Evaluating the Influence of Epidemiological Parameters and Host Ecology on the Spread of Phocine Distemper Virus through Populations of Harbour Seals

Catriona Harris was supported by a grant from the UK Natural Environment Research Council. The funders had no role in study design, data collections and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Background: Outbreaks of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in Europe during 1988 and 2002 were responsible for the death of around 23,000 and 30,000 harbour seals, respectively. These epidemics, particularly the one in 2002, provided an unusual opportunity to estimate epidemic parameters for a wildlife disease. There were marked regional differences in the values of some parameters both within and between epidemics. Methodology and Principal Findings: We used an individual-based model of seal movement that allowed us to incorporate realistic representations of space, time and animal behaviour into a traditional epidemiological modelling framework. We explored the potential influence of a range of ecological (foraging trip duration, time of epidemic onset, population size) and epidemiological (length of infectious period, contact rate between infectious and susceptible individuals, case mortality) parameters on four readily-measurable epidemic characteristics (number of dead individuals, duration of epidemic, peak mortality date and prevalence) and on the probability that an epidemic would occur in a particular region. We analysed the outputs as if they were the results of a series of virtual experiments, using Generalised Linear Modelling. All six variables had a significant effect on the probability that an epidemic would be recognised as an unusual mortality event by human observers. Conclusions: Regional and temporal variation in contact rate was the most likely cause of the observed differences between the two epidemics. This variation could be a consequence of differences in the way individuals divide their time between land and sea at different times of the year.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Bivalve distribution in hydrographic regions in South America: historical overview and conservation

Based on literature review and malacological collections, 168 native freshwater bivalve and five invasive species have been recorded for 52 hydrographic regions in South America. The higher species richness has been detected in the South Atlantic, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Amazon Brazilian hydrographic regions. Presence or absence data were analysed by Principal Coordinate for PhylogenyWeighted. The lineage Veneroida was more representative in hydrographic regions that are poorer in species and located West of South America. The Mycetopodidae and Hyriidae lineages were predominant in regions that are richest in species toward the East of the continent. The distribution of invasive speciesLimnoperna fortuneiis not related to species richness in different hydrographic regions there. The species richness and its distribution patterns are closely associated with the geological history of the continent. The hydrographic regions present distinct phylogenetic and species composition regardless of the level of richness. Therefore, not only should the richness be considered to be a criterion for prioritizing areas for conservation, but also the phylogenetic diversity of communities engaged in services and functional aspects relevant to ecosystem maintenance. A plan to the management of this fauna according to particular ecological characteristics and human uses of hydrographic regions is neededFil: Pereira, Daniel . Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul; BrasilFil: Dreher Mansur, Maria Cristina . Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul; BrasilFil: Duarte, Leandro D. S. . Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul; BrasilFil: Schramm de Oliveira, Arthur . Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul; BrasilFil: Mansur Pimpao, Daniel . Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul; BrasilFil: Tasso Callil, Claudia . Universidade Federal Do Mato Grosso Do Sul; BrasilFil: Ituarte, Cristian Federico. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Parada, Esperanza . Plataforma de Investigación en Ecohidrología y Ecohidráulica (ECOHYD); ChileFil: Peredo, Santiago . Plataforma de Investigación en Ecohidrología y Ecohidráulica (ECOHYD); ChileFil: Darrigran, Gustavo Alberto. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Cs.naturales y Museo. Div.zoologia Invertebrados; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Scarabino, Fabrizio . Museo Nacional de Historia Natural; UruguayFil: Clavijo, Cristhian. Museo Nacional de Historia Natural; UruguayFil: Lara, Gladys . Universidad Católica de Temuco; ChileFil: Miyahira, Igor Christo . Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro; BrasilFil: Raya Rodriguez, Maria Teresa . Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul; BrasilFil: Lasso, Carlos . Instituto de Investigacion de Recursos Biologicos Alexander von Humboldt; Colombi