Interseismic ground velocities in Central Apennines from GPS and InSAR measurements: new contributions for seismic hazard models by preliminary results of ESA CHARMING project

The contribution of space geodetic techniques to interseismic velocity estimation, and thus seismic hazard modelling, has been recognized since two decades and made possible in more recent years by the increased availability and accuracy of geodetic measurements. We present the preliminary results of a feasibility study performed within the CHARMING project (Constraining Seismic Hazard Models with InSAR and GPS), funded by the European Space Agency (ESA). For a 200 km x 200 km study area, covering the Abruzzi region (central Italy) we measure the mean surface deformation rates from Synthetic Aperture Radar and GPS, finding several local to regional deformation gradients consistent with the tectonic context. We then use a kinematic finite element model to derive the long-term strain rates, as well as earthquake recurrence relations. In turn these are input to state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic hazard models, the output of which is validated statistically using data from the Italian national accelerometric and macroseismic intensity databases.Published373-3773T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischioN/A or not JCRope

Mid-term review results of the ESA STSE Pathfinder CHARMING project (Constraining Seismic Hazard Models with InSAR and GPS)

We probe the feasibility of integrating GPS and Synthetic Aperture Radar deformation rates within the seismic hazard models of the central Apennines (Italy), exploiting data from over 100 GPS stations and the ~20- year long ERS and ENVISAT SAR image archive. We then use a kinematic finite element model to derive the long-term strain rates, as well as earthquake recurrence relations. In turn these are input to state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic hazard models, the output of which is validated statistically using data from the Italian national accelerometric and macroseismic intensity databases.Published23-273T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischioN/A or not JCRrestricte

The role of sentinel node tumor burden in modeling the prognosis of melanoma patients with positive sentinel node biopsy: an Italian melanoma intergroup study (N = 2,086)

Background The management of melanoma patients with metastatic melanoma in the sentinel nodes (SN) is evolving based on the results of trials questioning the impact of completion lymph node dissection (CLND) and demonstrating the efficacy of new adjuvant treatments. In this landscape, new prognostic tools for fine risk stratification are eagerly sought to optimize the therapeutic path of these patients. Methods A retrospective cohort of 2,086 patients treated with CLND after a positive SN biopsy in thirteen Italian Melanoma Centers was reviewed. Overall survival (OS) was the outcome of interest; included independent variables were the following: age, gender, primary melanoma site, Breslow thickness, ulceration, sentinel node tumor burden (SNTB), number of positive SN, non-sentinel lymph nodes (NSN) status. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazard regression model. Results The 3-year, 5-year and 10-year OS rates were 79%, 70% and 54%, respectively. At univariate analysis, all variables, except for primary melanoma body site, were found to be statistically significant prognostic factors. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that older age (P < 0.0001), male gender (P = 0.04), increasing Breslow thickness (P < 0.0001), presence of ulceration (P = 0.004), SNTB size (P < 0.0001) and metastatic NSN (P < 0.0001) were independent negative predictors of OS. Conclusion The above results were utilized to build a nomogram in order to ease the practical implementation of our prognostic model, which might improve treatment personalization

Earthquake rupture forecasts for the mps19 seismic hazard model of Italy

In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone-based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone-based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault-based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model

Partnership Encounters in Literature(s), Poetry and Voices from Other Worlds

The academic bulk of this year’s Blue Gum contains texts in both English and Italian. Out of fourteen articles, seven are in Italian and seven in English. They all scrutinise and illuminate a diversity of relevant literary works under the lens of the biocultural partnership-domination theory (Eisler 1987). The literary texts in this issue range from the ancient to the contemporary, from ‘canon’ to post-decolonial literature, in a joyful variety of interrelated recurrences, connections and encounters. William Shakespeare, Walter Scott, Doris Lessing, Ursula Le Guin, Bram Stoker, David Malouf and Jean Rhys are just few of the many writers tackled by our invited authors

Anastrozole versus tamoxifen for the prevention of locoregional and contralateral breast cancer in postmenopausal women with locally excised ductal carcinoma in situ (IBIS-II DCIS): a double-blind, randomised controlled trial

Background Third-generation aromatase inhibitors are more effective than tamoxifen for preventing recurrence in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive invasive breast cancer. However, it is not known whether anastrozole is more effective than tamoxifen for women with hormone-receptor-positive ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Here, we compare the efficacy of anastrozole with that of tamoxifen in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive DCIS. Methods In a double-blind, multicentre, randomised placebo-controlled trial, we recruited women who had been diagnosed with locally excised, hormone-receptor-positive DCIS. Eligible women were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio by central computer allocation to receive 1 mg oral anastrozole or 20 mg oral tamoxifen every day for 5 years. Randomisation was stratified by major centre or hub and was done in blocks (six, eight, or ten). All trial personnel, participants, and clinicians were masked to treatment allocation and only the trial statistician had access to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was all recurrence, including recurrent DCIS and new contralateral tumours. All analyses were done on a modified intention-to-treat basis (in all women who were randomised and did not revoke consent for their data to be included) and proportional hazard models were used to compute hazard ratios and corresponding confidence intervals. This trial is registered at the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN37546358. Results Between March 3, 2003, and Feb 8, 2012, we enrolled 2980 postmenopausal women from 236 centres in 14 countries and randomly assigned them to receive anastrozole (1449 analysed) or tamoxifen (1489 analysed). Median follow-up was 7·2 years (IQR 5·6–8·9), and 144 breast cancer recurrences were recorded. We noted no statistically significant difference in overall recurrence (67 recurrences for anastrozole vs 77 for tamoxifen; HR 0·89 [95% CI 0·64–1·23]). The non-inferiority of anastrozole was established (upper 95% CI <1·25), but its superiority to tamoxifen was not (p=0·49). A total of 69 deaths were recorded (33 for anastrozole vs 36 for tamoxifen; HR 0·93 [95% CI 0·58–1·50], p=0·78), and no specific cause was more common in one group than the other. The number of women reporting any adverse event was similar between anastrozole (1323 women, 91%) and tamoxifen (1379 women, 93%); the side-effect profiles of the two drugs differed, with more fractures, musculoskeletal events, hypercholesterolaemia, and strokes with anastrozole and more muscle spasm, gynaecological cancers and symptoms, vasomotor symptoms, and deep vein thromboses with tamoxifen. Conclusions No clear efficacy differences were seen between the two treatments. Anastrozole offers another treatment option for postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive DCIS, which may be be more appropriate for some women with contraindications for tamoxifen. Longer follow-up will be necessary to fully evaluate treatment differences

Strutture complesse, libero pensiero. Teorie e progetti di Redesco

monografia sullo studio di ingegneria italiano Redesc