Estimating hurricane hazards using a GIS system

Abstract. This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to the Multi-Hazard model method, with reference to hurricanes. This approach has three components: data integration, hazard assessment and score calculation to estimate elements at risk such as affected area and affected population. First, spatial data integration issues within a GIS environment, such as geographical scales and data models, are addressed. Particularly, the integration of physical parameters and population data is achieved linking remotely sensed data with a high resolution population distribution in GIS. In order to assess the number of affected people, involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is basic. Second, specific multi-hazard tasks, such as hazard behaviour simulation and elements at risk assessment, are composed in order to understand complex hazard and provide support for decision making. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach herein presented can be used to assist emergency management of hurricane consequences, in theory and in practice.</p

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction systems based on Linux cluster architectures

The progress in weather forecast and atmospheric science has been always closely linked to the improvement of computing technology. In order to have more accurate weather forecasts and climate predictions, more powerful computing resources are needed, in addition to more complex and better-performing numerical models. To overcome such a large computing request, powerful workstations or massive parallel systems have been used. In the last few years, parallel architectures, based on the Linux operating system, have been introduced and became popular, representing real“high performance–low cost” systems. In this work the Linux cluster experience achieved at the Laboratory for Meteorology and Environmental Analysis (LaMMA-CNR-IBIMET) is described and tips and performances analysed

A Bioinformatics Approach to Investigate Structural and Non-Structural Proteins in Human Coronaviruses

Recent studies confirmed that people unexposed to SARS-CoV-2 have preexisting reactivity, probably due to previous exposure to widely circulating common cold coronaviruses. Such preexistent reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 comes from memory T cells that can specifically recognize a SARS-CoV-2 epitope of structural and non-structural proteins and the homologous epitopes from common cold coronaviruses. Therefore, it is important to understand the SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactivity by investigating these protein sequence similarities with those of different circulating coronaviruses. In addition, the emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants lead to an intense interest in whether mutations in proteins (especially in the spike) could potentially compromise vaccine effectiveness. Since it is not clear that the differences in clinical outcomes are caused by common cold coronaviruses, a deeper investigation on cross-reactive T-cell immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is crucial to examine the differential COVID-19 symptoms and vaccine performance. Therefore, the present study can be a starting point for further research on cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2, including the most recent variants Delta and Omicron. In the end, a deep learning approach, based on Siamese networks, is proposed to accurately and efficiently calculate a BLAST-like similarity score between protein sequences

Residual aneurysmal sac shrinkage post-endovascular aneurysm repair: the role of preoperative inflammatory markers

Introduction: In this study, we evaluated the role of preoperative inflammatory markers as Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte (NLR) and Platelet-to-Lymphocyte (PLR) ratios in relation to post-endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) sac shrinkage, which is known to be an important factor for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) healing. Methods: This was a single-center retrospective observational study. All patients who underwent the EVAR procedure from January 2017 to December 2020 were eligible for this study. Pre-operative blood samples of all patients admitted were used to calculate NLR and PLR. Sac shrinkage was defined as a decrease of ≥5 mm in the maximal sac diameter. The optimal NLR and PLR cut-offs for aneurysmal sac shrinkage were obtained from ROC curves. Stepwise multivariate analysis was performed in order to identify independent risk and protective factors for the absence of AAA shrinkage. Kaplan–Meier curves were used to evaluate survival rates with respect to the AAA shrinkage. Results: A total of 184 patients were finally enrolled. The mean age was 75.8 ± 8.3 years, and 85.9% were male (158/184). At a mean follow-up of 43 ± 18 months, sac shrinkage was registered in 107 patients (58.1%). No-shrinking AAA patients were more likely to be older, to have a higher level of NLR and PLR, and be an active smoker. Kaplan–Meier curves highlighted a higher rate of survival for shrinking AAA patients with respect to their counterparts (p &lt; 0.03). Multivariate analysis outlined active smoking and NLR as independent risk factors for no-shrinking AAA. Conclusions: Inflammation emerged as a possible causative factor for no-shrinking AAA, playing a role in aneurysmal sac remodeling. This study revealed that inflammatory biomarkers, such as NLR and PLR, can be used as a preoperative index of AAA sac behavior after EVAR procedures

Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair With Ovation Alto Stent Graft: Protocol for the ALTAIR (ALTo endogrAft Italian Registry) Study

Background: Since 2010, the Ovation Abdominal Stent Graft System has offered an innovative sealing option for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) by including a sealing ring filled with polymer 13 mm from the renal arteries. In August 2020, the redesigned Ovation Alto, with a sealing ring 6 mm closer to the top of the fabric, received CE Mark approval. Objective: This registry study aims to evaluate intraoperative, perioperative, and postoperative results in patients treated by the Alto stent graft (Endologix Inc.) for elective AAA repair in a multicentric consecutive experience. Methods: All consecutive eligible patients submitted to endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) by Alto Endovascular AAA implantation will be included in this analysis. Patients will be submitted to EVAR procedures based on their own preferences, anatomical features, and operators experience. An estimated number of 300 patients submitted to EVAR with Alto stent graft should be enrolled. It is estimated that the inclusion period will be 24 months. The follow-up period is set to be 5 years. Full data sets and cross-sectional images of contrast-enhanced computed tomography scan performed before EVAR, at the first postoperative month, at 24 or 36 months, and at 5-year follow-up interval will be reported in the central database for a centralized core laboratory review of morphological changes. The primary endpoint of the study is to evaluate the technical and clinical success of EVAR with the Alto stent graft in short- (90-day), mid- (1-year), and long-term (5-year) follow-up periods. The following secondary endpoints will be also addressed: operative time; intraoperative radiation exposure; contrast medium usage; AAA sac shrinkage at 12-month and 5-year follow-up; any potential role of patients' baseline characteristics, valuated on preoperative computed tomography angiographic study, and of device configuration (number of component) in the primary endpoint. Results: The study is currently in the recruitment phase and the final patient is expected to be treated by the end of 2023 and then followed up for 5 years. A total of 300 patients will be recruited. Analyses will focus on primary and secondary endpoints. Updated results will be shared at 1- and 3-5-year follow-ups. Conclusions: The results from this registry study could validate the safety and effectiveness of the new design of the Ovation Alto Stent Graft. The technical modifications to the endograft could allow for accommodation of a more comprehensive range of anatomies on-label

High Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte and Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratios Are Associated with a Higher Risk of Hemodialysis Vascular Access Failure

Our aim was to determine the predictive role of the preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in vascular access malfunctioning in patients who had undergone their first native arterio-venous fistula (AVF) for hemodialysis. Methods: This was a single-center retrospective observational study. All patients who underwent the procedure of the creation of a first native AVF for hemodialysis from January 2019 to December 2020 were considered eligible to be part of this study. Reinterventions for AVF malfunctioning were registered and the population was subdivided into two groups with respect to AVF malfunctioning. ROC curves were obtained to find the appropriate cut-off values for the NLR and PLR. A multivariate analysis was used to identify the independent predictors for an AVF malfunction. Kaplan–Meier curves were used to evaluate the AVF patency rates. A total of 178 patients were enrolled in the study, of them 70% (n = 121) were male. The mean age was 67.5 ± 12 years. Reinterventions for AVF malfunctioning were performed on 102 patients (57.3%). An NLR &gt; 4.21 and a PLR &gt; 208.8 was selected as the cut-off for AVF malfunctioning. The study population was divided into two groups depending on the NLR and PLR values of the individual. For the NLR &lt; 4.21 group, the AVF patency rates were 90.7%, 85.3%, and 84% at the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-up, respectively, and 77.5%, 65.8%, and 39.3% at 3, 6, and 12 months for the NLR &gt; 4.21 group, respectively (p &lt; 0.0001). For the PLR &lt; 208.8 group, the patency rates were 85.6%, 76.7%, and 67.7% at the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-up. For the PLR &gt; 208.28 group, the patency rates were 80.8%, 71.2%, and 50.7% for the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-up, respectively (p = 0.014). The multivariate analysis highlighted that diabetes mellitus, the neutrophil count, the lymphocyte count, and the NLR were independent risk factors for an AVF failure. In our experience, the NLR and PLR are useful markers for the stratification of vascular access failure in hemodialysis patients. The inexpensive nature and ready availability of the values of these biomarkers are two points of strength for everyday clinical practice

Constraints on the interaction and self-interaction of dark energy from cosmic microwave background

It is well-known that even high quality cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations are not sufficient on their own to determine the equation of state of the dark energy, due to the effect of the so-called geometric degeneracy at large multipoles and the cosmic variance at small ones. In contrast, we find that CMB data can put tight constraints on another fundamental property of the dark energy, namely its coupling to dark matter. We compare the current high-resolution CMB data to models of dark energy characterized by an inverse power law or exponential potential and by the coupling to dark matter. We determine the curve of degeneracy between the dark energy equation of state and the dimensionless Hubble parameter h and show that even an independent perfect determination of h may be insufficient to distinguish dark energy from a pure cosmological constant with the current dataset. On the other hand, we find that the interaction with dark matter is firmly bounded, regardless of the potential. In terms of the dimensionless ratio \beta of the dark energy interaction to gravity, we find \beta <0.16 (95% c.l.). This implies that the effective equation of state between equivalence and tracking has been close to the pure matter equation of state within 1% and that scalar gravity is at least 40 times weaker than tensor gravity. Further, we show that an experiment limited by cosmic variance only, like the Planck mission, can put an upper bound \beta < 0.05 (95% c.l.). This shows that CMB observations have a strong potentiality not only as a test of cosmic kinematics but also as a gravitational probe.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

Spatial and Temporal Dust Source Variability in Northern China Identified Using Advanced Remote Sensing Analysis

The aim of this research is to provide a detailed characterization of spatial patterns and temporal trends in the regional and local dust source areas within the desert of the Alashan Prefecture (Inner Mongolia, China). This problem was approached through multi-scale remote sensing analysis of vegetation changes. The primary requirements for this regional analysis are high spatial and spectral resolution data, accurate spectral calibration and good temporal resolution with a suitable temporal baseline. Landsat analysis and field validation along with the low spatial resolution classifications from MODIS and AVHRR are combined to provide a reliable characterization of the different potential dust-producing sources. The representation of intra-annual and inter-annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trend to assess land cover discrimination for mapping potential dust source using MODIS and AVHRR at larger scale is enhanced by Landsat Spectral Mixing Analysis (SMA). The combined methodology is to determine the extent to which Landsat can distinguish important soils types in order to better understand how soil reflectance behaves at seasonal and inter-annual timescales. As a final result mapping soil surface properties using SMA is representative of responses of different land and soil cover previously identified by NDVI trend. The results could be used in dust emission models even if they are not reflecting aggregate formation, soil stability or particle coatings showing to be critical for accurately represent dust source over different regional and local emitting areas

Learning and teaching about seasonal climate forecasts: a Mediterranean educational experience toward operational climate services

During the World Climate Conference-3, Capacity Development has been acknowledged as a transversal component underpinning all the other Pillars of the Global Framework for Climate Services. Within the Mediterranean basin, the interest of climate services based on seasonal climate forecasts is rising because they provide an opportunity for developing a proactive approach towards water management. In 2014, the Regional Training Center (RTC) in Italy, in agreement with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and member countries of Region I and VI, identified seasonal climate forecasts as a strategic subject of capacity development for the Mediterranean Region. Following design-based research methods, this paper presents the evolution of the training approaches adopted, from classroom lessons to a blend of practical and theoretical classroom and distance learning. This evolution, as well as the rising satisfaction of trainees' expectations encouraged WMO and the RTC to widen the spectrum of beneficiaries and to make the resulting course materials available for other regions and RTCs as a course package. The course package provides essential guidelines to facilitate adoption and adaptation of the course by different institutions and instructors, including those in other WMO Regions, based on regional or institutional learning needs and standards, while also serving the needs of individual learners.</p

Activation of Muscarinic M1 Acetylcholine Receptors Induces Long-Term Potentiation in the Hippocampus

Muscarinic M1 acetylcholine receptors (M1Rs) are highly expressed in the hippocampus, and their inhibition or ablation disrupts the encoding of spatial memory. It has been hypothesized that the principal mechanism by which M1Rs influence spatial memory is by the regulation of hippocampal synaptic plasticity. Here, we use a combination of recently developed, well characterized, selective M1R agonists and M1R knock-out mice to define the roles of M1Rs in the regulation of hippocampal neuronal and synaptic function. We confirm that M1R activation increases input resistance and depolarizes hippocampal CA1 pyramidal neurons and show that this profoundly increases excitatory postsynaptic potential-spike coupling. Consistent with a critical role for M1Rs in synaptic plasticity, we now show that M1R activation produces a robust potentiation of glutamatergic synaptic transmission onto CA1 pyramidal neurons that has all the hallmarks of long-term potentiation (LTP): The potentiation requires NMDA receptor activity and bi-directionally occludes with synaptically induced LTP. Thus, we describe synergistic mechanisms by which acetylcholine acting through M1Rs excites CA1 pyramidal neurons and induces LTP, to profoundly increase activation of CA1 pyramidal neurons. These features are predicted to make a major contribution to the pro-cognitive effects of cholinergic transmission in rodents and humans