Informing the Financing of Universal Energy Access: An Assessment of Current Flows

Energy poverty is widely recognized as a major obstacle to economic and social development and poverty alleviation. To help inform the design of appropriate and effective policies to reduce energy poverty, we present a brief analysis of the current macro financial flows in the electricity and gas distribution sectors in developing countries. We build on the methodology used to quantify the flows of investment in the climate change area. This methodology relies on national gross fixed capital formation, overseas development assistance, and foreign direct investment. These high-level and aggregated investment figures provide a sense of scale to policy-makers, but are only a small part of the information required to design financial vehicles. In addition, these figures tend to mask numerous variations between sectors and countries, as well as trends and other temporal fluctuations. Nonetheless, for the poorest countries, one can conclude that the current flows are considerably short (at least five times) of what will be required to provide a basic level of access to clean, modern energy services to the “energy poor”.Energy Access, Energy Finance, Financial flows

Visualization of Recombinant DNA and Protein Complexes Using Atomic Force Microscopy

Atomic force microscopy (AFM) allows for the visualizing of individual proteins, DNA molecules, protein-protein complexes, and DNA-protein complexes. On the end of the microscope's cantilever is a nano-scale probe, which traverses image areas ranging from nanometers to micrometers, measuring the elevation of macromolecules resting on the substrate surface at any given point. Electrostatic forces cause proteins, lipids, and nucleic acids to loosely attach to the substrate in random orientations and permit imaging. The generated data resemble a topographical map, where the macromolecules resolve as three-dimensional particles of discrete sizes (Figure 1) 1,2. Tapping mode AFM involves the repeated oscillation of the cantilever, which permits imaging of relatively soft biomaterials such as DNA and proteins. One of the notable benefits of AFM over other nanoscale microscopy techniques is its relative adaptability to visualize individual proteins and macromolecular complexes in aqueous buffers, including near-physiologic buffered conditions, in real-time, and without staining or coating the sample to be imaged

Acting Out Ideas: Performative Citizenship in the Black Consciousness Movement

This paper introduces the concept of ‘performative citizenship’ to account for the manner in which the Black Consciousness Movement (BCM), and in particular its charismatic leader Steve Biko, transformed a collection of relatively abstract philosophical ideas into concrete political practice. We outline how the BCM challenged the psychological internalisation of white supremacy and asserted citizenship claims through a variety of performative techniques, many of which explicitly and implicitly reiterated earlier rights-based claims both in South Africa and abroad. We show how this took place within a remarkably restrictive context, which on the one hand constrained performances, but on the other augmented their dramatic efficacy. The paper makes an argument about the performance of counter-power, showing how whilst the apartheid complex retained its command over economic, military, and political power, it struggled to control the social drama that was unfolding on the cultural plane, therefore losing its grip on one key element of ideological power. Finally, the paper also makes a methodological contribution to reception studies by showing how researching the reception of ideas exclusively through the spoken or written word neglects other modes through which ideas might find expression, especially in contexts of pervasive censorship and political repression.The research leading to these results has received funding from a Leverhulme Trust Early Career Fellowship, the Isaac Newton Trust, and the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant Agreement no319974 (INTERCO-SSH)

Investigation of 89 candidate gene variants for effects on all-cause mortality following acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND: Many candidate genes have been reported to be risk factors for acute coronary syndrome (ACS), but their impact on clinical prognosis following ACS is unknown. METHODS: We examined the association of putative genetic risk factors with 3-year post-ACS mortality in 811 ACS survivors at university-affiliated hospitals in Kansas City, Missouri. Through a systematic literature search, we first identified genetic variants reported as susceptibility factors for atherosclerosis or ACS. Restricting our analysis to whites, so as to avoid confounding from racial admixture, we genotyped ACS cases for 89 genetic variants in 72 genes, and performed individual Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. We then performed Cox regression to create multivariate risk prediction models that further minimized potential confounding. RESULTS: Of 89 variants tested, 16 were potentially associated with mortality (P < 0.1 for all), of which 6 were significantly associated (P < 0.05) with mortality following ACS. While these findings are not more than what would be expected by chance (P = 0.28), even after Bonferroni correction and adjustment for traditional cardiac risk factors, the IRS1 972Arg variant association (P = 0.001) retained borderline statistical significance (P < 0.1). CONCLUSION: With the possible exception of IRS1, we conclude that multiple candidate genes were not associated with post-ACS mortality in our patient cohort. Because of power limitations, the 16 gene variants with P values < 0.1 may warrant further study. Our data do not support the hypothesis that the remaining 73 genes have substantial, clinically significant association with mortality after an ACS

Small domain estimation of census coverage: A case study in Bayesian analysis of complex survey data

Many countries conduct a full census survey to report official population statistics. As no census survey ever achieves 100 per cent response rate, a post-enumeration survey (PES) is usually conducted and analysed to assess census coverage and produce official population estimates by geographic area and demographic attributes. Considering the usually small size of PES, direct estimation at the desired level of disaggregation is not feasible. Design-based estimation with sampling weight adjustment is a commonly used method but is difficult to implement when survey non-response patterns cannot be fully documented and population benchmarks are not available. We overcome these limitations with a fully model-based Bayesian approach applied to the New Zealand PES. Although theory for the Bayesian treatment of complex surveys has been described, published applications of individual level Bayesian models for complex survey data remain scarce. We provide such an application through a case study of the 2018 census and PES surveys. We implement a multilevel model that accounts for the complex design of PES. We then illustrate how mixed posterior predictive checking and cross-validation can assist with model building and model selection. Finally, we discuss potential methodological improvements to the model and potential solutions to mitigate dependence between the two surveys.Comment: 35 pages, 5 figures This is an author version of a paper accepted for publication in the Journal of Official Statistics. Once published by the Journal of Official Statistics use the Journal citation. This version includes supplementary material and corrected version of Figure

3-manifold invariants and periodicity of homology spheres

We show how the periodicity of a homology sphere is reflected in the Reshetikhin-Turaev-Witten invariants of the manifold. These yield a criterion for the periodicity of a homology sphere.Comment: Published by Algebraic and Geometric Topology at http://www.maths.warwick.ac.uk/agt/AGTVol2/agt-2-34.abs.htm

Northern Bobwhite Survival Related to Movement on a Reclaimed Surface Coal Mine

Reclaimed coal mines represent opportunity to provide large tracts of early succession habitat essential to northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) populations. However, little research has been conducted to explore the potential of reclaimed mine sites and examine bobwhite ecology on these unique areas. Reclaimed mines in Kentucky were planted to non-native species, such as sericea lespedeza (Lespedeza cuneata) and tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea), which do not provide suitable structure for northern bobwhite brood-rearing and movement. Fallow disking (in blocks and linear firebreaks) and planting food plots are part of current management efforts to improve food availability and habitat structure for broods. We trapped and radiomarked 266 northern bobwhites between April 2010 and September 2011 on Peabody Wildlife Management Area, a 3,330-ha reclaimed coal mine in western Kentucky, USA to investigate the effects of current management practices on movement and survival. We calculated seasonal daily movement as the Euclidean distance from a location on day 1 to day 2. Breeding season (1 Apr-30 Sep) movement averaged 128 m in 2010 and 147 m in 2011. Daily movement averaged 163 m during the 2010–2011 non-breeding (1 Oct-31 Mar) season. Multiple regression analysis indicated annual food plots, disk blocks, firebreaks, and roads did not explain variation within daily movement regardless of season (R2 0.04). Individual bird/covey, precipitation, hours between locations, and average temperature also poorly explained movement variation. We used Program MARK to model the effect of season, year, mean daily movement, mean distance to annual food plots, disk blocks, firebreaks, and roads on survival. The season (breeding/non-breeding) model explained 81% of the variation in survival, and the year model explained 13%, suggesting management was not driving survival. We do not believe disking should be discontinued, although it did not influence movement, as it can improve vegetation structure important to nest-site selection and broods

Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.Energy Access, Power System Planning, Sub-Saharan Africa