Geomagnetically Induced Current Modeling in New Zealand: Extreme Storm analysis using multiple disturbance scenarios and industry provided hazard magnitudes

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) are induced in electrical power transmission networks during geomagnetic disturbances. Understanding the magnitude and duration of the GIC expected during worst-case extreme storm scenarios is vital to estimate potential damages and disruptions to power networks. In this study we utilize the magnetic field waveforms measured during three large geomagnetic storms and scale them to expected worst case extreme storm magnitudes. Multiple methods are used to simulate the varying magnitude of the magnetic field across the different latitudes of New Zealand. Modeled GIC is produced for nine extreme storm scenarios, each covering 1-1.5 days in duration. Our industry partners, Transpower New Zealand Ltd provided GIC magnitude and duration levels which represent a risk to their transformers. Using these thresholds various extreme storm scenarios predict between 44 and 115 New Zealand transformers (13-35%) are at risk of damaging levels of GIC. The transformers at risk are largely independent of the extreme storm time-variations, but depend more on the latitude variation scenario. We show that these at-risk transformers are not localized to any specific region of New Zealand but extend across all regions and include most of the major population centers. A peak mean absolute GIC over a 60-minute window of 920-2210 A and an instantaneous one-minute time resolution maximum GIC of 1590-4920 A occurs for a worst-case extreme storm scenario. We believe this is one of the first studies to combine a reasonable worst-case extreme geomagnetic storm with validated GIC modeling and industry-provided GIC risk thresholds

Geomagnetically induced current model in New Zealand across multiple disturbances: Validation and extension to non‐monitored transformers

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) produced during geomagnetic disturbances pose a risk to the safe operation of electrical power networks. One route to determine the hazard of large and extreme geomagnetic disturbances to national electrical networks is a validated model to predict GIC across the entire network. In this study we improve upon an earlier model for New Zealand, expanding the approach to cover transformers nationwide by making use of multiple storms to develop national scaling factors. We exploit GIC observations which have been made and archived by Transpower New Zealand Ltd, the national grid operator. For some transformers the GIC observations span nearly 2 decades, while for others only a few years. GICs can vary wildly between transformers, particularly due to differences in the electrical network characteristics , transformer properties, and ground conductivity. Modeling these individual transformers is required if an accurate representation of the GIC distribution throughout the network is to be produced. Here we model the GIC during 25 disturbed periods, ranging from large geomagnetic storms to weakly active periods. We adopt the approach of scaling model output using observed GIC power spectra, finding that it improves the correlations between the maximum model and observed GIC by between 10-40% depending on the transformer. The modeled GIC at the 73 transformers which have measured GIC are analyzed to create local and national scaling curves. These are used to allow modeling for transformers without in-situ GIC. We present approaches to utilise this technique for future storms, including non-monitored transformers

Geomagnetically Induced Current Mitigation in New Zealand: Operational Mitigation Method Development With Industry Input

Reducing the impact of Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) on electrical power networks is an essential step to protect network assets and maintain reliable power transmission during and after storm events. In this study, multiple mitigation strategies are tested during worst-case extreme storm scenarios in order to investigate their effectiveness for the New Zealand transmission network. By working directly with our industry partners, Transpower New Zealand Ltd, a mitigation strategy in the form of targeted line disconnections has been developed. This mitigation strategy proved more effective than previous strategies at reducing GIC magnitudes and durations at transformers at most risk to GIC while still maintaining the continuous supply of power throughout New Zealand. Under this mitigation plan, the average 60-min mean GIC decreased for 27 of the top 30 at-risk transformers, and the total network GIC was reduced by 16%. This updated mitigation has been adopted as an operational procedure in the New Zealand national control room to manage GIC. In addition, simulations show that the installation of 14 capacitor blocking devices at specific transformers reduces the total GIC sum in the network by an additional 16%. As a result of this study Transpower is considering further mitigation in the form of capacitor blockers. We strongly recommend collaborating with the relevant power network providers to develop effective mitigation strategies that reduce GIC and have a minimal impact on power distribution

The correspondence between sudden commencements and geomagnetically induced currents; insights from New Zealand

Variability of the geomagnetic field induces anomalous Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in grounded conducting infrastructure. GICs represent a serious space weather hazard, but are not often measured directly and the rate of change of the magnetic field is often used as a proxy. We assess the correlation between the rate of change of the magnetic field and GICs during Sudden Commencements (SCs), at a location in New Zealand. We observe excellent correlations (r2 ∼ 0.9) between the maximum one-minute rate of change of the field and maximum GIC. Nonetheless, though SCs represent a relatively simple geomagnetic signature, we find that the correspondence systematically depends on several factors. If the SC occurs when New Zealand is on the dayside of the Earth then the magnetic changes are linked to 30% greater GICs than if New Zealand is on the nightside. We investigate, finding that the orientation of the strongest magnetic deflection is important: changes predominantly in the east-west direction drive 36% stronger GICs. Dayside SCs are also associated with faster maximum rates of change of the field at 1 s resolution. Therefore, while the maximum rates of change of the magnetic field and GICs are well correlated, the orientation and sub-one-minute resolution details of the field change are important to consider when estimating the associated currents. Finally, if the SC is later followed by a geomagnetic storm then a given rate of change of the magnetic field is associated with 22% larger GICs, compared to if the SC is isolated