Report on Recent Reports #6, Winter 2023-2024

The COP28 meeting in Dubai was a step forward, but the gap between what ought to be done to attain net zero emissions, and what is being done, may very well be widening. The 14 abstracts of authoritative multi-author reports collected here describe likely climate warming in the next decades (notably resulting in 26 potential Earth system tipping points), necessary transformative adaptations to mitigate warming (notably rethinking economics as if ecology mattered), an assessment of 14 potential “dead ends” leading to extinction of humanity, and a broad two-volume overview of existential risk studies

Putin’s Folly and Rethinking the SDGs

The invasion of Ukraine is widely seen as Putin’s war, because he has a retrograde obsession to make Russia great again by reclaiming parts of the former Soviet Union. But Russia’s autocrat made several huge miscalculations regarding his military efficacy, resistance by Ukraine, military support and strong economic sanctions by the US and other nations, and many corporations withdrawing from Russia. Putin may still “win” at a huge cost, or clearly lose; he may settle for a compromise, or a stalemate could last for many months or more. Overall, it will be a lose-lose war, not only for a devastated Ukraine and its many displaced citizens, but for the Russian economy, and the world, facing food security and energy security concerns, huge refugee problems, inflation, and supply chain problems. This setback, roughly equal to the many disruptions from the ongoing COVID-19 setback, could very well be worse. Putin’s foolish and costly military action will lead to greater military spending in NATO countries, at the expense of other forms of security, such as addressing climate change and the necessary energy transition. Attention will focus on military security, at a time when more emphasis should be devoted to the broader concept of human security and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. The two broad setbacks to the SDGs are likely to result in little or no progress, and even negative progress for some goals. In response, a forward-looking “war” for human security and sustainability is needed, by ongoing rethinking of the goals and their low visibility. We cannot have sustainability without security, and vice versa. Security aspects of the SDGs should be widely emphasized, as well as the most cost-effective actions for each goal, why investments now are needed to avoid steeply rising costs, and how to best promote the goals as a better and less expensive future for all

Greening Capitalism, Quietly: Seven Types of Organizations Driving the “Necessary Revolution”

In 2008, MIT’s Peter Senge et al. wrote that the Industrial Age bubble was ending and that, especially due to climate change, a “Necessary Revolution” was needed to create a sustainable flourishing world in the decades ahead. Since then, many business organizations have moved toward sustainability to some degree, and many other organizations have emerged, mostly non-profits, to help business and/or prod them to pursue ethical strategies. This report explains how the revolution is unfolding, by briefly mapping some 150 organizations that are driving the greening of capitalism, and grouping them in several meaningful categories: Business-Led Groups, Ethical Groups, Broadened Accounting Groups, Certifying Organizations, Green Investing Groups, Sustainability Consultants, and Green Business Publishing. Each of these groups is important in facilitating the revolution, especially those promoting corporate social responsibility, broader accounting practices, certification, and green investing. Among groups that list their beginning, the median start-up date was 2003—thus a doubling in 13 years. This revolution certainly appears to be well underway, leading to a contest between 21st Century Green (or Sustainable) Capitalism, valuing the triple bottom line of People/Planet/Profit to some degree vs. 20th Century Industrial Era Capitalism that adheres to a single bottom line and narrow accounting measures. But the revolution is a quiet one that is underappreciated, due to fragmentation and lack of leadership. Hopefully, if well-publicized and widely discussed, the January 2017 Better Business, Better World report of the Business and Sustainable Development Commission, making a strong all-win business case for pursuing the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals, could provide a large boost to the necessary revolution. In turn, this could energize the larger system of more than 1500 sustainability-related organizations that are identified in the 329-page April 2017 Interim Draft of The Security & Sustainability Guide. We are not yet winning the struggle for sustainability in our era of great and intensifying uncertainty and danger. But with cities and responsible business taking the lead, and with more horizontal thinking that includes broad consideration of security issues, the necessary revolution can become more visible and thus accelerate

How increasingly powerful PRE modeling tools allow to unlock the full potential of FRP and RDRP in aqueous emulsion

Please click Additional Files below to see the full abstract

The polaroid image as photo-object

This article is part of a larger project on the cultural history of Polaroid photography and draws on research done at the Polaroid Corporate archive at Harvard and at the Polaroid company itself. It identifies two cultural practices engendered by Polaroid photography, which, at the point of its extinction, has briefly flared into visibility again. It argues that these practices are mistaken as novel but are in fact rediscoveries of practices that stretch back as many as five decades. The first section identifies Polaroid image-making as a photographic equivalent of what Tom Gunning calls the ‘cinema of attractions’. That is, the emphasis in its use is on the display of photographic technologies rather than the resultant image. Equally, the common practice, in both fine art and vernacular circles, of making composite pictures with Polaroid prints, draws attention from image content and redirects it to the photo as object

Short-Haul Revitalization Study Final Report

A feasibility study was performed for an advanced commercial short-haul aircraft to evaluate the potential for increased service for short-haul flights that operate out of regional and community airports. An analysis of potential origin-destination markets and trip distances resulted in a seat capacity selection of 48 passengers and a design range of 600 NM. A down-select of advanced technologies resulted in a hybrid-electric propulsion system being chosen as the primary enabling technology. A conceptual design of the advanced aircraft was developed, and a mission and sizing analysis was performed, comparing variants of the advanced aircraft with different levels of electrification. Fairly aggressive levels of electrification and battery specific energy are needed for the hybridelectric architecture to realize any benefit in terms of total energy cost for the 600 NM design mission. The development and operational costs were estimated for the advanced aircraft and compared to the baseline. This analysis demonstrated the negative effect of the cost to develop the hybrid-electric technology on the eventual operating cost. A market analysis was performed to determine possible passenger demand for the advanced shorthaul aircraft. According to the market analysis, there is potential demand for such an aircraft, but not necessarily in many of the smaller regional and community airports that were the intended beneficiaries of this new aircraft concept

Impact of infection on proteome-wide glycosylation revealed by distinct signatures for bacterial and viral pathogens

Mechanisms of infection and pathogenesis have predominantly been studied based on differential gene or protein expression. Less is known about posttranslational modifications, which are essential for protein functional diversity. We applied an innovative glycoproteomics method to study the systemic proteome-wide glycosylation in response to infection. The protein site-specific glycosylation was characterized in plasma derived from well-defined controls and patients. We found 3862 unique features, of which we identified 463 distinct intact glycopeptides, that could be mapped to more than 30 different proteins. Statistical analyses were used to derive a glycopeptide signature that enabled significant differentiation between patients with a bacterial or viral infection. Furthermore, supported by a machine learning algorithm, we demonstrated the ability to identify the causative pathogens based on the distinctive host blood plasma glycopeptide signatures. These results illustrate that glycoproteomics holds enormous potential as an innovative approach to improve the interpretation of relevant biological changes in response to infection

A multi-platform approach to identify a blood-based host protein signature for distinguishing between bacterial and viral infections in febrile children (PERFORM): a multi-cohort machine learning study.

BACKGROUND Differentiating between self-resolving viral infections and bacterial infections in children who are febrile is a common challenge, causing difficulties in identifying which individuals require antibiotics. Studying the host response to infection can provide useful insights and can lead to the identification of biomarkers of infection with diagnostic potential. This study aimed to identify host protein biomarkers for future development into an accurate, rapid point-of-care test that can distinguish between bacterial and viral infections, by recruiting children presenting to health-care settings with fever or a history of fever in the previous 72 h. METHODS In this multi-cohort machine learning study, patient data were taken from EUCLIDS, the Swiss Pediatric Sepsis study, the GENDRES study, and the PERFORM study, which were all based in Europe. We generated three high-dimensional proteomic datasets (SomaScan and two via liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry, referred to as MS-A and MS-B) using targeted and untargeted platforms (SomaScan and liquid chromatography mass spectrometry). Protein biomarkers were then shortlisted using differential abundance analysis, feature selection using forward selection-partial least squares (FS-PLS; 100 iterations), along with a literature search. Identified proteins were tested with Luminex and ELISA and iterative FS-PLS was done again (25 iterations) on the Luminex results alone, and the Luminex and ELISA results together. A sparse protein signature for distinguishing between bacterial and viral infections was identified from the selected proteins. The performance of this signature was finally tested using Luminex assays and by calculating disease risk scores. FINDINGS 376 children provided serum or plasma samples for use in the discovery of protein biomarkers. 79 serum samples were collected for the generation of the SomaScan dataset, 147 plasma samples for the MS-A dataset, and 150 plasma samples for the MS-B dataset. Differential abundance analysis, and the first round of feature selection using FS-PLS identified 35 protein biomarker candidates, of which 13 had commercial ELISA or Luminex tests available. 16 proteins with ELISA or Luminex tests available were identified by literature review. Further evaluation via Luminex and ELISA and the second round of feature selection using FS-PLS revealed a six-protein signature: three of the included proteins are elevated in bacterial infections (SELE, NGAL, and IFN-γ), and three are elevated in viral infections (IL18, NCAM1, and LG3BP). Performance testing of the signature using Luminex assays revealed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values between 89·4% and 93·6%. INTERPRETATION This study has led to the identification of a protein signature that could be ultimately developed into a blood-based point-of-care diagnostic test for rapidly diagnosing bacterial and viral infections in febrile children. Such a test has the potential to greatly improve care of children who are febrile, ensuring that the correct individuals receive antibiotics. FUNDING European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (EUCLIDS), Imperial Biomedical Research Centre of the National Institute for Health Research, the Wellcome Trust and Medical Research Foundation, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Consorcio Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Grupos de Refeencia Competitiva, Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation