"Predictability of body mass index for diabetes: Affected by the presence of metabolic syndrome?"

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Metabolic syndrome (MetS) and body mass index (BMI, kg.m^-2) are established independent risk factors in the development of diabetes; we prospectively examined their relative contributions and joint relationship with incident diabetes in a Middle Eastern cohort.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>participants of the ongoing Tehran lipid and glucose study are followed on a triennial basis. Among non-diabetic participants aged≥ 20 years at baseline (8,121) those with at least one follow-up examination (5,250) were included for the current study. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate sex-specific adjusted odd ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of baseline BMI-MetS categories (normal weight without MetS as reference group) for incident diabetes among 2186 men and 3064 women, aged ≥ 20 years, free of diabetes at baseline.</p> <p>Result</p> <p>During follow up (median 6.5 years); there were 369 incident diabetes (147 in men). In women without MetS, the multivariate adjusted ORs (95% CIs) for overweight (BMI 25-30 kg/m2) and obese (BMI≥30) participants were 2.3 (1.2-4.3) and 2.2 (1.0-4.7), respectively. The corresponding ORs for men without MetS were 1.6 (0.9-2.9) and 3.6 (1.5-8.4) respectively. As compared to the normal-weight/without MetS, normal-weight women and men with MetS, had a multivariate-adjusted ORs for incident diabetes of 8.8 (3.7-21.2) and 3.1 (1.3-7.0), respectively. The corresponding ORs for overweight and obese women with MetS reached to 7.7 (4.0-14.9) and 12.6 (6.9-23.2) and for men reached to 3.4(2.0-5.8) and 5.7(3.9-9.9), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study highlights the importance of screening for MetS in normal weight individuals. Obesity increases diabetes risk in the absence of MetS, underscores the need for more stringent criteria to define healthy metabolic state among obese individuals. Weight reduction measures, thus, should be encouraged in conjunction with achieving metabolic targets not addressed by current definition of MetS, both in every day encounter and public health setting.</p

Population-based incidence of Type 2 diabetes and its associated risk factors: results from a six-year cohort study in Iran

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Middle East is estimated to have the largest increase in prevalence of diabetes by 2030; yet there is lack of published data on the incidence of Type 2 diabetes in this region. This study aimed to estimate Type 2 diabetes incidence and its associated risk factors in an Iranian urban population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Among 3307 non-diabetics ≥ 20 years (mean age 42 ± 13 years, 42% males), glucose tolerance test was performed at baseline in 1999–2001 and at two consecutive phases in 2001–2005 and 2005–2008. Diabetes and glucose tolerance status were defined according to the ADA 1997 criteria. Logistic regression was used to determine the independent variables associated with incident diabetes and their odds ratios (OR).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After median follow-up of 6 years, 237 new cases of diabetes were ascertained corresponding to an age and sex standardized cumulative incidence of 6.4% (95%CI: 5.6–7.2) and incidence rate of 10.6 (9.2–12.1) per 1000 person years. Besides classical diabetes risk factors, female sex and low education level significantly increased risk of diabetes in age adjusted models. In full model, the independent predictors were age [OR, 95%CI: 1.2 (1.1–1.3)], family history of diabetes [1.8 (1.3–2.5)], body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m²[2.3 (1.5–3.6)], abdominal obesity [1.9 (1.4–2.6)], high triglyceride [1.4 (1.1–1.9)], Isolated impaired fasting glucose (IFG) [7.4 (3.6–15.0)], Isolated impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) [5.9 (4.2–8.4)] and combined IFG and IGT [42.2 (23.8–74.9)].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>More than 1% of the Iranian urban population older than 20 years develops Type 2 diabetes each year. Combination of IFG and IGT was the strongest predictor of incident diabetes among the modifiable risk factors.</p