Violence and Drug Prohibition in Colombia

We assess the role of inequality, poverty and drug prohibition, in explaining homicide rates(HR) in Colombia using panel data at the municipality level between 1990 and 1998. We use maximum likelihood estimation to evaluate several specifications of spatial models. When we pool the data we find a significant relation between the HR and poverty which is reinforced when the inequality variables are included in the regression. We use rates of arrest related to drugs as proxy for drug prohibition enforcement, and find no evidence of any net effect in this exercise. We proceed to estimate the model for every year since 1991 to 1998, and find mixed results along the analyzed period, with statistically significant positive coefficients for some years, evidencing a positive net effect for those years of drug prohibition on violence. This result calls for caution in the implementation of global policies meant to improve specific countries’ welfare, such as drug prohibition policies. On the other hand, our proxy for income inequality is not related to violence, while its relationship with poverty is weakly positive.Drug Prohibition, Violence, Crime, Spatial Econometrics

The Impact of Public and Private Job Training in Colombia

The authors present matching estimators of the impact on earnings for individuals who attended public and private job training programs in Colombia. They estimate propensity scores by controlling for the variety of personal and socioeconomic background variables of those individuals. The effect of training, measured by the mean impact of the treatment on the treated, shows that: (i) for youths, no institution has a significant impact in the short or long run except private institutions for males; the scope of the data, however, limits the reliability of the result; (ii) for adult males, neither SENA nor the other public institutions have a significant impact in the short or long run; (iii) for SENA-trained adult females there are positive but not significant impacts in the short run and greater and close to significant effects in the long run. All other public institutions have a higher impact that is significant in the long-run; (iv) for adults trained at private institutions there are large and significant effects in both the short and long run, but for adult males in the short run the effects are smaller and only barely significant. In addition, neither short nor long courses provided by SENA seem to have a significant impact on earnings. In general, females benefit more from both short and long courses than males. Finally, a cost-benefit analysis shows that under the assumption of direct unitary costs equal to SENA, private institutions are more profitable than public institutions, which are in turn more profitable than SENA.

The Impact of Public and Private Job Training in Colombia

The authors present various matching estimators of the impact on earnings for individuals who attended public and private job training programs in Colombia. The authors estimate propensity scores by controlling for the wide variety of personal and socioeconomic background variables of those individuals. The effect of training, measured by the mean impact of the treatment on the treated, shows that: (i) for youths, no institution has a significant impact in the short or long run except private institutions for males; the scope of the data, however, limits the reliability of the result; (ii) for adult males, neither SENA nor the other public institutions have a significant impact in the short or long run; (iii) for SENAtrained adult females there are positive but not significant impacts in the short run and greater and close to significant effects in the long run. All other public institutions have a higher impact that is significant in the long-run; (iv) for adults trained at private institutions there are large and significant effects in both the short and long run, but for adult males in the short run the effects are smaller and only barely significant. In addition, neither short nor long courses provided by SENA seem to have a significant impact on earnings. In general, females benefit more from both short and long courses than males. Finally, a cost-benefit analysis shows that under the assumption of direct unitary costs equal to SENA, private institutions are more profitable than public institutions, which are in turn more profitable than SENA.Program evaluation, selection bias, job training programs

Stratification and Public Utility Services in Colombia: Subsidies to Households or Distortions on Housing Prices?

Domiciliary public utility services in Colombia have a cross subsidy system which charges subsidized rates to the households who live in houses located in strata associated to low wealth levels, and taxed rates to the better off. We assesses the hypothesis that the flow of subsidies that potentially come from a particular house, are discounted by housing market agents so that most of them are transferred to the prices of the houses that generate the subsidies. By estimating a hedonic prices model applying a regression discontinuity approach, we find that the increment in house value estimated because of subsidies is similar in magnitude to the present value of the flow of subsidies. Likely effects are found on the rent amount. We conclude that subsidies to the poor population through public spending in domiciliary public utility services in Colombia is being achieved, if anything, in a very limited way. Most of the financial effort on this subject ends up distorting housing relative prices according to socioeconomic strata, with an annual cost of up to 0.7% of GDP in supposed gross subsidies to domiciliary public utility services.targeting of subsidies, Incidence, stratification, segregation, hedonic price models, regression discontinuity design. Classification JEL: C0; D31; H4; H22; H24; I3

Changes in Daytime Hours of Work and Employment in Colombia

We estimate the effect on hourly wages and hours of work, of an increase in the number of hours of work, defined by law as daytime hours of work. To identify the parameter of interest, we estimate difference in difference models. Although we do not know the working hour schedule; we exploit the necessary conditions for the intervention to affect them, to define treatment and comparison groups. We find that wages of males older than 25 working in industry in metropolitan areas decreased more than 11% due to the reform, while females older than 25 working in industry in metropolitan areas reduced their hours of work per week in 3.6 hours. There is evidence, although weaker, of increases in hourly wages for male workers in the other sectors of the economy. This suggests that employers increased labor demand in those sectors. Overall, the reform would have had positive effects on all workers but those in industry.Classification JEL: K31; J20; J30.

Migration as a Safety Net and Effects of Remittances on Household Consumption: The Case of Colombia

We assess whether international remittances affect Colombian household’s expenditure composition and demand of education. We exploit the migratory wave that took place on late 90s due to one of the deepest crises in Colombian history, along with institutional barriers to migration, to identify the effect of remittances on expenditure composition. The empirical exercises find a positive effect over education, beneficiary households expending about 10% of total expenditure more in education than non beneficiaries. In addition although no effect was found on enrollment rates, we found an important effect on the probability of attending a private, rather that a public, educational institution. Such effect is on average 24% for individuals 5-30 years old, 50% for those attending secondary education, and 40% for those attending higher education. On the other hand, effects over consumption, investment and health expenditure, are nil. Finally, we find important effects of remittances on living standards of beneficiary households.International Remittances, International Migration, Safety Net, Consumption Composition Classification JEL: F22; I31; P36.

EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF HEALTH CARE REFORM IN COLOMBIA: FROM THEORY TO PRACTICE

This article presents an evaluation of an ambitious health reform implemented in Colombia during the first half of the nineties. The reform attempted to radically change public provision of health services, by means of the transformation of subsidies to supply (direct transfers to hospitals) into a new scheme of subsidies to demand (transfers targeted at the poorest citizens). Although the percentage of the population having medical care insurance has notably increased, mostly among the poorest, problems of implementation have been numerous. It has not been possible to achieve the transformation of subsidies to supply into subsidies to demand. At the same time, competition has not made it possible to increase the efficiency of many public hospitals, which continue to operate with very low occupation rates, while receiving hefty money transfers. Subsidies increased demand for medical consultations, but have curbed demand for hospitalizations. Nonetheless, subsidies might have adversely affected female´s labor market participation and even household consumption. As a whole, evidence suggests that the health reform has been effective in rationalizing households´ demand for health, but not in rationalizing public supply, and neither in increasing the efficiency of service providers.demand subsidies, targeted social services, instrumental variables

Is Discrimination Due to a Coordination Failure?

Can groups with equal productive potential end up in equilibria in which they get different average wages? We consider a simple model of statistical discrimination that shows that this might happen. Discrimination in this model is possible for the existence of multiple equilibria. We study what determines multiplicity, what policies might be used to eliminate discrimination in this situation and, finally, we test the main hypothesis of this model, namely, that identical groups will be treated equally. Our empirical results suggest, however, that discrimination is more due to structural differences in the wage schedules faced by black and white males.

Technical Change and Polarization of the Labor Market: Evidence for Brazil, Colombia and Mexico

We use occupations descriptions for Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, to build computer-use related tasks intensities, and link then to series of cross sections of data of each country in order to empirically assess to what extent the observed empirical regularities, and the reallocation of workers across occupations that require different tasks intensities, are consistent with the SBTC or polarization models. We find an increase of both wages and workers at the extremes of the wage or skills occupations distribution, the less routinaire/computerizabe, particularly pronounced in the period since personal computers began to be introduced in the region. This finding, along with other empirical regularities, provides support for some of the main implications of the polarization model in the cases of Colombia and Mexico.Relative Wages, Income Distribution, Technical Change.

Measuring Economic and Social Impacts of Migration in Colombia: New evidence

This paper analyses a comprehensive dataset on migration using robust econometric methodologies to assess a range of economic and social impacts of migration on individuals and households left behind. Our findings indicate that there is no significant impact on labour force participation in households with migrants, but remittances do appear to have a negative effect on labour force participation. Migration (either absent or returned) increases total per capita expenditure by nearly US$35 per month while households that receive remittances increase per capita expenditures by US$49 per month on average. Expenditures in health and education also increase. However, there is no effect on school attendance, while individuals living in a household with an absent migrant are almost 4 per cent less likely to state that their health is good. Households with migration experience are around 8 per cent less likely to keep their immediate families together, with this effect particularly pronounced in the sub-group of households with return migrants. Our policy recommendations emphasize the importance of family reunification, and issue that deserves more decisive policy actions on the part of the Colombian government.International Migration, Remittances, Program Evaluation.