Reduction of calcium release site models via optimized state aggregation

Background Markov chain models of calcium release sites in living cells exhibit stochastic dynamics reminiscent of the experimentally observed phenomenon of calcium puffs and sparks. Such models often take the form of stochastic automata networks in which the transition probabilities for each of a large number of intercellular channel models depend on the local calcium concentration and thus the state of nearby channels. The state-space size in such compositionally defined calcium release site models increases exponentially as the number of channels increases, which is referred to as “state-space explosion”. Methods In order to overcome the state-space explosion problem, we utilized the idea of “coarse graining” and implemented an automated procedure that reduces the state space by aggregating and lumping states of the full release site model. For a given state aggregation scheme, the transition rates between reduced states are chosen consistent with the conditional probability distribution among states within each group. A genetic algorithm-based approach is then applied to select the state aggregation schemes that lead to reduced models that approximate the observable behaviors of the full model. Results The genetic algorithm-based approach is implemented in Matlab®; and applied to two different release site models. The approach found reduced models that approximate the full model in the number of open channels, spark statistics, and the jump probability matrix as a function of time. Conclusions A novel automated genetic algorithm-based searching technique is implemented to find reduced calcium release site models that approximate observable behaviors of the full Markov chain models that possess intractable state-spaces. As compared to the full model, the reduced models produce quantitatively similar results using significantly less computational resources

Predictive Crime Mapping: Arbitrary Grids or Street Networks?

OBJECTIVES: Decades of empirical research demonstrate that crime is concentrated at a range of spatial scales, including street segments. Further, the degree of clustering at particular geographic units remains noticeably stable and consistent; a finding that Weisburd (Criminology 53:133–157, 2015) has recently termed the ‘law of crime concentration at places’. Such findings suggest that the future locations of crime should—to some extent at least—be predictable. To date, methods of forecasting where crime is most likely to next occur have focused either on area-level or grid-based predictions. No studies of which we are aware have developed and tested the accuracy of methods for predicting the future risk of crime at the street segment level. This is surprising given that it is at this level of place that many crimes are committed and policing resources are deployed. METHODS: Using data for property crimes for a large UK metropolitan police force area, we introduce and calibrate a network-based version of prospective crime mapping [e.g. Bowers et al. (Br J Criminol 44:641–658, 2004)], and compare its performance against grid-based alternatives. We also examine how measures of predictive accuracy can be translated to the network context, and show how differences in performance between the two cases can be quantified and tested. RESULTS: Findings demonstrate that the calibrated network-based model substantially outperforms a grid-based alternative in terms of predictive accuracy, with, for example, approximately 20 % more crime identified at a coverage level of 5 %. The improvement in accuracy is highly statistically significant at all coverage levels tested (from 1 to 10 %). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that, for property crime at least, network-based methods of crime forecasting are likely to outperform grid-based alternatives, and hence should be used in operational policing. More sophisticated variations of the model tested are possible and should be developed and tested in future research

A Framework for Improving Health in Cities: A Discussion Paper

This paper considers health in cities from the perspective of complex adaptive systems. This approach has a number of important implications for intervention that do not emerge in traditional accounts of cities and health. The paper reviews various accounts of the nature of cities and of health as well as the traditional urban health and Healthy Cities movements. It then provides a framework for intervention and tests it against an actual case study. It concludes that a complex adaptive systems framework opens up fresh possibilities for improving health in urban contexts