Trading behavior and excess volatility in toy markets

We study the relation between the trading behavior of agents and volatility in toy markets of adaptive inductively rational agents. We show that excess volatility, in such simplified markets, arises as a consequence of {\em i)} the neglect of market impact implicit in price taking behavior and of {\em ii)} excessive reactivity of agents. These issues are dealt with in detail in the simple case without public information. We also derive, for the general case, the critical learning rate above which trading behavior leads to turbulent dynamics of the market.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, minor change

Reply to Comment on ``Thermal Model for Adaptive Competition in a Market''

We reply to the Comment of Challet et al. [cond-mat/0004308] on our paper [Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 4429 (1999)]. We show that the claim of the Comment that the effects of the temperature in the Thermal Minority Game ``can be eliminated by time rescaling'' and consequently the behaviour is ``independent of T'' has no general validity.Comment: 1 page, 1 figur

Criticality and finite size effects in a simple realistic model of stock market

We discuss a simple model based on the Minority Game which reproduces the main stylized facts of anomalous fluctuations in finance. We present the analytic solution of the model in the thermodynamic limit and show that stylized facts arise only close to a line of critical points with non-trivial properties. By a simple argument, we show that, in Minority Games, the emergence of critical fluctuations close to the phase transition is governed by the interplay between the signal to noise ratio and the system size. These results provide a clear and consistent picture of financial markets as critical systems.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Theory of Self-organized Criticality for Problems with Extremal Dynamics

We introduce a general theoretical scheme for a class of phenomena characterized by an extremal dynamics and quenched disorder. The approach is based on a transformation of the quenched dynamics into a stochastic one with cognitive memory and on other concepts which permit a mathematical characterization of the self-organized nature of the avalanche type dynamics. In addition it is possible to compute the relevant critical exponents directly from the microscopic model. A specific application to Invasion Percolation is presented but the approach can be easily extended to various other problems.Comment: 11 pages Latex (revtex), 3 postscript figures included. Submitted to Europhys. Let

On the High-dimensional Bak-Sneppen model

We report on extensive numerical simulations on the Bak-Sneppen model in high dimensions. We uncover a very rich behavior as a function of dimensionality. For d>2 the avalanche cluster becomes fractal and for d \ge 4 the process becomes transient. Finally the exponents reach their mean field values for d=d_c=8, which is then the upper critical dimension of the Bak Sneppen model.Comment: 4 pages, 3 eps figure

From Minority Games to real markets

We address the question of market efficiency using the Minority Game (MG) model. First we show that removing unrealistic features of the MG leads to models which reproduce a scaling behavior close to what is observed in real markets. In particular we find that i) fat tails and clustered volatility arise at the phase transition point and that ii) the crossover to random walk behavior of prices is a finite size effect. This, on one hand, suggests that markets operate close to criticality, where the market is marginally efficient. On the other it allows one to measure the distance from criticality of real market, using cross-over times. The artificial market described by the MG is then studied as an ecosystem with different_species_ of traders. This clarifies the nature of the interaction and the particular role played by the various populations.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, to appear in Quantitative Financ

Topology-Induced Inverse Phase Transitions

Inverse phase transitions are striking phenomena in which an apparently more ordered state disorders under cooling. This behavior can naturally emerge in tricritical systems on heterogeneous networks and it is strongly enhanced by the presence of disassortative degree correlations. We show it both analytically and numerically, providing also a microscopic interpretation of inverse transitions in terms of freezing of sparse subgraphs and coupling renormalization.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Strategy correlations and timing of adaptation in Minority Games

We study the role of strategy correlations and timing of adaptation for the dynamics of Minority Games, both simulationally and analytically. Using the exact generating functional approach a la De Dominicis we compute the phase diagram and the behaviour of batch and on-line games with correlated strategies, complementing exisiting replica studies of their statics. It is shown that the timing of adaptation can be relevant; while conventional games with uncorrelated strategies are nearly insensitive to the choice of on-line versus batch learning, we find qualitative differences when anti-correlations are present in the strategy assignments. The available standard approximations for the volatility in terms of persistent order parameters in the stationary ergodic states become unreliable in batch games under such circumstances. We then comment on the role of oscillations and the relation to the breakdown of ergodicity. Finally, it is discussed how the generating functional formalism can be used to study mixed populations of so-called `producers' and `speculators' in the context of the batch minority games.Comment: 15 pages, 13 figures, EPJ styl

Emergence of Cooperation and Organization in an Evolutionary Game

A binary game is introduced and analysed. N players have to choose one of the two sides independently and those on the minority side win. Players uses a finite set of ad hoc strategies to make their decision, based on the past record. The analysing power is limited and can adapt when necessary. Interesting cooperation and competition pattern of the society seem to arise and to be responsive to the payoff function.Comment: 8 pages, 13 figure

Generalized strategies in the Minority Game

We show analytically how the fluctuations (i.e. standard deviation) in the Minority Game (MG) can be made to decrease below the random coin-toss limit if the agents use more general behavioral strategies. This suppression of the standard deviation results from a cancellation between the actions of a crowd, in which agents act collectively and make the same decision, and an anticrowd in which agents act collectively by making the opposite decision to the crowd.Comment: Revised manuscript: a few minor typos corrected. Results unaffecte