The Effect of Climatic Variations on Agricultural Risk

The thesis of this paper is that impacts from climatic change can be evaluated effectively as changes in the frequency of short-term, anomalous climatic events. These can then be expressed as changes in the level of risk of impact from climatic extremes. To evaluate this approach, the risk of crop failure resulting from low levels of accumulated temperature is assessed for oats farming in southern Scotland. Annual accumulated temperatures are calculated for the 323-year long temperature record compiled by Manley for Central England. These are bridged across to southern Scotland and, by calculating mean levels of risk for different elevations, an average "risk surface" is constructed. 1-in-10 and 1-in-50 frequencies of crop failure are assumed to delineate a high-risk zone, which is mapped for the 323-year period by constructing isopleths of these risk levels. By re-drawing the risk isopleths for warm and cool 50-year periods, the geographical shift of the high-risk zone is delineated. The conclusion is that relatively recent and apparently minor climatic variations in the United Kingdom have in fact induced substantial spatial changes in levels of agricultural risk. An advantage of expressing climatic change as a change in agricultural risk, is that support programs for agriculture can be re-tuned to accommodate acceptable frequencies of impact by adjusting support levels to match new risk levels

Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change in Marginal Areas: The Search for an Appropriate Methodology

With the support of the UN Environmental Programme a major 2-year project is currently being initiated to investigate the impacts of short-term climatic variations and the likely long-term effects of CO2-induced climatic changes on agricultural output at the sensitive margins of food grains and livestock production. This paper sets the stage for the above-mentioned project. It reviews the notion of climate-related marginality, and proposes to measure the impact of climatic fluctuations on marginal areas by a temporal change in the level of risk of harvest failure and spatial shifts of crop pay-off boundaries. The practical usefulness of these measures is illustrated by several case examples from the US, Canada, and Northern Europe. Finally, the paper outlines the crop/climate simulation model, successfully applied for analysis of the effects of possible climatic changes on cereal yields in Northern England. Over the next two years it will be the aim of the IIASA project to further develop this methodology and to evaluate the impact on food production of possible changes in climate

Assessing the Impact of Climatic Change in Cold Regions

In September 1983 IIASA, together with the Austrian Government, the World Resources Institute and UNESCO, supported an International Study Conference on the Sensitivity of Ecosystems and Society to Climatic Change, which was cosponsored by the World Meteorological Organization, UNEP, and the International Council of Scientific Unions. The purpose of this meeting, which was attended by scientists from 17 countries, was to evaluate the impact of climatic fluctuations on the sensitive margins of agriculture and of natural terrestrial ecosystems. The emphasis was on climatic change that might result from increases in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but consideration was also given to past climatic fluctuations, both short- and long-term. This report is a summary of deliberations by participants in the workshop, of the observations that emerged, and of the recommendations made

Mechanical Properties of Bulk Metallic Glasses and Composites

We have studied the mechanical properties of monolithic bulk metallic glasses and composite in the La based alloys. La₈₆₋yAl₁₄(Cu, Ni)y (y=24 to 32) alloy systems was used to cast the in-situ structure and subsequently tested under compression. We found that the ductility of the monolithic is actually poorer than that of the fully crystalline composite.Singapore-MIT Alliance (SMA

Testing models of Cenozoic exhumation in the Western Greater Caucasus

The Greater Caucasus form the northernmost deformation front of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone. Earlier thermochronometric studies on the crystalline core of the western Greater Caucasus highlighted an abrupt along-strike increase in cooling ages to the west of Mt. Elbrus. Twenty-eight thermochronometric analyses conducted as part of this study confirm this pattern. Overall Cenozoic exhumation was restricted to less than 5-7 km, with slow to moderate punctuated Oligo-Miocene cooling. Cooling rates increased during the Late Miocene to Pliocene. These are most rapid east of Mt. Elbrus, where they probably increased later than farther west (at c. 5 Ma rather than 10-8 Ma). Differential cooling rates do not appear to be driven by lateral variations in tectonic shortening. The region undergoing rapid young cooling does coincide, however, with an area of mantle-sourced Late Miocene and younger magmatism. Thermal relaxation or overprinting is ruled out because geomorphic and modern sediment flux data mirror the thermochronometric trends. The buoyancy effects of demonstrable mantle upwelling are capable of causing the magnitude of exhumation-related cooling recorded in this study, but typically act over wavelengths of several 100 km. We suggest that lithospheric heterogeneities are responsible for modulating the shorter wavelength differences in exhumation rate documented here. These heterogeneities may include the continuation of the same structures responsible for the eastern margin of the Stavropol High to the north of the Caucasus, although further work is required. Similar abrupt variations in mantle-supported uplift and exhumation modulated by crustal structure may occur in other mountain belts worldwide

Climate Impact Analysis in Cold Regions

Among the many factors influencing agricultural and forest productivity worldwide, the effects of weather and climate are of considerable importance. Anomalous fluctuations of climate, particularly thermal conditions, can have a marked effect in high latitude regions where activities are already constrained by low temperatures and a short growing season. Moreover, a consideration of possible future climatic changes (e.g. those that may result from increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide) adds a further dimension to the problem of assessing the regional sensitivity of crop production to climate. In many regions, the impacts of a climatic event extend well beyond the direct, physical response of crops. For instance, the resulting changes in crop production may affect farm incomes, regional food-based industries, employment and prices, with the ripple-effects filtering through to other sectors of an economy and society. This paper outlines a methodology for assessing the sensitivity of crop productivity to climate and shows how this may be elaborated to include a consideration of the economic and social implications of crop productivity changes. The approach uses a hierarchy of models, each one representing a stage in the cascade of responses induced by an anomalous climatic event. In particular, three sets of models are identified - of climatic changes, of climate impacts on potential and actual yield, and of the down-stream economic and social effects of these. By considering a range of credible future climatic scenarios, it is possible to produce estimates of impact and to examine a range of adjustments that might be of interest to the agricultural planner or decision-maker. The methodology is being tested in ten countries as part of a two year IIASA/UNEP research project

Soft Skill Development in Ophthalmology and its Importance to Aspiring Canadian Medical Students

Soft skills are social and emotional intelligences that facilitate harmonious interpersonal interactions. Soft skills enable physicians to understand and build rapport with patients. Soft skills are increasingly considered crucial physician qualities within surgical specialties, including ophthalmology. Although avenues exist for general soft skill development, medical students may find challenges directing their development to ophthalmic settings due to medical curricula’s limited ophthalmology exposure. This perspective commentary discusses resources to aid ophthalmic soft skill development. Lectures provide foundational knowledge. Electives and volunteering provide opportunities to practice soft skills. Electives and mentorship direct soft skills towards desired disciplines. Studying and participating in research that utilizes patient-centred outcomes improves current and future care

Endothelial Cell-Derived Extracellular Vesicles Impair the Angiogenic Response of Coronary Artery Endothelial Cells

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most prominent cause of death of adults in the United States with coronary artery disease being the most common type of CVD. Following a myocardial event, the coronary endothelium plays an important role in the recovery of the ischemic myocardium. Specifically, endothelial cells (EC) must be able to elicit a robust angiogenic response necessary for tissue revascularization and repair. However, local or distant cues may prevent effective revascularization. Extracellular vesicles (EV) are produced by all cells and endothelium is a rich source of EVs that have access to the main circulation thereby potentially impacting local and distant tissue function. Systemic inflammation associated with conditions such as obesity as well as the acute inflammatory response elicited by a cardiac event can significantly increase the EV release by endothelium and alter their miRNA, protein or lipid cargo. Our laboratory has previously shown that EVs released by adipose tissue endothelial cells exposed to chronic inflammation have angiostatic effects on naïve adipose tissue EC in vitro. Whether the observed effect is specific to EVs from adipose tissue endothelium or is a more general feature of the endothelial EVs exposed to pro-inflammatory cues is currently unclear. The objective of this study was to investigate the angiostatic effects of EVs produced by EC from the coronary artery and adipose microvasculature exposed to pro-inflammatory cytokines (PIC) on naïve coronary artery EC. We have found that EVs from both EC sources have angiostatic effects on the coronary endothelium. EVs produced by cells in a pro-inflammatory environment reduced proliferation and barrier function of EC without impacting cellular senescence. Some of these functional effects could be attributed to the miRNA cargo of EVs. Several miRNAs such as miR-451, let-7, or miR-23a impact on multiple pathways responsible for proliferation, cellular permeability and angiogenesis. Collectively, our data suggests that EVs may compete with pro-angiogenic cues in the ischemic myocardium therefore slowing down the repair response. Acute treatments with inhibitors that prevent endogenous EV release immediately after an ischemic event may contribute to better efficacy of therapeutic approaches using functionalized exogenous EVs or other pro-angiogenic approaches

Tracking the tempo of a continental margin arc: insights from a forearc succession in West Antarctica

The Fossil Bluff Group of eastern Alexander Island records the exceptional preservation of more than 8 km of Mesozoic sedimentary rocks deposited into an accretionary forearc basin that developed unconformably above a late Paleozoic accretionary complex, and in proximity to a continental margin arc during a prolonged phase of enhanced magmatism. Through the Mesozoic, the Fossil Bluff Group evolved from a trench-slope environment to a forearc basin sourced from the continental margin arc. During this period, the Antarctic Peninsula’s convergent margin was characterized by episodes of magmatic flare-ups that developed during tectonic compression, crustal thickening, extension, and uplift. U-Pb and Lu-Hf detrital zircon data are used to determine the provenance of the forearc succession and as a monitor of arc magmatic tempos during the late Mesozoic. The magmatic record in the adjacent arc is poorly preserved or partially absent, but the sedimentary record of the forearc basin preserves a largely uninterrupted record of arc magmatism that can be studied with detrital zircon geochronology and geochemistry. The basal succession of the Fossil Bluff Group is sourced from the adjacent accretionary complex, but thereafter it is strongly controlled by the proximal arc in western Palmer Land and is characterized by a mixed arc/recycled signature during episodes of renewed sedimentation. However, the main phases of deposition during the Early Jurassic (ca. 180 Ma), Early Cretaceous (141–131 Ma), and mid-Cretaceous (125–102 Ma) are dominated by arc-only sources. The Lu-Hf isotopic record supports a transition from convergence to extension and a return to convergence during the Mesozoic, which is consistent with accretionary orogens from elsewhere along the West Gondwanan margin. The provenance record during the depositional history of the basin points overwhelmingly to an autochthonous origin; as such, models for parts of the western province of the Antarctic Peninsula being allochthonous are unsupported

Ist ein bisschen Deradikalisierung besser als keine? Zur Ausstiegsarbeit mit Rückkehrerinnen und Rückkehrern aus dschihadistischen Gruppen in Deutschland

Zwischen 2013 und 2019 verließen mehr als 1.000 zumeist junge Menschen Deutschland, um sich in Syrien und dem Irak dschihadistischen Gruppen anzuschließen. Die bekannteste von ihnen ist der sogenannte "Islamische Staat", auf dessen Konto in den Jahren 2015 und 2016 auch mehrere Anschläge in Europa gingen. An diesen Terrorakten beteiligten sich zurückgekehrte europäische Dschihadisten. Inzwischen gilt der "Islamische Staat" zwar als weitgehend besiegt und ein knappes Drittel der nach Syrien und Irak Ausgereisten ist wieder zurück in Deutschland. Doch nicht alle dieser Rückkehrerinnen und Rückkehrer sind desillusioniert. Einige hängen nach wie vor islamistischen Ideologien an, fast alle sind zudem traumatisiert. Ein nicht unerheblicher Teil befindet sich in Haft. Es stellt sich die Frage, wie der Sicherheitsbedrohung, die von diesen Rückkehrerinnen und Rückkehrern ausgeht, zu begegnen ist. Deutschland beschreitet dabei unter anderem den Weg der Resozialisierung: Ausstiegs- und Reintegrationsmaßnahmen sollen diesen Personen den Weg zurück in die Gesellschaft ermöglichen. Durchgeführt werden solche Maßnahmen sowohl von staatlichen Programmen, als auch von zivilgesellschaftlichen Trägern. Dieses BICC Working Paper untersucht, wie Fachkräfte solcher Träger dieser Aufgabe nachkommen und welchen Hindernissen sie dabei begegnen. Um dies zu erläutern, stellt das Paper den gesamten Komplex von der Rückreise ehemaliger Dschihadistinnen und Dschihadisten aus dem Konfliktgebiet, über ihre psychische und soziale Wiedereingliederung nach der Ankunft in Deutschland bis zum Abschluss des Ausstiegsprozesses dar und untersucht die Herausforderungen, die sich dabei für soziale Arbeit und Prävention ergeben. Hierzu gehören besondere Aspekte der Fallarbeit wie der Umgang mit Traumatisierungen, die Bedarfe minderjähriger Rückkehrerinnen und Rückkehrer, die Arbeit in Haftanstalten sowie die Aufarbeitung extremistischer Ideologien. Die Untersuchung zeigt, dass Fachkräfte sich ihrer Aufgabe zwar professionell gewachsen sehen, jedoch einigen strukturellen Herausforderungen gegenüberstehen. Diese umfassen etwa zeitlich und finanziell begrenzte Projektförderungen, einen Mangel an therapeutischen Kapazitäten sowie Abstimmungsprobleme mit den Justizbehörden bei der Arbeit mit inhaftierten Rückkehrerinnen und Rückkehrern