Who will sign a Double Tax Treaty next? A prediction based on economic determinants and machine learning algorithms

Double tax treaties play a crucial role in shaping international economic relations, yet predicting which country pairs are likely to sign tax treaties remains a challenge. This study addresses this gap by employing a novel machine learning approach to predict tax treaty formations. Using data from a wide range of countries, we apply a series of classification algorithms and identify 59 country pairs likely to have tax treaties given their economic conditions. Our findings reveal that variables such as foreign direct investment, trade, Gross Domestic Product, and distance are significant predictors of tax treaty formations. Importantly, we demonstrate that the random forest classification algorithm outperforms conventional econometric methods in predicting tax treaty formations. By identifying which potential treaties exhibit a high probability of success, this paper gives policymakers an indication where to focus their attention and resources in upcoming treaty negotiations

Sit-to-Stand Analysis in the Wild using Silhouettes for Longitudinal Health Monitoring

We present the first fully automated Sit-to-Stand or Stand-to-Sit (StS) analysis framework for long-term monitoring of patients in free-living environments using video silhouettes. Our method adopts a coarse-to-fine time localisation approach, where a deep learning classifier identifies possible StS sequences from silhouettes, and a smart peak detection stage provides fine localisation based on 3D bounding boxes. We tested our method on data from real homes of participants and monitored patients undergoing total hip or knee replacement. Our results show 94.4% overall accuracy in the coarse localisation and an error of 0.026 m/s in the speed of ascent measurement, highlighting important trends in the recuperation of patients who underwent surgery

Fiscal Policy, Trigger Points and Interest Rates: Additional Evidence From the U.S.

We empirically investigate whether the relationship between interest rates and public deficits/debt may be nonlinear for the U.S. Using threshold estimation, we find evidence of level-dependent effects on interest rates, implying a significant effect of projected deficits and debt in the U.S. only if the deficit surpasses approximately 5% of GDP

N-acetylcysteine does not prevent contrast-induced nephropathy after cardiac catheterization in patients with diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease: a randomized clinical trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) constitute to be a high-risk population for the development of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN), in which the incidence of CIN is estimated to be as high as 50%. We performed this trial to assess the efficacy of <it>N</it>-acetylcysteine (NAC) in the prevention of this complication.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a prospective, double-blind, placebo controlled, randomized clinical trial, we studied 90 patients undergoing elective diagnostic coronary angiography with DM and CKD (serum creatinine ≥ 1.5 mg/dL for men and ≥ 1.4 mg/dL for women). The patients were randomly assigned to receive either oral NAC (600 mg BID, starting 24 h before the procedure) or placebo, in adjunct to hydration. Serum creatinine was measured prior to and 48 h after coronary angiography. The primary end-point was the occurrence of CIN, defined as an increase in serum creatinine ≥ 0.5 mg/dL (44.2 μmol/L) or ≥ 25% above baseline at 48 h after exposure to contrast medium.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Complete data on the outcomes were available on 87 patients, 45 of whom had received NAC. There were no significant differences between the NAC and placebo groups in baseline characteristics, amount of hydration, or type and volume of contrast used, except in gender (male/female, 20/25 and 34/11, respectively; P = 0.005) and the use of statins (62.2% and 37.8%, respectively; P = 0.034). CIN occurred in 5 out of 45 (11.1%) patients in the NAC group and 6 out of 42 (14.3%) patients in the placebo group (P = 0.656).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There was no detectable benefit for the prophylactic administration of oral NAC over an aggressive hydration protocol in patients with DM and CKD.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NCT00808795</p

A meta-analysis of N-acetylcysteine in contrast-induced nephrotoxicity: unsupervised clustering to resolve heterogeneity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Meta-analyses of N-acetylcysteine (NAC) for preventing contrast-induced nephrotoxicity (CIN) have led to disparate conclusions. Here we examine and attempt to resolve the heterogeneity evident among these trials.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two reviewers independently extracted and graded the data. Limiting studies to randomized, controlled trials with adequate outcome data yielded 22 reports with 2746 patients.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Significant heterogeneity was detected among these trials (<it>I</it>²= 37%; <it>p </it>= 0.04). Meta-regression analysis failed to identify significant sources of heterogeneity. A modified L'Abbé plot that substituted groupwise changes in serum creatinine for nephrotoxicity rates, followed by model-based, unsupervised clustering resolved trials into two distinct, significantly different (<it>p </it>< 0.0001) and homogeneous populations (<it>I</it>²= 0 and <it>p </it>> 0.5, for both). Cluster 1 studies (<it>n </it>= 18; 2445 patients) showed no benefit (relative risk (RR) = 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68–1.12, <it>p </it>= 0.28), while cluster 2 studies (<it>n </it>= 4; 301 patients) indicated that NAC was highly beneficial (RR = 0.15; 95% CI 0.07–0.33, <it>p </it>< 0.0001). Benefit in cluster 2 was unexpectedly associated with NAC-induced decreases in creatinine from baseline (<it>p </it>= 0.07). Cluster 2 studies were relatively early, small and of lower quality compared with cluster 1 studies (<it>p </it>= 0.01 for the three factors combined). Dialysis use across all studies (five control, eight treatment; <it>p </it>= 0.42) did not suggest that NAC is beneficial.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This meta-analysis does not support the efficacy of NAC to prevent CIN.</p

The Impact of Public Budgets on Overall Productivity Growth

To fulfil their tasks, governments rely on public expenditures and taxes. Both influence the incentives and shape the decisions and actions of private economic agents. As governments resort to both instruments simultaneously, their combined theoretical impact on economic performance is a priori indeterminate. Clarification can only come from empirical evaluations. This paper reviews the recent literature trying to quantify the impact of fiscal policies on productivity and growth. Unfortunately, this survey shows that the empirical literature too is inconclusive: although the growth and composition of public expenditures and taxes as well as the fiscal stance seem to have some effect in the short run, their long-run implications cannot easily be quantified because of, e.g., reverse causation and crowding-out effects. The empirical evidence on the growth effects of government size points at a non-linear relationship: For small governments additional public expenditures seem to have a positive impact on growth, while for large governments further additions tend to be growth-retarding. It is an open question, however, where the optimum is located

Prevention of acute kidney injury and protection of renal function in the intensive care unit

Acute renal failure on the intensive care unit is associated with significant mortality and morbidity. To determine recommendations for the prevention of acute kidney injury (AKI), focusing on the role of potential preventative maneuvers including volume expansion, diuretics, use of inotropes, vasopressors/vasodilators, hormonal interventions, nutrition, and extracorporeal techniques. A systematic search of the literature was performed for studies using these potential protective agents in adult patients at risk for acute renal failure/kidney injury between 1966 and 2009. The following clinical conditions were considered: major surgery, critical illness, sepsis, shock, and use of potentially nephrotoxic drugs and radiocontrast media. Where possible the following endpoints were extracted: creatinine clearance, glomerular filtration rate, increase in serum creatinine, urine output, and markers of tubular injury. Clinical endpoints included the need for renal replacement therapy, length of stay, and mortality. Studies are graded according to the international Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) group system Several measures are recommended, though none carries grade 1A. We recommend prompt resuscitation of the circulation with special attention to providing adequate hydration whilst avoiding high-molecular-weight hydroxy-ethyl starch (HES) preparations, maintaining adequate blood pressure using vasopressors in vasodilatory shock. We suggest using vasopressors in vasodilatory hypotension, specific vasodilators under strict hemodynamic control, sodium bicarbonate for emergency procedures administering contrast media, and periprocedural hemofiltration in severe chronic renal insufficiency undergoing coronary intervention