Models of epidemics: when contact repetition and clustering should be included

Background The spread of infectious disease is determined by biological factors, e.g. the duration of the infectious period, and social factors, e.g. the arrangement of potentially contagious contacts. Repetitiveness and clustering of contacts are known to be relevant factors influencing the transmission of droplet or contact transmitted diseases. However, we do not yet completely know under what conditions repetitiveness and clustering should be included for realistically modelling disease spread. Methods We compare two different types of individual-based models: One assumes random mixing without repetition of contacts, whereas the other assumes that the same contacts repeat day-by-day. The latter exists in two variants, with and without clustering. We systematically test and compare how the total size of an outbreak differs between these model types depending on the key parameters transmission probability, number of contacts per day, duration of the infectious period, different levels of clustering and varying proportions of repetitive contacts. Results The simulation runs under different parameter constellations provide the following results: The difference between both model types is highest for low numbers of contacts per day and low transmission probabilities. The number of contacts and the transmission probability have a higher influence on this difference than the duration of the infectious period. Even when only minor parts of the daily contacts are repetitive and clustered can there be relevant differences compared to a purely random mixing model. Conclusion We show that random mixing models provide acceptable estimates of the total outbreak size if the number of contacts per day is high or if the per-contact transmission probability is high, as seen in typical childhood diseases such as measles. In the case of very short infectious periods, for instance, as in Norovirus, models assuming repeating contacts will also behave similarly as random mixing models. If the number of daily contacts or the transmission probability is low, as assumed for MRSA or Ebola, particular consideration should be given to the actual structure of potentially contagious contacts when designing the model.ISSN:1742-468

Serum and Tissue Biomarkers Associated With Composite of Relevant Endpoints for Sj\uf6gren Syndrome (CRESS) and Sj\uf6gren Tool for Assessing Response (STAR) to B Cell–Targeted Therapy in the Trial of Anti–B Cell Therapy in Patients With Primary Sj\uf6gren Syndrome (TRACTISS)

\ua9 2023 The Authors. Arthritis & Rheumatology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American College of Rheumatology.Objective: This study aimed to identify peripheral and salivary gland (SG) biomarkers of response/resistance to B cell depletion based on the novel concise Composite of Relevant Endpoints for Sj\uf6gren Syndrome (cCRESS) and candidate Sj\uf6gren Tool for Assessing Response (STAR) composite endpoints. Methods: Longitudinal analysis of peripheral blood and SG biopsies was performed pre- and post-treatment from the Trial of Anti–B Cell Therapy in Patients With Primary Sj\uf6gren Syndrome (TRACTISS) combining flow cytometry immunophenotyping, serum cytokines, and SG bulk RNA sequencing. Results: Rituximab treatment prevented the worsening of SG inflammation observed in the placebo arm, by inhibiting the accumulation of class-switched memory B cells within the SG. Furthermore, rituximab significantly down-regulated genes involved in immune-cell recruitment, lymphoid organization alongside antigen presentation, and T cell co-stimulatory pathways. In the peripheral compartment, rituximab down-regulated immunoglobulins and auto-antibodies together with pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines. Interestingly, patients classified as responders according to STAR displayed significantly higher baseline levels of C-X-C motif chemokine ligand-13 (CXCL13), interleukin (IL)-22, IL-17A, IL-17F, and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), whereas a longitudinal analysis of serum T cell–related cytokines showed a selective reduction in both STAR and cCRESS responder patients. Conversely, cCRESS response was better associated with biomarkers of SG immunopathology, with cCRESS-responders showing a significant decrease in SG B cell infiltration and reduced expression of transcriptional gene modules related to T cell costimulation, complement activation, and Fcγ-receptor engagement. Finally, cCRESS and STAR response were associated with a significant improvement in SG exocrine function linked to transcriptional evidence of SG epithelial and metabolic restoration. Conclusion: Rituximab modulates both peripheral and SG inflammation, preventing the deterioration of exocrine function with functional and metabolic restoration of the glandular epithelium. Response assessed by newly developed cCRESS and STAR criteria was associated with differential modulation of peripheral and SG biomarkers, emerging as novel tools for patient stratification. (Figure presented.)

The Future of Biologic Agents in the Treatment of Sjögren’s Syndrome

The gain in knowledge regarding the cellular mechanisms of T and B lymphocyte activity in the pathogenesis of Sjögren’s syndrome (SS) and the current availability of various biological agents (anti-TNF-α, IFN- α, anti-CD20, and anti-CD22) have resulted in new strategies for therapeutic intervention. In SS, various phase I and II studies have been performed to evaluate these new strategies. Currently, B cell-directed therapies seem to be more promising than T cell-related therapies. However, large, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials are needed to confirm the promising results of these early studies. When performing these trials, special attention has to be paid to prevent the occasional occurrence of the severe side effects

Towards a characterization of behavior-disease models

The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single individuals. However, relatively little systematic work has been done to provide coupled behavior-disease models able to close the feedback loop between behavioral changes triggered in the population by an individual's perception of the disease spread and the actual disease spread itself. While models lacking this coupling can be extremely successful in mild epidemics, they obviously will be of limited use in situations where social disruption or behavioral alterations are induced in the population by knowledge of the disease. Here we propose a characterization of a set of prototypical mechanisms for self-initiated social distancing induced by local and non-local prevalence-based information available to individuals in the population. We characterize the effects of these mechanisms in the framework of a compartmental scheme that enlarges the basic SIR model by considering separate behavioral classes within the population. The transition of individuals in/out of behavioral classes is coupled with the spreading of the disease and provides a rich phase space with multiple epidemic peaks and tipping points. The class of models presented here can be used in the case of data-driven computational approaches to analyze scenarios of social adaptation and behavioral change.Comment: 24 pages, 15 figure

Quantitative gait analysis under dual-task in older people with mild cognitive impairment: a reliability study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Reliability of quantitative gait assessment while dual-tasking (walking while doing a secondary task such as talking) in people with cognitive impairment is unknown. Dual-tasking gait assessment is becoming highly important for mobility research with older adults since better reflects their performance in the basic activities of daily living. Our purpose was to establish the test-retest reliability of assessing quantitative gait variables using an electronic walkway in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) under single and dual-task conditions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The gait performance of 11 elderly individuals with MCI was evaluated using an electronic walkway (GAITRite^®System) in two sessions, one week apart. Six gait parameters (gait velocity, step length, stride length, step time, stride time, and double support time) were assessed under two conditions: single-task (sG: usual walking) and dual-task (dG: counting backwards from 100 while walking). Test-retest reliability was determined using intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). Gait variability was measured using coefficient of variation (CoV).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Eleven participants (average age = 76.6 years, SD = 7.3) were assessed. They were high functioning (Clinical Dementia Rating Score = 0.5) with a mean Mini-Mental Status Exam (MMSE) score of 28 (SD = 1.56), and a mean Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score of 22.8 (SD = 1.23). Under dual-task conditions, mean gait velocity (GV) decreased significantly (sGV = 119.11 ± 20.20 cm/s; dGV = 110.88 ± 19.76 cm/s; p = 0.005). Additionally, under dual-task conditions, higher gait variability was found on stride time, step time, and double support time. Test-retest reliability was high (ICC>0.85) for the six parameters evaluated under both conditions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In older people with MCI, variability of time-related gait parameters increased with dual-tasking suggesting cognitive control of gait performance. Assessment of quantitative gait variables using an electronic walkway is highly reliable under single and dual-task conditions. The presence of cognitive impairment did not preclude performance of dual-tasking in our sample supporting that this methodology can be reliably used in cognitive impaired older individuals.</p

Mitral Annular Disjunction in Idiopathic Ventricular Fibrillation Patients: Just a Bystander or a Potential Cause?

AIMS: Previously, we demonstrated that inferolateral mitral annular disjunction (MAD) is more prevalent in patients with idiopathic ventricular fibrillation (IVF) than in healthy controls. In the present study, we advanced the insights into the prevalence and ventricular arrhythmogenicity by inferolateral MAD in an even larger IVF cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: This retrospective multicentre study included 185 IVF patients (median age 39 [27, 52] years, 40% female). Cardiac magnetic resonance images were analysed for mitral valve and annular abnormalities and late gadolinium enhancement. Clinical characteristics were compared between patients with and without MAD. MAD in any of the 4 locations was present in 112 (61%) IVF patients and inferolateral MAD was identified in 24 (13%) IVF patients. Mitral valve prolapse (MVP) was found in 13 (7%) IVF patients. MVP was more prevalent in patients with inferolateral MAD compared with patients without inferolateral MAD(42% vs. 2%, p < 0.001). Proarrhythmic characteristics in terms of a high burden of premature ventricular complexes (PVC) and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) were more prevalent in patients with inferolateral MAD compared to patients without inferolateral MAD (67% vs. 23%, p < 0.001 and 63% vs 41%, p = 0.046, respectively). Appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy during follow-up was comparable for IVF patients with or without inferolateral MAD (13% vs. 18%, p = 0.579). CONCLUSION: A high prevalence of inferolateral MAD and MVP is a consistent finding in this large IVF cohort. The presence of inferolateral MAD is associated with a higher PVC burden and non-sustained VTs. Further research is needed to explain this potential interplay

Predictive factors of urinary tract infections among the oldest old in the general population. a population-based prospective follow-up study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Urinary tract infections (UTI) are common among the oldest old and may lead to a few days of illness, delirium or even to death. We studied the incidence and predictive factors of UTI among the oldest old in the general population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Leiden 85-plus Study is a population-based prospective follow-up study of 86-year-old subjects in Leiden, The Netherlands. Information on the diagnosis of UTI was obtained annually during four years of follow-up from the medical records and interviews of treating physicians. A total of 157 men and 322 women aged 86 years participated in the study. Possible predictive factors were collected at baseline, including history of UTI between the age of 85 and 86 years, aspects of functioning (cognitive impairment (Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) < 19), presence of depressive symptoms (Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) > 4), disability in activities of daily living (ADL)), and co-morbidities.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The incidence of UTI from age 86 through 90 years was 11.2 (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.4, 13.1) per 100 person-years at risk. Multivariate analysis showed that history of UTI between the age of 85 and 86 years (hazard ratio (HR) 3.4 (95% CI 2.4, 5.0)), impaired cognitive function (HR 1.9 (95% CI 1.3, 2.9)), disability in daily living (HR 1.7 (95% CI 1.1, 2.5)) and urine incontinence (HR 1.5 (95% CI 1.0, 2.1)) were independent predictors of an increased incidence of UTI from age 86 onwards.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Within the oldest old, a history of UTI between the age of 85 and 86 years, cognitive impairment, ADL disability and urine incontinence are independent predictors of developing UTI. These predictive factors could be used to target preventive measures to the oldest old at high risk of UTI.</p

A Timescale for Evolution, Population Expansion, and Spatial Spread of an Emerging Clone of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Due to the lack of fossil evidence, the timescales of bacterial evolution are largely unknown. The speed with which genetic change accumulates in populations of pathogenic bacteria, however, is a key parameter that is crucial for understanding the emergence of traits such as increased virulence or antibiotic resistance, together with the forces driving pathogen spread. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a common cause of hospital-acquired infections. We have investigated an MRSA strain (ST225) that is highly prevalent in hospitals in Central Europe. By using mutation discovery at 269 genetic loci (118,804 basepairs) within an international isolate collection, we ascertained extremely low diversity among European ST225 isolates, indicating that a recent population bottleneck had preceded the expansion of this clone. In contrast, US isolates were more divergent, suggesting they represent the ancestral population. While diversity was low, however, our results demonstrate that the short-term evolutionary rate in this natural population of MRSA resulted in the accumulation of measurable DNA sequence variation within two decades, which we could exploit to reconstruct its recent demographic history and the spatiotemporal dynamics of spread. By applying Bayesian coalescent methods on DNA sequences serially sampled through time, we estimated that ST225 had diverged since approximately 1990 (1987 to 1994), and that expansion of the European clade began in 1995 (1991 to 1999), several years before the new clone was recognized. Demographic analysis based on DNA sequence variation indicated a sharp increase of bacterial population size from 2001 to 2004, which is concordant with the reported prevalence of this strain in several European countries. A detailed ancestry-based reconstruction of the spatiotemporal dispersal dynamics suggested a pattern of frequent transmission of the ST225 clone among hospitals within Central Europe. In addition, comparative genomics indicated complex bacteriophage dynamics