Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes

The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 °C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.F.E. acknowledges financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (http://www.conacyt.gob.mx) under grant CONACYT-310026, as well as from PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. (CONACYT-310026 - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia; PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Determination of a lower bound on Earth’s climate sensitivity

Transient and equilibrium sensitivity of Earth's climate has been calculated using global temperature, forcing and heating rate data for the period 1970–2010. We have assumed increased long-wave radiative forcing in the period due to the increase of the long-lived greenhouse gases. By assuming the change in aerosol forcing in the period to be zero, we calculate what we consider to be lower bounds to these sensitivities, as the magnitude of the negative aerosol forcing is unlikely to have diminished in this period. The radiation imbalance necessary to calculate equilibrium sensitivity is estimated from the rate of ocean heat accumulation as 0.37±0.03W m^−2 (all uncertainty estimates are 1−σ). With these data, we obtain best estimates for transient climate sensitivity 0.39±0.07K (W m^−2)^−1 and equilibrium climate sensitivity 0.54±0.14K (W m^−2)^−1, equivalent to 1.5±0.3 and 2.0±0.5K (3.7W m^−2)^−1, respectively. The latter quantity is equal to the lower bound of the ‘likely’ range for this quantity given by the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report. The uncertainty attached to the lower-bound equilibrium sensitivity permits us to state, within the assumptions of this analysis, that the equilibrium sensitivity is greater than 0.31K (W m^−2)^−1, equivalent to 1.16K(3.7W m^−2)^−1, at the 95% confidence level

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Model experiment description paperProjections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017-2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018-2020 period.CRESCENDO project members (V. Eyring, P. Friedlingstein, E. Kriegler, R. Knutti, J. Lowe, K. Riahi, D. van Vuuren) acknowledge funding received from the Horizon 2020 European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation under grant agreement no. 641816. C. Tebaldi, G. A. Meehl and B. M. Sanderson acknowledge the support of the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (RGCM) of the U.S. Department of Energy’s, Office of Science (BER), Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-97ER6240

Probabilistic Projections of 21st Century Climate Change over Northern Eurasia

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere, to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model; and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate-change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for key sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections; climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate); natural variability; and structural uncertainty. Results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider all sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.We would like to recognize the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) for providing the background that made this study possible. This work was partially funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, under grant DE-FG02-94ER61937. The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is funded by a number of federal agencies and a consortium of 40 industrial and foundation sponsors. (For the complete list see http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/current.html). This research used the Evergreen computing cluster at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Evergreen is supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-76RL01830. 20th Century Reanalysis V2 data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/

Anhedonia in schizophrenia and major depression: state or trait?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, anhedonia (a loss of capacity to feel pleasure) had differently been considered as a premorbid personological trait or as a main symptom of their clinical picture. The aims of this study were to examine the pathological features of anhedonia in schizophrenic and depressed patients, and to investigate its clinical relations with general psychopathology (negative, positive, and depressive dimensions).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 145 patients (80 schizophrenics and 65 depressed subjects) were assessed using the Physical Anhedonia Scale and the Social Anhedonia Scale (PAS and SAS, respectively), the Scales for the Assessment of Positive and Negative Symptoms (SAPS and SANS, respectively), the Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenics (CDSS), and the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS). The statistical analysis was performed in two steps. First, the schizophrenic and depressed samples were dichotomised into 'anhedonic' and 'normal hedonic' subgroups (according to the 'double (PAS/SAS) cut-off') and were compared on the general psychopathology scores using the Mann-Whitney Z test. Subsequently, for the total schizophrenic and depressed samples, Spearman correlations were calculated to examine the relation between anhedonia ratings and the other psychopathological parameters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the schizophrenic sample, anhedonia reached high significant levels only in 45% of patients (n = 36). This 'anhedonic' subgroup was distinguished by high scores in the disorganisation and negative dimensions. Positive correlations of anhedonia with disorganised and negative symptoms were also been detected. In the depressed sample, anhedonia reached high significant levels in only 36.9% of subjects (n = 24). This 'anhedonic' subgroup as distinguished by high scores in the depression severity and negative dimensions. Positive correlations of anhedonia with depressive and negative symptoms were also been detected.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In the schizophrenic sample, anhedonia seems to be a specific subjective psychopathological experience of the negative and disorganised forms of schizophrenia. In the depressed sample, anhedonia seems to be a specific subjective psychopathological experience of those major depressive disorder forms with a marked clinical depression severity.</p

The impacts of environmental warming on Odonata: a review

Climate change brings with it unprecedented rates of increase in environmental temperature, which will have major consequences for the earth's flora and fauna. The Odonata represent a taxon that has many strong links to this abiotic factor due to its tropical evolutionary history and adaptations to temperate climates. Temperature is known to affect odonate physiology including life-history traits such as developmental rate, phenology and seasonal regulation as well as immune function and the production of pigment for thermoregulation. A range of behaviours are likely to be affected which will, in turn, influence other parts of the aquatic ecosystem, primarily through trophic interactions. Temperature may influence changes in geographical distributions, through a shifting of species' fundamental niches, changes in the distribution of suitable habitat and variation in the dispersal ability of species. Finally, such a rapid change in the environment results in a strong selective pressure towards adaptation to cope and the inevitable loss of some populations and, potentially, species. Where data are lacking for odonates, studies on other invertebrate groups will be considered. Finally, directions for research are suggested, particularly laboratory studies that investigate underlying causes of climate-driven macroecological patterns

Diverse soil carbon dynamics expressed at the molecular level

The stability and potential vulnerability of soil organic matter (SOM) to global change remains incompletely understood due to the complex processes involved in its formation and turnover. Here we combine compound-specific radiocarbon analysis with fraction-specific and bulk-level radiocarbon measurements in order to further elucidate controls on SOM dynamics in a temperate and sub-alpine forested ecosystem. Radiocarbon contents of individual organic compounds isolated from the same soil interval generally exhibit greater variation than those among corresponding operationally-defined fractions. Notably, markedly older ages of long-chain plant leaf wax lipids (n-alkanoic acids) imply that they reflect a highly stable carbon pool. Furthermore, marked 14C variations among shorter- and longer-chain n-alkanoic acid homologues suggest that they track different SOM pools. Extremes in SOM dynamics thus manifest themselves within a single compound class. This exploratory study highlights the potential of compound-specific radiocarbon analysis for understanding SOM dynamics in ecosystems potentially vulnerable to global change

A practical indicator for surface ocean heat and freshwater buoyancy fluxes and its application to the NCEP reanalysis data

The buoyancy flux at the air/sea interface plays a key role in water mass transformation and mixing as it modifies surface water density and in turn drives overturning and enhances stratification. It is the interplay of these two independent heat and freshwater buoyancy flux components that is of central importance when analysing mechanisms of the ocean/atmosphere interaction. Here, a diagnostic quantity (ΘB) is presented that allows to capture the relative contribution of both components on the buoyancy flux in one single quantity. Using NCEP reanalysis of heat and freshwater fluxes (1948–2009) demonstrates that ΘB is a convenient tool to analyse both the temporal and spatial variability of their corresponding buoyancy fluxes. For the global ocean the areal extent of buoyancy gain and loss regions changed by 10%, with the largest extent of buoyancy gain during the 1970–1990 period. In the subpolar North Atlantic, and likewise in the South Pacific, decadal variability in freshwater flux is pronounced and, for the latter region, takes control over the total buoyancy flux since the 1980s. Some of the areal extent time series show a significant correlation with large-scale climate indices