Probability based load criteria for the design of nuclear structures: a critical review of the state-of-the-art

Structures for nuclear power plant facilities must be designed to withstand safely and effectively all kinds of loads and load combinations that may be expected to occur during their lifetime. The traditional methods of structural design attempt to account for the inevitable variability in the loads, material strengths, in-service environments, and fabrication process, etc., through the use of safety factor, allowable stresses or load and resistance factors. These approaches may result in an unknown and nonuniform reliability because of the subjective manner in which the safety factors have been determined. The stochastic nature loads and the uncertainties in material properties dictate a probabilistic approach for a rational assessment of structural safety and performance. This report presents: an in-depth review of the state-of-the-art pertaining to probability-based analysis and design of civil engineering structures; basis for extending existing probability-based methods to seismic category I nuclear structures; and the availability of the pertinent data required to perform probabilistic analysis for seismic category I nuclear structures