Characterisation of large changes in wind power for the day-ahead market using a fuzzy logic approach

Wind power has become one of the renewable resources with a major growth in the electricity market. However, due to its inherent variability, forecasting techniques are necessary for the optimum scheduling of the electric grid, specially during ramp events. These large changes in wind power may not be captured by wind power point forecasts even with very high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. In this paper, a fuzzy approach for wind power ramp characterisation is presented. The main benefit of this technique is that it avoids the binary definition of ramp event, allowing to identify changes in power out- put that can potentially turn into ramp events when the total percentage of change to be considered a ramp event is not met. To study the application of this technique, wind power forecasts were obtained and their corresponding error estimated using Genetic Programming (GP) and Quantile Regression Forests. The error distributions were incorporated into the characterisation process, which according to the results, improve significantly the ramp capture. Results are presented using colour maps, which provide a useful way to interpret the characteristics of the ramp events

Initiation of Psychotropic Medication after Partner Bereavement: A Matched Cohort Study

Background Recent changes to diagnostic criteria for depression in DSM-5 remove the bereavement exclusion, allowing earlier diagnosis following bereavement. Evaluation of the potential effect of this change requires an understanding of existing psychotropic medication prescribing by non-specialists after bereavement. Aims To describe initiation of psychotropic medication in the first year after partner bereavement. Methods In a UK primary care database, we identified 21,122 individuals aged 60 and over with partner bereavement and no psychotropic drug use in the previous year. Prescribing (anxiolytic/hypnotic, antidepressant, antipsychotic) after bereavement was compared to age, sex and practice matched controls. Results The risks of receiving a new psychotropic prescription within two and twelve months of bereavement were 9.5% (95% CI 9.1 to 9.9%) and 17.9% (17.3 to 18.4%) respectively; an excess risk of initiation in the first year of 12.4% compared to non-bereaved controls. Anxiolytic/hypnotic and antidepressant initiation rates were highest in the first two months. In this period, the hazard ratio for initiation of anxiolytics/hypnotics was 16.7 (95% CI 14.7 to 18.9) and for antidepressants was 5.6 (4.7 to 6.7) compared to non-bereaved controls. 13.3% of those started on anxiolytics/hypnotics within two months continued to receive this drug class at one year. The marked variation in background family practice prescribing of anxiolytics/hypnotics was the strongest determinant of their initiation in the first two months after bereavement. Conclusion Almost one in five older people received a new psychotropic drug prescription in the year after bereavement. The early increase and trend in antidepressant use after bereavement suggests some clinicians did not adhere to the bereavement exclusion, with implications for its recent removal in DSM-5. Family practice variation in use of anxiolytics/hypnotics suggests uncertainty over their role in bereavement with the potential for inappropriate long term use

Complex hybrid origin of genetic caste determination in harvester ants

Caste differentiation and division of labour are the hallmarks of insect societies and at the root of their ecological success. Kin selection predicts that caste determination should result from environmentally induced differences in gene expression, a prediction largely supported by empirical data. However, two exceptional cases of genetically determined caste differentiation have recently been found in harvester ants. Here we show that genetic caste determination evolved in these populations after complex hybridization events. We identified four distinct genetic lineages, each consisting of unique blends of the genomes of the parental species, presumably Pogonomyrmex barbatus and P. rugosus. Crosses between lineages H1 and H2 and between J1 and J2 give rise to workers, whereas queens develop from within-lineage matings. Although historical gene flow is evident, genetic exchange among lineages and between lineages and the parental species no longer occurs. This unusual system of caste determination seems to be evolutionarily stable

Fall Classification by Machine Learning Using Mobile Phones

Fall prevention is a critical component of health care; falls are a common source of injury in the elderly and are associated with significant levels of mortality and morbidity. Automatically detecting falls can allow rapid response to potential emergencies; in addition, knowing the cause or manner of a fall can be beneficial for prevention studies or a more tailored emergency response. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate techniques to not only reliably detect a fall but also to automatically classify the type. We asked 15 subjects to simulate four different types of falls–left and right lateral, forward trips, and backward slips–while wearing mobile phones and previously validated, dedicated accelerometers. Nine subjects also wore the devices for ten days, to provide data for comparison with the simulated falls. We applied five machine learning classifiers to a large time-series feature set to detect falls. Support vector machines and regularized logistic regression were able to identify a fall with 98% accuracy and classify the type of fall with 99% accuracy. This work demonstrates how current machine learning approaches can simplify data collection for prevention in fall-related research as well as improve rapid response to potential injuries due to falls

Cytokine responses to the anti-schistosome vaccine candidate antigen glutathione-S-transferase vary with host age and are boosted by praziquantel treatment.

BACKGROUND: Improved helminth control is required to alleviate the global burden of schistosomiasis and schistosome-associated pathologies. Current control efforts rely on the anti-helminthic drug praziquantel (PZQ), which enhances immune responses to crude schistosome antigens but does not prevent re-infection. An anti-schistosome vaccine based on Schistosoma haematobium glutathione-S-transferase (GST) is currently in Phase III clinical trials, but little is known about the immune responses directed against this antigen in humans naturally exposed to schistosomes or how these responses change following PZQ treatment. METHODOLOGY: Blood samples from inhabitants of a Schistosoma haematobium-endemic area were incubated for 48 hours with or without GST before (n = 195) and six weeks after PZQ treatment (n = 107). Concentrations of cytokines associated with innate inflammatory (TNFα, IL-6, IL-8), type 1 (Th1; IFNγ, IL-2, IL-12p70), type 2 (IL-4, IL-5, IL-13), type 17 (IL-17A, IL-21, IL-23p19) and regulatory (IL-10) responses were quantified in culture supernatants via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Factor analysis and multidimensional scaling were used to analyse multiple cytokines simultaneously. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A combination of GST-specific type 2 (IL-5 and IL-13) and regulatory (IL-10) cytokines was significantly lower in 10-12 year olds, the age group at which S. haematobium infection intensity and prevalence peak, than in 4-9 or 13+ year olds. Following PZQ treatment there was an increase in the number of participants producing detectable levels of GST-specific cytokines (TNFα, IL-6, IL-8, IFNγ, IL-12p70, IL-13 and IL-23p19) and also a shift in the GST-specific cytokine response towards a more pro-inflammatory phenotype than that observed before treatment. Participant age and pre-treatment infection status significantly influenced post-treatment cytokine profiles. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In areas where schistosomiasis is endemic host age, schistosome infection status and PZQ treatment affect the cellular cytokine response to GST. Thus the efficacy of a GST-based vaccine may also be shaped by the demographic and epidemiological characteristics of targeted populations

Day occupation is associated with psychopathology for adolescents and young adults with Down syndrome

Background: Young adults with Down syndrome experience increased rates of emotional and behavioural problems compared with the general population. Most adolescents with Down syndrome living in Western Australia participate in sheltered employment as their main day occupation. Relationship between day occupation and changes in behaviour has not been examined. Therefore, the aim of this research was to explore any relationship between post school day occupations and changes in the young person’s behaviour. Methods: The Down syndrome Needs Opinion Wishes database was used for case ascertainment of young adults aged 15 to 32 years with Down syndrome. Families of 118 young people in this population-based database completed questionnaires in 2004, 2009 and 2011. The questionnaires addressed both young person characteristics such as age, gender, presence of impairments, behaviour, functioning in activities of daily living, and family characteristics such as income and family functioning. Post-school day occupations in which the young people were participating included open and sheltered employment, training and day recreation programs. Change in behaviour of young adults who remained in the same post-school day occupation from 2009 to 2011 (n = 103) were examined in a linear regression model adjusting for confounding variables including age, gender, prior functioning and behaviour in 2004 and family income.Results: In comparison to those young adults attending open employment from 2009 to 2011, those attending day recreation programs were reported to experience worsening in behaviour both in the unadjusted (effect size -0.14, 95% CI -0.24, -0.05) and adjusted models (effect size -0.15, 95% CI -0.29, -0.01). Conclusions: We found that the behaviour of those participating in open employment improved compared to those attending other day occupations. Further examination of the direction of this association is required

Behavioural Thermoregulatory Tactics in Lacustrine Brook Charr, Salvelinus fontinalis

The need to vary body temperature to optimize physiological processes can lead to thermoregulatory behaviours, particularly in ectotherms. Despite some evidence of within-population phenotypic variation in thermal behaviour, the occurrence of alternative tactics of this behaviour is rarely explicitly considered when studying natural populations. The main objective of this study was to determine whether different thermal tactics exist among individuals of the same population. We studied the behavioural thermoregulation of 33 adult brook charr in a stratified lake using thermo-sensitive radio transmitters that measured hourly individual temperature over one month. The observed behavioural thermoregulatory patterns were consistent between years and suggest the existence of four tactics: two “warm” tactics with both crepuscular and finer periodicities, with or without a diel periodicity, and two “cool” tactics, with or without a diel periodicity. Telemetry data support the above findings by showing that the different tactics are associated with different patterns of diel horizontal movements. Taken together, our results show a clear spatio-temporal segregation of individuals displaying different tactics, suggesting a reduction of niche overlap. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing the presence of behavioural thermoregulatory tactics in a vertebrate

Habitat and forage associations of a naturally colonising insect pollinator, the Tree Bumblebee Bombus hypnorum

Bumblebees (Bombus species) are major pollinators of commercial crops and wildflowers but factors affecting their abundance, including causes of recent population declines, remain unclear. Investigating the ecology of species with expanding ranges provides a potentially powerful means of elucidating these factors. Such species may also bring novel pollination services to their new ranges. We therefore investigated landscape-scale habitat use and foraging preferences of the Tree Bumblebee, B. hypnorum, a recent natural colonist that has rapidly expanded its range in the UK over the past decade. Counts of B. hypnorum and six other Bombus species were made in March-June 2012 within a mixed landscape in south-eastern Norfolk, UK. The extent of different landscape elements around each transect was quantified at three scales (250 m, 500 m and 1500 m). We then identified the landscape elements that best predicted the density of B. hypnorum and other Bombus species. At the best fitting scale (250 m), B. hypnorum density was significantly positively associated with extent of both urban and woodland cover and significantly negatively associated with extent of oilseed rape cover. This combination of landscape predictors was unique to B. hypnorum. Urban and woodland cover were associated with B. hypnorum density at three and two, respectively, of the three scales studied. Relative to other Bombus species, B. hypnorum exhibited a significantly higher foraging preference for two flowering trees, Crataegus monogyna and Prunus spinosa, and significantly lower preferences for Brassica napus, Glechoma hederacea and Lamium album. Our study provides novel, quantitative support for an association of B. hypnorum with urban and woodland landscape elements. Range expansion in B. hypnorum appears to depend, on exploitation of widespread habitats underutilised by native Bombus species, suggesting B. hypnorum will readily co-exist with these species. These findings suggest that management could target bumblebee species with distinctive habitat requirements to help maintain pollination service