Characterising half a degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

The Paris Agreement long term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This paper reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub-selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2°C with 1.5°C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming increments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechanisms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time-lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways

Little evidence for a selective advantage of armour-reduced threespined stickleback individuals in an invertebrate predation experiment

The repeated colonization of freshwater habitats by the ancestrally marine threespined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus has been associated with many instances of parallel reduction in armour traits, most notably number of lateral plates. The change in predation regime from marine systems, dominated by gape-limited predators such as piscivorous fishes, to freshwater habitats where grappling invertebrate predators such as insect larvae can dominate the predation regime, has been hypothesized as a driving force. Here we experimentally test the hypothesis that stickleback with reduced armour possess a selective advantage in the face of predation by invertebrates, using a natural population of stickleback that is highly polymorphic for armour traits and a common invertebrate predator from the same location. Our results provide no compelling evidence for selection in this particular predator–prey interaction. We suggest that the postulated selective advantage of low armour in the face of invertebrate predation may not be universal

Testing the climate intervention potential of ocean afforestation using the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt

Ensuring that global warming remains 2 emissions reduction. Additionally, 100–900 gigatons CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere by 2100 using a portfolio of CO2 removal (CDR) methods. Ocean afforestation, CDR through basin-scale seaweed farming in the open ocean, is seen as a key component of the marine portfolio. Here, we analyse the CDR potential of recent re-occurring trans-basin belts of the floating seaweed Sargassum in the (sub)tropical North Atlantic as a natural analogue for ocean afforestation. We show that two biogeochemical feedbacks, nutrient reallocation and calcification by encrusting marine life, reduce the CDR efficacy of Sargassum by 20–100%. Atmospheric CO2 influx into the surface seawater, after CO2-fixation by Sargassum, takes 2.5–18 times longer than the CO2-deficient seawater remains in contact with the atmosphere, potentially hindering CDR verification. Furthermore, we estimate that increased ocean albedo, due to floating Sargassum, could influence climate radiative forcing more than Sargassum-CDR. Our analysis shows that multifaceted Earth-system feedbacks determine the efficacy of ocean afforestation

Stromal Genes Add Prognostic Information to Proliferation and Histoclinical Markers: A Basis for the Next Generation of Breast Cancer Gene Signatures

BACKGROUND: First-generation gene signatures that identify breast cancer patients at risk of recurrence are confined to estrogen-positive cases and are driven by genes involved in the cell cycle and proliferation. Previously we induced sets of stromal genes that are prognostic for both estrogen-positive and estrogen-negative samples. Creating risk-management tools that incorporate these stromal signatures, along with existing proliferation-based signatures and established clinicopathological measures such as lymph node status and tumor size, should better identify women at greatest risk for metastasis and death. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To investigate the strength and independence of the stromal and proliferation factors in estrogen-positive and estrogen-negative patients we constructed multivariate Cox proportional hazards models along with tree-based partitions of cancer cases for four breast cancer cohorts. Two sets of stromal genes, one consisting of DCN and FBLN1, and the other containing LAMA2, add substantial prognostic value to the proliferation signal and to clinical measures. For estrogen receptor-positive patients, the stromal-decorin set adds prognostic value independent of proliferation for three of the four datasets. For estrogen receptor-negative patients, the stromal-laminin set significantly adds prognostic value in two datasets, and marginally in a third. The stromal sets are most prognostic for the unselected population studies and may depend on the age distribution of the cohorts. CONCLUSION: The addition of stromal genes would measurably improve the performance of proliferation-based first-generation gene signatures, especially for older women. Incorporating indicators of the state of stromal cell types would mark a conceptual shift from epithelial-centric risk assessment to assessment based on the multiple cell types in the cancer-altered tissue

α-Synuclein Genetic Variants Predict Faster Motor Symptom Progression in Idiopathic Parkinson Disease

Currently, there are no reported genetic predictors of motor symptom progression in Parkinson’s disease (PD). In familial PD, disease severity is associated with higher α-synuclein (SNCA) expression levels, and in postmortem studies expression varies with SNCA genetic variants. Furthermore, SNCA is a well-known risk factor for PD occurrence. We recruited Parkinson’s patients from the communities of three central California counties to investigate the influence of SNCA genetic variants on motor symptom progression in idiopathic PD. We repeatedly assessed this cohort of patients over an average of 5.1 years for motor symptom changes employing the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Of 363 population-based incident PD cases diagnosed less than 3 years from baseline assessment, 242 cases were successfully re-contacted and 233 were re-examined at least once. Of subjects lost to follow-up, 69% were due to death. Adjusting for covariates, risk of faster decline of motor function as measured by annual increase in motor UPDRS exam score was increased 4-fold in carriers of the REP1 263bp promoter variant (OR 4.03, 95%CI:1.57–10.4). Our data also suggest a contribution to increased risk by the G-allele for rs356165 (OR 1.66; 95%CI:0.96–2.88), and we observed a strong trend across categories when both genetic variants were considered (p for trend  = 0.002). Our population-based study has demonstrated that SNCA variants are strong predictors of faster motor decline in idiopathic PD. SNCA may be a promising target for therapies and may help identify patients who will benefit most from early interventions. This is the first study to link SNCA to motor symptom decline in a longitudinal progression study

A systems analysis of the chemosensitivity of breast cancer cells to the polyamine analogue PG-11047

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Polyamines regulate important cellular functions and polyamine dysregulation frequently occurs in cancer. The objective of this study was to use a systems approach to study the relative effects of PG-11047, a polyamine analogue, across breast cancer cells derived from different patients and to identify genetic markers associated with differential cytotoxicity.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A panel of 48 breast cell lines that mirror many transcriptional and genomic features present in primary human breast tumours were used to study the antiproliferative activity of PG-11047. Sensitive cell lines were further examined for cell cycle distribution and apoptotic response. Cell line responses, quantified by the GI₅₀(dose required for 50% relative growth inhibition) were correlated with the omic profiles of the cell lines to identify markers that predict response and cellular functions associated with drug sensitivity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The concentrations of PG-11047 needed to inhibit growth of members of the panel of breast cell lines varied over a wide range, with basal-like cell lines being inhibited at lower concentrations than the luminal cell lines. Sensitive cell lines showed a significant decrease in S phase fraction at doses that produced little apoptosis. Correlation of the GI₅₀values with the omic profiles of the cell lines identified genomic, transcriptional and proteomic variables associated with response.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A 13-gene transcriptional marker set was developed as a predictor of response to PG-11047 that warrants clinical evaluation. Analyses of the pathways, networks and genes associated with response to PG-11047 suggest that response may be influenced by interferon signalling and differential inhibition of aspects of motility and epithelial to mesenchymal transition.</p> <p>See the related commentary by Benes and Settleman: <url>http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/7/78</url></p

Anesthesia advanced circulatory life support

The constellation of advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) events, such as gas embolism, local anesthetic overdose, and spinal bradycardia, in the perioperative setting differs from events in the pre-hospital arena. As a result, modification of traditional ACLS protocols allows for more specific etiology-based resuscitation. Perioperative arrests are both uncommon and heterogeneous and have not been described or studied to the same extent as cardiac arrest in the community. These crises are usually witnessed, frequently anticipated, and involve a rescuer physician with knowledge of the patient's comorbidities and coexisting anesthetic or surgically related pathophysiology. When the health care provider identifies the probable cause of arrest, the practitioner has the ability to initiate medical management rapidly. Recommendations for management must be predicated on expert opinion and physiological understanding rather than on the standards currently being used in the generation of ACLS protocols in the community. Adapting ACLS algorithms and considering the differential diagnoses of these perioperative events may prevent cardiac arrest

Disequilibrium, adaptation and the Norse settlement of Greenland

This research was supported by the University of Edinburgh ExEDE Doctoral Training Studentship and NSF grant numbers 1202692 and 1140106.There is increasing evidence to suggest that arctic cultures and ecosystems have followed non-linear responses to climate change. Norse Scandinavian farmers introduced agriculture to sub-arctic Greenland in the late tenth century, creating synanthropic landscapes and utilising seasonally abundant marine and terrestrial resources. Using a niche-construction framework and data from recent survey work, studies of diet, and regional-scale climate proxies we examine the potential mismatch between this imported agricultural niche and the constraints of the environment from the tenth to the fifteenth centuries. We argue that landscape modification conformed the Norse to a Scandinavian style of agriculture throughout settlement, structuring and limiting the efficacy of seasonal hunting strategies. Recent climate data provide evidence of sustained cooling from the mid thirteenth century and climate variation from the early fifteenth century. Archaeological evidence suggests that the Norse made incremental adjustments to the changing sub-arctic environment, but were limited by cultural adaptations made in past environments.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe