension has become more, not less, important in recent conflicts and that for all the rise in technology future conflicts will be as much defined by the participants’ understanding of culture, behavior, and language as by mastery of technology.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1434/thumbnail.jp

European Missile Defense and Russia

View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the history of missile defense and the current dialogue from a Russian perspective, in order to explain the root causes of Russian alarm. Specific recommendations for managing the Russia relationship in the context of missile defense are given. Important conclusions are also drawn for the purpose of managing the dialogue over missile defense plans not only with Russia as an opponent, but also with European NATO allies as partners and hosts. The latter are especially significant in the light of these partners\u27 heightened hard security concerns following Russian annexation of Crimea and continuing hostile moves against Ukraine. This analysis was completed before the start of Russia\u27s annexation of Crimea in March 2014, but already warned of the prospect of direct military action by Russia in Europe in order to protect Moscow\u27s self-perceived interests.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1487/thumbnail.jp

Management of imatinib-resistant CML patients

Imatinib has had marked impact on outcomes in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) patients for all stages of the disease and is endorsed by international treatment guidelines as the first line option. Although imatinib is highly effective and well tolerated, the development of resistance represents a clinical challenge. Since the most frequently identified mechanism of acquired imatinib resistance is bcr-abl kinase domain point mutations, periodic hematologic, cytogenetic, and molecular monitoring is critical throughout imatinib therapy. Once cytogenetic remission is achieved, residual disease can be monitored by bcr-abl transcript levels as assayed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Detection of bcr-abl mutants prior to and during imatinib therapy can aid in risk stratification as well as in determining therapeutic strategies. Thus, mutation screening is indicated in patients lacking or losing hematologic response. Moreover, search for mutations should also be performed when a 3-log reduction of bcr-abl transcripts is not achieved or there is a reproducible increase of transcript levels. In patients harboring mutations which confer imatinib resistance, novel second line tyrosine kinase inhibitors have demonstrated encouraging efficacy with low toxicity. Only the T315I bcr-abl mutant has proved totally resistant to all clinically available bcr-abl inhibitors. Strategies to further increase the rates of complete molecular remissions represent the next frontier in the targeted therapy of CML patients

Plasma concentration of Propionibacterium acnes antibodies and prostate cancer risk: results from an Australian population-based case–control study

Background:Recent studies in prostatic tissue suggest that Propionibacterium acnes (P. acnes), a bacterium associated with acne that normally lives on the skin, is the most prevalent bacterium in the prostate and in men with benign prostatic hyperplasia. Its prevalence is higher in samples from patients subsequently diagnosed with prostate cancer. The aim of our study was to test whether circulating levels of P. acnes antibodies are associated with prostate cancer risk and tumour characteristics using plasma samples from a population-based case-control study.Methods:We measured plasma concentration of P. acnes antibodies for 809 cases and 584 controls using a recently developed ELISA assay. We compared antibody titres between cases and controls using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for batch and variables associated with the study design (i.e., age, year of selection and centre). The primary analysis included P. acnes titres in the model as a dichotomous variable using the median value for controls as the cut-off value.Results:P. acnes antibody titres for both cases and controls ranged from 1: 16 (i.e., low concentration) to 1: 65 536 (i.e., high concentration; median value1: 1024). The odds ratio for prostate cancer associated with titres at or above the median value was 0.73 (95% CI 0.58-0.91, P0.005). The association appeared to be particularly strong for advanced prostate cancer (AJCC Stage grouping III-IV) for which the odds ratio was 0.59 (95% CI 0.43-0.81, P0.001) but there was insufficient evidence that the association differed by tumour stage (p heterogeneity0.07).Conclusion: These results need to be confirmed in prospective studies but they are consistent with the hypothesis that P. acnes has a role in prostate cancer. © 2010 Cancer Research UK All rights reserved

Gamma interferon induces different keratinocyte cellular patterns of expression of HLA-DR and DQ and intercellular adhesion molecule-I (ICAM-I) antigens

With indirect immunofluorescence techniques we demonstrated that recombinant gamma-interferon induced the expression of the class II antigens HLA-DR and HLA-DQ as well as intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) on normal, cultured human keratinocytes grown in low-calcium, serum-free medium. Each antigen displayed a distinctive cellular staining pattern. HLA-DR was strongly localized to perinuclear zones with intense cell surface expression; HLA-DQ displayed a perinuclear accentuation, but with minimal cell surface staining, and ICAM-1 was strongly expressed in a diffuse cytoplasmic pattern with intense cell surface expression. Keratinocytes grown in medium supplemented with 10% fetal calf serum underwent differentiation, with a diminished expression of all three antigens as compared to those grown in low-calcium, serum-free medium. These results confirm that gamma interferon can differentially regulate HLA-DR nd HLA-DQ expression; that there are probably different biochemical metabolic pathways by which these three molecules are expressed on keratinocytes, and that the expression is also a function of the degree of keratinocyte differentiation. The strong cell surface expression of ICAM-1 is suggested to be of major importance as the recognition molecule, by which T cells bind to gamma interferon exposed keratinocytes, and suggests and integral role for this molecule in epidermal lymphocyte trafficking.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74686/1/j.1365-2133.1989.tb07759.x.pd