Reproducible Aggregation of Sample-Split Statistics

Statistical inference is often simplified by sample-splitting. This simplification comes at the cost of the introduction of randomness not native to the data. We propose a simple procedure for sequentially aggregating statistics constructed with multiple splits of the same sample. The user specifies a bound and a nominal error rate. If the procedure is implemented twice on the same data, the nominal error rate approximates the chance that the results differ by more than the bound. We analyze the accuracy of the nominal error rate and illustrate the application of the procedure to several widely applied statistical methods

Is ambient noise tomography across ocean basins possible?

International audienceBased on year-long cross-correlations of broad-band seismic records obtained at sixty-six stations within or adjacent to the Pacific Basin, we show that broad-band ambient noise is observed to propagate coherently between island stations and between island and continent stations. For many station pairs, high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) fundamental mode Rayleigh wave Green functions are observed, which establishes the physical basis for ambient noise tomography across the Pacific. Similar trends for continental and oceanic stations are observed in the relationship between the ambient noise level at a station and the ''noise coherence distance'' – the longest distance at which a high SNR cross-correlation signal is observed for a station. Because locally generated noise obscures long distance coherent noise, situating stations at quiet locations on islands is necessary for the success of ambient noise tomography. Local noise poses a particular challenge at atoll sites and, on the basis of analysis of data from station H2O, at ocean bottom sites at periods above $25 sec

A study of possible temporal and latitudinal variations in the properties of the solar tachocline

Temporal variations of the structure and the rotation rate of the solar tachocline region are studied using helioseismic data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) and the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) obtained during the period 1995--2000. We do not find any significant temporal variation in the depth of the convection zone, the position of the tachocline or the extent of overshoot below the convection zone. No systematic variation in any other properties of the tachocline, like width, etc., is found either. Possibility of periodic variations in these properties is also investigated. Time-averaged results show that the tachocline is prolate with a variation by about 0.02R_sun in its position. The depth of the convection zone or the extent of overshoot does not show any significant variation with latitude.Comment: To appear in MNRA

Meridional Circulation and Global Solar Oscillations

We investigate the influence of large-scale meridional circulation on solar p-modes by quasi-degenerate perturbation theory, as proposed by \cite{lavely92}. As an input flow we use various models of stationary meridional circulation obeying the continuity equation. This flow perturbs the eigenmodes of an equilibrium model of the Sun. We derive the signatures of the meridional circulation in the frequency multiplets of solar p-modes. In most cases the meridional circulation leads to negative average frequency shifts of the multiplets. Further possible observable effects are briefly discussed.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, submittted to Solar Physics Topical Issue "HELAS

Evaluation of Population-Level Changes Associated With the 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force Lung Cancer Screening Recommendations in Community-Based Health Care Systems

Importance: The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) released updated lung cancer screening recommendations in 2021, lowering the screening age from 55 to 50 years and smoking history from 30 to 20 pack-years. These changes are expected to expand screening access to women and racial and ethnic minority groups. Objective: To estimate the population-level changes associated with the 2021 USPSTF expansion of lung cancer screening eligibility by sex, race and ethnicity, sociodemographic factors, and comorbidities in 5 community-based health care systems. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study analyzed data of patients who received care from any of 5 community-based health care systems (which are members of the Population-based Research to Optimize the Screening Process Lung Consortium, a collaboration that conducts research to better understand how to improve the cancer screening processes in community health care settings) from January 1, 2010, through September 30, 2019. Individuals who had complete smoking history and were engaged with the health care system for 12 or more continuous months were included. Those who had never smoked or who had unknown smoking history were excluded. Exposures: Electronic health record-derived age, sex, race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), comorbidities, and smoking history. Main Outcomes and Measures: Differences in the proportion of the newly eligible population by age, sex, race and ethnicity, Charlson Comorbidity Index, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis, and SES as well as lung cancer diagnoses under the 2013 recommendations vs the expected cases under the 2021 recommendations were evaluated using χ2 tests. Results: As of September 2019, there were 341 163 individuals aged 50 to 80 years who currently or previously smoked. Among these, 34 528 had electronic health record data that captured pack-year and quit-date information and were eligible for lung cancer screening according to the 2013 USPSTF recommendations. The 2021 USPSTF recommendations expanded screening eligibility to 18 533 individuals, representing a 53.7% increase. Compared with the 2013 cohort, the newly eligible 2021 population included 5833 individuals (31.5%) aged 50 to 54 years, a larger proportion of women (52.0% [n = 9631]), and more racial or ethnic minority groups. The relative increases in the proportion of newly eligible individuals were 60.6% for Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Pacific Islander; 67.4% for Hispanic; 69.7% for non-Hispanic Black; and 49.0% for non-Hispanic White groups. The relative increase for women was 13.8% higher than for men (61.2% vs 47.4%), and those with a lower comorbidity burden and lower SES had higher relative increases (eg, 68.7% for a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 0; 61.1% for lowest SES). The 2021 recommendations were associated with an estimated 30% increase in incident lung cancer diagnoses compared with the 2013 recommendations. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study suggests that, in diverse health care systems, adopting the 2021 USPSTF recommendations will increase the number of women, racial and ethnic minority groups, and individuals with lower SES who are eligible for lung cancer screening, thus helping to minimize the barriers to screening access for individuals with high risk for lung cancer

Success Factors of European Syndromic Surveillance Systems: A Worked Example of Applying Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Introduction: Syndromic surveillance aims at augmenting traditional public health surveillance with timely information. To gain a head start, it mainly analyses existing data such as from web searches or patient records. Despite the setup of many syndromic surveillance systems, there is still much doubt about the benefit of the approach. There are diverse interactions between performance indicators such as timeliness and various system characteristics. This makes the performance assessment of syndromic surveillance systems a complex endeavour. We assessed if the comparison of several syndromic surveillance systems through Qualitative Comparative Analysis helps to evaluate performance and identify key success factors. Materials and Methods: We compiled case-based, mixed data on performance and characteristics of 19 syndromic surveillance systems in Europe from scientific and grey literature and from site visits. We identified success factors by applying crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. We focused on two main areas of syndromic surveillance application: seasonal influenza surveillance and situational awareness during different types of potentially health threatening events. Results: We found that syndromic surveillance systems might detect the onset or peak of seasonal influenza earlier if they analyse non-clinical data sources. Timely situational awareness during different types of events is supported by an automated syndromic surveillance system capable of analysing multiple syndromes. To our surprise, the analysis of multiple data sources was no key success factor for situational awareness. Conclusions: We suggest to consider these key success factors when designing or further developing syndromic surveillance systems. Qualitative Comparative Analysis helped interpreting complex, mixed data on small-N cases and resulted in concrete and practically relevant findings

Transition to Virtual Asthma Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Observational Study

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic increased reliance on virtual care for patients with persistent asthma. OBJECTIVE: This retrospective cohort study assessed changes from in-person to virtual care during the pandemic. In patients with persistent asthma, compared with the same period before the pandemic. METHODS: Kaiser Permanente Colorado members aged 18 to 99 years with persistent asthma were evaluated during two periods (March to October 2019 and March to October 2020). Comparison of asthma exacerbations (hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and courses of oral prednisone) and asthma medication metrics were evaluated between the two periods and by type of care received during the pandemic (no care, virtual care only, in-person care only, or a mix of virtual and in-person care). Population characteristics by type of care received during the pandemic were also evaluated. RESULTS: Among 7,805 adults with persistent asthma, those who used more virtual care or sought no care during the pandemic were younger and had fewer comorbidities, mental health diagnoses, or financial barriers. Exacerbations decreased (0.264 to 0.214; P <.001) as did courses of prednisone (0.213 to 0.169). Asthma medication adherence (0.53 to 0.54; P <.001) and the asthma medication ratio, a quality-of-care metric (0.755 to 0.762; P [ .019), increased slightly. Patients receiving a mix of in-person and virtual care had the highest rate of exacerbations (0.83) and a lower asthma medication ratio (0.74) despite having the highest adherence (.57). CONCLUSIONS: Despite an increase in virtual care, asthma exacerbations decreased except among individuals who received both in-person and virtual care, likely because they had more severe disease.Ye

Surface wave tomography across Afar, Ethiopia: crustal structure at a rift triple-junction zone

The Afar Depression in northeast Africa contains the rift triple-junction between the Nubia, Arabia and Somalia plates. We analyze Rayleigh wave group velocity from 250 regional earthquakes recorded by 40 broadband stations to study the crustal structure across Afar and adjacent plateau regions in northern Ethiopia. The dispersion velocities are inverted to obtain surface wave tomographic maps for periods between 5 and 25 seconds, sensitive to approximately the top 30 km of the lithosphere. The tomographic maps show a significant low dispersion velocity anomaly (>20%) within the upper crust, below the site of recent dyke intrusions (2005–present) in the Dabbahu and Manda-Hararo magmatic segments. Similar low velocity regions are imaged where magma intrusion in the Afar crust has been inferred over the last decade from seismicity or volcanic eruptions. We invert two group velocity curves to compare the S-wave velocity structure of the crust within an active magmatic segment with that of adjacent areas; the active region has a low velocity zone (Vs ∼ 3.2 km/s), between about 6–12 km, which we infer to be due to the presence of partial melt within the lower crust

Simulated Anthrax Attacks and Syndromic Surveillance

Bioterrorism surveillance systems can be assessed using modeling to simulate real-world attacks