Водная безопасность в условиях изменяющегося климата

The notion of «the water world we want» is a spin-off of the United Nations campaign The World We Want. It is open to subjective interpretation, as people have different perceptions of a desired future. Each person or organization is likely to identify their own set of key concerns: food, clean (uncontaminated) water, sustained agricultural productivity, sustainable use of land and ocean resources, healthy lives and secure livelihoods. But whatever utopian world view one creates, it cannot be achieved without adequate sustained water supplies.In 2009, the then United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon noted: It is well known that water is life; what this Report shows is that water also means livelihoods. It is the route out of poverty for individuals and communities. Managing water is essential if the world is to achieve sustainable development.This challenge is even more pressing as the world confronts the triple threats of climate change, rising food and energy costs, and the global economic crisis. All three are exacerbating poverty, inequality and underdevelopment.It is apparent that climate, water and weather-related concerns are mounting. Societies are becoming increasingly aware that impacts of extreme hydrometeorological events expected to occur in, say, the 2050s are starting to appear decades earlier. These extreme events — related to climate change — are likely to increase in frequency, intensity and severity. Понятие «водный мир, который мы хотим» связано с кампанией ООН «Мир который мы хотим». Оно открыто к субъективному толкованию, так как люди имеют различное понимание желаемого будущего. Каждый человек или организация вероятно определяет свой собственный набор ключевых озабоченностей: пища, чистая (незагрязненная) вода, устойчивая сельскохозяйственная продуктивность, устойчивое использование земельных и морских ресурсов, здоровая жизнь и безопасные средства к существованию. Но какими бы утопическими не были идеи, их невозможно реализовать без адекватного устойчивого водоснабжения.В 2009 году тогдашний Генеральный Секретарь ООН Пан Ги Мун заметил: «Хорошо известно, что вода это жизнь (имеется ввиду доклад ЮНЕСКО 2009 года «Вода в изменяющемся мире»). Этот доклад показывает, что вода также означает средство к существованию. Это путь от бедности отдельных лиц и общественности.Управление водными ресурсами необходимо, если мир стремится к устойчивому развитию. Этот вызов даже более неотложен, так как мир сталкивается с тремя угрозами – изменение климата, рост цен на продовольствие и энергию, глобальный экономический кризис. Все три угрозы обостряют бедность, неравенство и низкие темпы развития.Становится очевидной возрастающая озабоченность в связи с изменениями климата и состоянием водных ресурсов. Страны мира все больше осознают, что воздействия экстремальных гидрометеорологических явлений, которые могут произойти, скажем, в 2050-х годах, начинают проявляться на несколько десятилетий ранее. Кроме того, высока вероятность увеличения частоты, интенсивности и опасности таких экстремальных событий, связанных с климатическими изменениями.

Water Security in a Changing Climate

The notion of «the water world we want» is a spin-off of the United Nations campaign The World We Want. It is open to subjective interpretation, as people have different perceptions of a desired future. Each person or organization is likely to identify their own set of key concerns: food, clean (uncontaminated) water, sustained agricultural productivity, sustainable use of land and ocean resources, healthy lives and secure livelihoods. But whatever utopian world view one creates, it cannot be achieved without adequate sustained water supplies.In 2009, the then United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon noted: It is well known that water is life; what this Report shows is that water also means livelihoods. It is the route out of poverty for individuals and communities. Managing water is essential if the world is to achieve sustainable development.This challenge is even more pressing as the world confronts the triple threats of climate change, rising food and energy costs, and the global economic crisis. All three are exacerbating poverty, inequality and underdevelopment.It is apparent that climate, water and weather-related concerns are mounting. Societies are becoming increasingly aware that impacts of extreme hydrometeorological events expected to occur in, say, the 2050s are starting to appear decades earlier. These extreme events — related to climate change — are likely to increase in frequency, intensity and severity

Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa

Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Niño events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Niño, the implications of weather patterns for the food security and vulnerability of rural communities have become more predictable and can be monitored effectively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how current advances in the understanding of climate variability, weather patterns and food security could contribute to improved humanitarian decision-making. The paper will propose new approaches for triggering humanitarian responses to weather-induced food crises

Statistical Analysis

In this Appendix, we provide an outline of methods used in analyzing molecular biology data. We give a summary of types of data encountered and the appropriate methods to apply for the questions of interest. Statistical techniques described include the t test, the Wilcoxon rank sum test, the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test, ANOVA, regression, and the chi-square test. For each method, we give the appropriate assumptions, the details of the test, and a complete concrete example to follow. We also discuss related ideas such as multiple comparisons and why correlation does not imply causation

Together we stand, divided we fall: Effects of livestock grazing on vegetation patches in a desert community

Questions Vegetation patches formed by interacting xeric species are the main drivers of dryland structure and function. Plant aggregation enhances microclimatic conditions and triggers abiotic and biotic processes, such as nutrient cycling and accumulation, and species interactions. However, vegetation patches may be modified by disturbances in unpredictable ways. We tested whether livestock grazing affects vegetation structure and plant spatial associations in a desert community, by considering the role of plant species in ecological succession. Location Patagonian Monte Desert, Argentina. Methods We used high-quality standardized photographs along transects to characterize plant community structure (i.e., cover, abundance, richness), spatial patterns (i.e. plant-plant associations), and classified species based on their successional role (i.e. early, intermediate and late species). We used regression models and network analysis to evaluate the effect of grazing on vegetation. Results In general, grazing modified community structure, reducing total cover, abundance and richness. Grazing modulated community spatial patterns, simplifying and removing vegetation patches. The impact of grazing depended on the species successional role. The abundance and cover of early species were less affected by grazing than intermediate and late species, the latter being the most affected. However, species richness significantly decreased with increasing stocking rates, regardless of their successional role. Late species were present in most plant spatial associations, indicating a major contribution to multi-specific vegetation patches formation. Conclusions The reduction in species richness and low abundance of late species highlights the need to prevent irreversible degradation caused by overgrazing. Late species emerge as key structures of vegetation in desert rangelands facilitating the establishment and protecting other plant species. Due to the critical role of vegetation patches in maintaining desert ecosystem functioning, conservation and management practices should focus on late species, while early species, responsible for vegetation patch formation in overgrazed situations, should be preferred for restoration practices