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Not AvailableFlue cued Virginia (FCV) tobacco is an important commercial crop grown under rainfed conditions (>70% area) in Southern Transitional Zone (STZ) of Karnataka and is typically characterized by drysub humid to semi-arid climate. Being a rainfed production system, the sustainable leaf productivity and cured leaf quality / chemistry is largely influenced by climate changes and prevailing weather situations during the crop growth period. Even though Meteorological Standard Week 26th was found to be a dry spell week indicating that the short term drought can occur during the active growth stage of the crop, the fluctuations or the coefficient of variations in rainfall (RF) intensity and rainy days of July month are very high enough (46.3 and 39.8%, respectively) to cause serious losses in productivity and leaf quality. Regression models based on RF data of 34 years (1981-2014) indicated that productivity followed sigmoid/ bell shaped curve with the July RF. Nicotine content in cured leaf found to be negatively correlated with increase in quantum of July RF, but on the other hand reducing sugars found to increase with increase in July RF. Leaf chlorides showed declining trend with increased rainfall. The study suggested that the reliable forecast of July month rainfall situation becomes very much relevant in determining not only yield estimates/ quality assessment, but also serves for planning possible climate mitigation/crop management strategies for maintaining better productivity and quality leaf required for sustaining the export potential and farm income in this rainfed agro-climatic zone.Not Availabl