International comparisons of sectoral energy- and labour-productivity performance. Stylised facts and decomposition of trends

This paper addresses the interplay between economic growth, energy use, change in sectoral composition and technological change, by exploring trends in energy- and labour productivity development for 14 OECD countries and four sectors over the period 1970-1997. A cross-country decomposition analysis reveals that in some countries structural changes contributed considerably to macroeconomic energy-productivity growth while in other countries they partly offset energy-efficiency improvements. In contrast, structural changes only play a minor role in explaining macroeconomic labour-productivity developments. We also find labour productivity growth to be higher on average than energy productivity growth. Over time, this bias towards labour productivity growth is increasing in Transport, Agriculture and Manufacturing, while it is decreasing in Services

Structural Change and the Fall of Income Inequality in Latin America : Agricultural Development, Inter-sectoral Duality, and the Kuznets Curve

In this study we approach the recent decline in income inequality in Latin America from the perspective of structural change with a focus on the relative performance of the agricultural sector. Our focus is on the underlying forces implied by Kuznets (1965). We zoom in on the relative performance of agriculture in the development process and the rural-urban duality and pay particular attention to the last couple of decades in relation to the entire post-1950 period. We attempt to estimate empirically possible theoretical relations with regard to these patterns by posing the following basic questions: how does the resurgence of agriculture relate to the reduction of income inequality and to what extent is this an expression of Latin America moving downward on the Kuznets curve? The literature on agriculture’s relation to the recent changes of income distribution in Latin America is quite limited. For instance, in a recent ECLAC report titled “Structural change for equality” (2012), the role of agriculture is not even mentioned. By agriculture we mean both farming and agro-business that processes and transports that output. To our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to investigate this relationship for the recent decades in the perspective of structural change in Latin America. There are strong theoretical reasons to connect agricultural development to income distribution. The closing of the rural-urban income gap reflects what Reynolds (1975) called a “dynamic” transformation of agriculture and relates to the contribution agriculture provides for overall growth of the economy. In addition, the elasticity of poverty reduction with respect to growth is estimated to be stronger when growth emanates in the agricultural sector (Ravallion and Chen 2007, de Janvry and Sadoulet 2009). Productivity growth in the lagging sector should also contribute to sectoral labor productivity to convergence and thus helps to reduce inequality (Timmer 1988). For these reasons, the resurgence of agriculture driven partly by improving commodity prices should be given due attention when assessing the decline in income inequality in Latin America. According to the logic of the Kuznets curve, the hypothesized “turning point” of the inverted U-curve is generated by a reduction of income inequality in one or both of the sectors and/or a reduction of the rural-urban income gap as the weight of the agricultural sector diminishes, and the income per capita gap between them declines. We find that the recent decline in income inequality is related to the recent resurgence of Latin American agriculture, and, by inference, its lack of decline across most of the 20th century must be related to a lack of productivity change in agriculture. We provide estimates showing that during the recent decades inter-sectoral duality has been reduced by agricultural productivity growth. The duality expressed as an inter-sectoral Gini shows the shape of an inverted U-curve and as such the closing of the rural-urban income gap corroborates with the theoretical expectations postulated by Kuznets. The wider implication of the study is, however, that with slower growth in agricultural labor productivity, continuing improvement in the income distribution becomes more difficult. In the absence of strong manufacturing growth, agriculture might be able to reduce income inequality further if agro-industries remain unskilled labor intensive, thus raising the opportunity cost of unskilled workers. On the other hand, the traditional service sector has perhaps become the “new agricultural sector” in terms of productivity and labor surplus. In other words, the source of the remaining dualism does not come only from rural areas, but also from urban areas

Growth and cycles of the Italian economy since 1861: the new evidence

Based on a newly-available large set of historical national accounts, the paper revisits the main features of economic growth and cycles in Italy for the post-Unification period 1861-2011. Alongside the structural changes in growth dynamics, the main sources of output and productivity growth are identified. As regards the analysis of the underlying cyclical component, a business cycle chronology is first established and then both the specific patterns of individual cycles and the co-movements of output with key macroeconomic variables are investigated. In the 150 years since its political Unification, Italy's economic growth was mainly propelled by consumption and investments, whereas on the supply side the industry and services sectors were by far the main contributors, also because of the positive effect of labour reallocation to nonfarm activities. Over the same period, Italy experienced approximately 20 business cycles of varying duration and amplitude. Output fluctuations were dominated by the short-term variability of agricultural production before World War II and by fluctuations of the industry sector thereafter. The cyclical behaviour exhibited by aggregate demand components conforms quite well to that evidenced in the standard international business cycle literature, although some exceptions arise in the pre-World War II years

Decoupling Economic Growth and Energy Use. An Empirical Cross-Country Analysis for 10 Manufacturing Sectors

This paper provides an empirical analysis of decoupling economic growth and energy use and its various determinants by exploring trends in energy- and labour productivity across 10 manufacturing sectors and 14 OECD countries for the period 1970-1997. We explicitly aim to trace back aggregate developments in the manufacturing sector to developments at the level of individual subsectors. A cross-country decomposition analysis reveals that in some countries structural changes contributed considerably to aggregate manufacturing energy-productivity growth and, hence, to decoupling, while in other countries they partly offset energy-efficiency improvements. In contrast, structural changes only play a minor role in explaining aggregate manufacturing labour-productivity developments. Furthermore, we find labour-productivity growth to be higher on average than energy-productivity growth. Over time, this bias towards labour-productivity growth is increasing in the aggregate manufacturing sector, while it is decreasing in most manufacturing subsectors

Mapping Marginality Hotspots: Geographical Targeting for Poverty Reduction

This mapping approach aims to make the marginalized and poor visible by identifying areas with difficult biophysical and socio-economic conditions. Mapping using different data sources and data types gives deeper insight into possible causal interlinkages and offers the opportunity for comprehensive analysis. The maps highlight areas where different dimensions of marginality overlap - the marginality hotspots - based on proxies for marginality dimensions representing different spheres of life. Furthermore, overlaying the marginality hotspots with the number of poor shows where most of the poor could be reached to help them to escape the spiral of poverty. Marginality hotspots can be found in particular in India and Nepal as well as in several countries in Central and Eastern Africa, such as Eritrea, Mozambique, Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Northern Sudan and large parts of Niger. Maps showing the overlap between marginality and poverty highlight that the largest number of marginalized poor are located in India and Bangladesh, as well as in Ethiopia, Southeastern Africa and some parts of Western Africa

Openness to International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation

In this paper, we revisit the empirical evidence on the relationship between trade openness and long-run economic growth over the sample period 1960-2000. In contrast to previous studies focusing mainly on the period 1970-1990, this paper reassesses the openness-growth nexus over a much longer sample period, enabling us to better account both trade policy stance and long-run growth dynamics. We carry out our empirical investigation by employing various openness measures suggested in the literature rather than relying on a few proxy variables. We also construct three additional composite trade policy indexes directly measuring trade policy stance. Our findings indicate that many openness variables are positively and significantly correlated with long-run economic growth. However, in some cases, this result is driven by the presence of a few outlying countries. Adding to the fragility of the openness-growth association, the significance of openness variables disappears once other growth determinants, such as institutions, population heterogeneity, geography and macroeconomic stability are accounted for