Assessment of Population Supporting Capacities - Overall Computer Programs

"Is there sufficient land to sustain the likely world population in the year 2000?" Previous estimates of the populations that can be supported by the arable lands in the world vary from 7.5 to 40 thousand million. However, these estimates have not taken account of some crucial aspects, namely: (a) Different quality of lands, their productive capacities and hence their varied potentials for supporting different levels of population on a degradation-free and sustained basis. (b) Different crops (with widely differing climatic and soil requirements). (c) Different levels of inputs and technology. (d) Different socio-economic factors. Recognizing these aspects, FAO and UNFPA have initiated a project to compute the human supporting capacities of agricultural lands and to compare these with data on existing and projected populations. The project entitled "Land Resources for Populations of the Future" commenced on 1st September, 1976. The Food and Agriculture Program at IIASA has participated in this project since September, 1978. IIASA's contribution in conjunction with the Land and Water Division, FAO, is concerned with the development and simulation of the overall methodology for the analysis of the FAO climate/soil data base to determine optimum crop mix and estimation of population supporting capacity. The information generated in this approach is important in that it provides data which can form the basis of the planning of the food and agricultural sector. It is recognized that the analysis is carried out on the basis of the 1:5 million FAO-UNESCO soil map. Most developing countries have not had the resources to carry out detailed soil and climate surveys. Apart from being expensive in time and money, soil surveys are useful only if carried out with a view to assessing the agricultural potential. The methodology as developed in this project is particularly relevant since it considers the most important food crops as well as the degradation hazard in relation to the environment and management practice. At a country level, the data best generated here will certainly need to be supplemented by specific and in-depth surveys. The present and future agricultural production in various countries depends on a wide variety of factors such as ecology, technology, environment, socio-economics, international trade, etc. All these aspects cannot be investigated at the global level but for particular country studies, the data base as generated in the AEZ project provides a starting point for the integration of the wide range of factors that are crucial to the development of the food and agricultural sector in various countries

Nutrition Status - Rural and Urban Kenya

The paper presents a detailed nutritional analysis in the context of the food intake levels of various income groups in rural and urban Kenya. Nutritional surveys covering the majority of the population are not feasible and perhaps not necessary. The main contributions of this study are to provide an overall nutritional picture of Kenya and in particular identify the target groups within the overall population for whom in depth nutritional surveillance may be necessary

Models of Expenditure Systems for Kenya

Understanding the nature and dimensions of the world food problem and the policies available to alleviate it has been the focal point of the IIASA Food and Agriculture Program since it began in 1977. National food systems are highly interdependent, and yet the major policy options exist at the national level. Therefore, to explore these options, it is necessary both to develop policy models for national economies and to link them together by trade and capital transfers. For greater realism the models in this scheme are being kept descriptive, rather than normative. In the end it is proposed to link models to twenty countries, which together account for nearly 80 per cent of such important agricultural attributes as area, production, population, exports, and imports. A model for Kenya is being developed at IIASA. This model will provide a prototype for African developing countries with growing populations and emerging development problems. The present report describes the analysis and modeling of expenditure systems for Kenya. For the evaluation of alternative agricultural policies, one needs a demand system that reflects the expenditure and consumption patterns in the country. In the context of Kenya the rural-urban dimension as well as the respective income distributions have to be explicitly considered. The study is the second in a set of studies which analyze the food consumption system in Kenya

Assessment of Food Production Potential - Resources, Technology and Environment - A Case Study of Kenya

Understanding the nature and dimensions of the world food problem and the policies available to alleviate it has been the focal point of the IIASA Food and Agriculture Program since it began in 1977. In the program we are not only concerned with policies over a 5 to 15 year time horizon, but also with a long term perspective to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the food problems of the world. As we anticipate over the coming decades a technological transformation of agriculture which will be constrained by resource limitations and which could have serious environmental consequences, a number of important questions arise. (a) What is the stable, sustainable production potential of the world? of regions? of nations? (b) Can mankind be fed adequately by this stable, sustainable production potential? (c) What alternative transition paths are available to reach desirable levels of this production potential? (d) What are sustainable, efficient combinations of techniques of food production, (e) What are the resource requirements of such techniques? (f) What are the policy implications at national, regional global levels of sustainability? Stability and sustainability are both desirable properties from the considerations of inter-generational equity as well as of political stability and peace. We hold environmental considerations to be of critical importance in answering the questions posed. This report presents the results of a case study of Kenya carried out as a part of the FAO/UNFPA Project INT/513, Land Resources for Populations of the Future, being carried out in collaboration with the Food and Agriculture Program, IIASA. The results are preliminary and should be regarded as the first approximation. At the present time a detailed case study of Kenya (Phase 2, FAO/Kenya/IIASA Study) is being carried out. As understanding of the ecological and technological limits of food production is a critical part of agricultural development planning, this report highlights the results for Kenya and the methodology of evaluating agricultural production potential, population supporting capacity and soil degradation hazards. Policy relevance and implications for Kenya are briefly discussed. This preliminary report in collaboration with the Land and Water Division of the FAO is the first of a series on the potentials and limits of food production in developing countries

Food Consumption Pattern - Rural and Urban Kenya

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the food consumption pattern of various income groups in rural and urban Kenya. Specific food consumption surveys covering a major proportion of the population in Kenya have not been carried out. However, a wealth of information on food consumption has been collected in the 1974/75 Integrated Rural Survey and the 1977 Urban Food Purchasing Survey. This survey data together with other information in Kenya has been used to obtain the food consumption baskets for various income groups in rural and urban Kenya. The study is particularly useful in identifying the groups of the rural and urban population whose food intake levels are inadequate. The paper contains a large amount of data that is useful for the identification of target groups in the context of production, distribution and pricing and consumption policies to be investigated within the context of a Food and Agricultural planning model of Kenya

Rural-Urban Population Projections for Kenya and Implications for Development: Some Preliminary Results

The objective of this paper is to present some preliminary results on the projections of Kenya's rural and urban population under present trends (base run) and varying assumptions (scenarios 1 to 6) of fertility, mortality and migration. The methodology of multiregional demography is applied to this two region system. The advantage of this approach is that rural and urban populations can be projected simultaneously, as part of an interconnected two-region system

Farm Supply Response in Kenya: Acreage Allocation Model

Employing ARIMA estimation of expected prices and yields, Nerlovian response functions are estimated for large and small farms in Kenya. Results show that (expected) yield levels, rather than expected prices affect the supply response of small farms, whereas large farms react more strongly to prices