Monetary Policy Rules and Directions of Causality: a Test for the Euro Area

Using a VAR model in first differences with quarterly data for the euro zone, the study aims to ascertain whether decisions on monetary policy can be interpreted in terms of a “monetary policy rule” with specific reference to the so-called nominal GDP targeting rule (Hall and Mankiw, 1994; McCallum, 1988; Woodford, 2012). The results obtained indicate a causal relation proceeding from deviation between the growth rates of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and target GDP to variation in the three-month market interest rate. The same analyses do not, however, appear to confirm the existence of a significant inverse causal relation from variation in the market interest rate to deviation between the nominal and target GDP growth rates. Similar results were obtained on replacing the market interest rate with the European Central Bank refinancing interest rate. This confirmation of only one of the two directions of causality does not support an interpretation of monetary policy based on the nominal GDP targeting rule and gives rise to doubt in more general terms as to the applicability of the Taylor rule and all the conventional rules of monetary policy to the case in question. The results appear instead to be more in line with other possible approaches, such as those based on post Keynesian analyses of monetary theory and policy and more specifically the so-called solvency rule (Brancaccio and Fontana, 2013, 2015). These lines of research challenge the simplistic argument that the scope of monetary policy consists in the stabilization of inflation, real GDP, or nominal income around a “natural equilibrium” level. Rather, they suggest that central banks actually follow a more complex purpose, which is the political regulation of the financial system with particular reference to the relations between creditors and debtors and the related solvency of economic units

Financialization and the monetary circuit : a macro-accounting approach

This paper aims to cross-breed the standard monetary circuit accounting model with elements from the Post-Keynesian literature. The goals are: (i) to analyse the implications of credit-based household consumption fed by capital asset inflation for the soundness of a pure credit-money economy of production; and (ii) to provide a more sophisticated description of the working of modern financial systems than the one grounded in the usual 'bank-based vs. market based' distinction

Basic income and the right to work: a Keynesian approach

Among the proposals for radical reform of social policy are basic income, which would pay an unconditional cash benefit to all individuals, and the right to work, which would offer guaranteed employment arranged by the state if necessary. This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of such reform proposals. It sets up a simple Keynesian income-expenditure model that includes basic income and the right to work as alternative methods of providing social assistance, along with the more traditional approach of paying unemployment benefits. The various schemes are compared and contrasted with regard to their implications for employment, stability, distribution, efficiency and the government budget. Potential benefits of basic income or the right to work are emphasised, despite the political obstacles to implementing them

Optimising ‘cash flows’:Converting corporate finance to hard currency

Following recent works that have underlined the increasing search for liquidity in economic exchange, this article studies how illiquid forms of money are converted into liquid forms by corporate finance actors. In the name of ‘shareholder value’, the various forms of value generated by companies (such as ‘trade credit’) tend to be increasingly transformed into liquid forms of money that are easily distributable to shareholders (‘cash flows’). Describing this phenomenon as an example of what anthropologists of money call ‘conversion’, this paper highlights how such a conversion process was necessary for the historical development of ‘shareholder value’ policies in corporate finance. Considering documentary sources and interviews with consultants, auditors, and private equity fund managers involved in ‘cash flow’ optimisation practices, this paper details this conversion phenomenon and shows how it has relied on the historical elaboration of specific metrological, technical, legal, and moral norms

Financial stability, wealth effects and optimal macroeconomic policy combination in the United Kingdom: A New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework

This study derives an optimal macroeconomic policy combination for financial sector stability in the United Kingdom by employing a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK-DSGE) framework. The empirical results obtained show that disciplined fiscal and accommodative monetary policies stance is optimal for financial sector stability. Furthermore, fiscal indiscipline countered by contractionary monetary stance adversely affects financial sector stability. Financial markets, e.g. stocks and Gilts show a short-term asymmetric response to macroeconomic policy interaction and to each other. The asymmetry is a reflection of portfolio adjustment. However in the long-run, the responses to suggested optimal policy combination had homogenous effects and there was evidence of co-movement in the stock and Gilt markets

Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment