Ammonia Concentrations Over Europe – Application of the WRF-Chem Model Supported With Dynamic Emission

The study focuses on the application of a static and dynamic ammonia emission based on a Europe-wide default setting into the Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) and the influence on the simulated ammonia concentrations and the overall model performance. The WRF-Chem model was run twice for the entire Europe at a spatial resolution of 36 x 36 km for the year 2012. In the first simulation we used a static emission approach (the “BASE” simulation), whereas in the second simulation, dynamic ammonia emissions were used (the “DYNAMIC” simulation). Both simulations underestimate measured concentrations of NH3 for all seasons, have similar NMGE (about 0.7 μg m-3) and modelled hourly ammonia peaks are shifted towards the afternoon hours if compared with measurements. However, for all temporal resolutions, normalised mean gross error in winter and summer is lower for DYNAMIC than for BASE. The DYNAMIC simulation also generally gives worse performance in spring for each temporal resolution. For further improvement of the modelled ammonia concentrations with WRF-Chem we suggest to use a nested approach with higher spatial resolution, which will lead to better separation of the ammonia source regions from surrounding areas, and take into account national practice and regulations in the emission model, eventually only in the nested model domain

Understanding Emissions of Ammonia from Buildings and Application of Fertilizers: An Example from Poland

A Europe-wide dynamic ammonia (NH3) emissions model has been applied for one of the large agricultural countries in Europe, and its sensitivity on the distribution of emissions among different agricultural functions was analyzed by comparing with observed ammonia concentrations and by implementing all scenarios in a CTM model. The results suggest that the dynamic emission model is most sensitive to emission from animal manure, in particular how this is connected to national regulations. In contrast, the model is most robust with respect to emission from buildings and storage. To do this, we obtained activity information on agricultural operations at the sub-national level for Poland, information about infrastructure on storages and current regulations on manure practice from Polish authorities. The information was implemented in the existing emission model and was connected directly with the NWP calculations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW). The model was used to calculate four emission scenarios with high spatial (5 km x 5 km) and temporal resolution (3h) for the entire year 2010. In the four scenarios, we have compared the European-wide default model settings against: 1) a scenario that focuses on emission from agricultural buildings, 2) the existing emission method used in WRF-Chem in Poland, and 3) a scenario that takes into account Polish infrastructure and agricultural regulations. The ammonia emission was implemented into the chemical transport model FRAME and modelled ammonia concentrations was compared with measurements. The results suggest that the default setting in the dynamic model is an improvement compared to a non-dynamical emission profile. The results also show that further improvements can be obtained on the national scale by replacing the default information on manure practice with information that is connected with local practice and national regulations. Implementing a dynamical approach for simulation of ammonia emission is a viable objective for all CTM models that continue to use fixed emission profiles. Such models should handle ammonia emissions in a similar way to other climate dependent emissions (e.g. Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds). Our results, compared with previous results from the DEHM and the GEOS-CHEM models, suggest that implementing dynamical approaches improves simulations in general even in areas with limited information about location of the agricultural fields, livestock and agricultural production methods such as Poland

Spatial, Temporal and Vertical Distribution of Ammonia Concentrations Over Europe – Comparing a Static and Dynamic Approach With WRF-Chem

The study focuses on the application of a dynamic ammonia emission into the Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) and the influence on the simulated ammonia concentrations and the overall model performance. We have focused on agricultural ammonia sources and have analysed both hourly and daily patterns of ammonia emissions and concentrations at measurement sites located in agricultural areas or influenced by this activity. For selected episodes, we have also investigated the 3-D patterns of the ammonia concentrations in the atmosphere. The application of the dynamic ammonia emission into the WRF-Chem model (the “DYNAMIC” simulation) results in an improvement of the modelled daily ammonia concentrations in comparison to a static approach (the “BASE” simulation), which is currently widely used in chemical transport models. In the case of hourly resolution, we have observed an improvement for the DYNAMIC approach for the winter and autumn seasons, but for the entire year the modelled hourly ammonia peaks are shifted toward the afternoon hours if compared with measurements. This study indicates that the current description of the diurnal cycle of the ammonia concentration from fields is not accurate and more research is needed in order to improve the processes that describe the emission from fertilised fields. The results suggest that the governing processes in relation to the diurnal cycle are the atmospheric mixing and the emission strength. Therefore,an improved description of the diurnal profile of ammonia concentrations within atmospheric models requires a better description of the planetary boundary layer height and a stronger daily pattern of ammonia emission, e.g. through increased evaporation or increased fluxes from the surface

Application of WRF-Chem to Forecasting PM10 Concentration over Poland

The meteorological and chemical transport model WRF-Chem was implemented to forecast PM10 concentrations over Poland. WRF-Chem version 3.5 was configured with three one way nested domains using the GFS meteorological data and the TNO MACC II emissions. Forecasts, with 48h lead time, were run for a winter and summer period 2014. WRF-Chem in general captures the variability in observed PM10 concentrations, but underestimates some peak concentrations during winter-time. The peaks coincide with either stable atmospheric condition during nighttime in the lower part of the planetary boundary layer or on days with very low surface temperatures. Such episodes lead to increased combustion in residential heating, where hard coal is the main fuel in Poland. This suggests that a key to improvement in the model performance for the peak concentrations is to focus on the simulation of PBL processes and the distribution of emissions with high resolution in WRF-Chem

Aerosol-Radiation Feedback and PM10 Air Concentrations Over Poland

We have implemented the WRF-Chem model version 3.5 over Poland to quantify the direct and indirect feedback effects of aerosols on simulated meteorology and aerosol concentrations. Observations were compared with results from three simulations at high spatial resolutions of 5 × 5 km: (1) BASE—without any aerosol feedback effects; (2) DIR—with direct aerosol-radiative effects (3) INDIR—with direct and indirect aerosol-radiative effects. We study the overall effect during January 2011 as well as selected episodes of the highest differences in PM10 concentrations between the three simulations. For the DIR simulation, the decrease in monthly mean incoming solar radiation (SWDOWN) appears for the entire study area. It changes geographically, from about −8.0 to −2.0 W m−2, respectively for the southern and northern parts of the country. The highest changes do not correspond to the highest PM10 concentration. Due to the solar radiation changes, the surface mean monthly temperature (T2) decreases for 96 % of the area of Poland, but not more than 1.0 °C. Monthly mean PBLH changes by more than ±5 m for 53 % of the domain. Locally the differences in PBLH between the DIR and BASE are higher than ± 20 m. Due to the direct effect, for 84 % of the domain, the mean monthly PM10 concentrations increase by up to 1.9 µg m−3. For the INDIR simulation the spatial distribution of changes in incoming solar radiation as well as air temperature is similar to the DIR simulation. The decrease of SWDOWN is noticed for the entire domain and for 23 % of the domain is higher than −5.0 W m−2. The absolute differences of PBLH are slightly higher for INDIR than DIR but similarly distributed spatially. For daily episodes, the differences between the simulations are higher, both for meteorology and PM10 concentrations, and the pattern of changes is usually more complex. The results indicate the potential importance of the aerosol feedback effects on modelled meteorology and PM10 concentrations

Footprint Areas of Pollen From Alder (Alnus) and Birch (Betula) in the UK (Worcester) and Poland (Wrocław) During 2005–2014

In this study we analyzed daily pollen concentrations of Alnus spp. and Betula spp. from Worcester, UK and Wrocław, Poland. We analyzed seasonality, annual pollen index and footprint areas for the observed pollen concentrations by using the trajectory model hybrid single particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT). We examined 10 years of data during the period 2005–2014 and found substantial differences in the seasonality, pollen indices and footprint areas. For both genera, concentrations in Wrocław are in general much higher, the seasons are shorter and therefore more intense than in Worcester. The reasons appear to be related to the differences in overall climate between the two sites and more abundant sources in Poland than in England. The footprint areas suggest that the source of the pollen grains are mainly local trees but appear to be augmented by remote sources, in particular for Betula spp. but only to a small degree for Alnus spp. For Betula spp., both sites appear to get contributions from areas in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, while known Betula spp. rich regions in Russia, Belarus and Scandinavia had a very limited impact on the pollen concentrations in Worcester and Wrocław. Substantial and systematic variations in pollen indices are seen for Betula spp. in Wrocław with high values every second year while a similar pattern is not observed for Worcester. This pattern was not reproduced for Alnus spp

Application of WRF-Chem to Forecasting PM10 Concentration Over Poland

The meteorological and chemical transport model WRF-Chem was implemented to forecast PM10 concentrations over Poland. WRF-Chem version 3.5 was configured with three one-way nested domains using the GFS meteorological data and the TNO MACC II emissions. The 48 hour forecasts were run for each day of the winter and summer period of 2014 and there is only a small decrease in model performance for winter with respect to forecast lead time. The model in general captures the variability in observed PM10 concentrations for most of the stations. However, for some locations and specific episodes, the model performance is poor and the results cannot yet be used by official authorities. We argue that a higher resolution sector-based emission data will be helpful for this analysis in connection with a focus on planetary boundary layer processes in WRF-Chem and their impact on the initial distribution of emissions on both time and space

Application of WRF-Chem to Forecast PM10 Concentrations Over Poland

The meteorological and chemical transport model WRF-Chem has been implemented to forecast PM10 concentrations over Poland. WRF-Chem version 3.5 was configured with three one way nested domains and the simulations were driven by the GFS meteorological data and the TNO MACC II emissions. The Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM2) gas phase chemistry and the Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for Europe with Secondary Organic Aerosol Model (MADE/SORGAM) aerosol module were applied in WRF-Chem. Forecasts were run 48 hours ahead for each day during a winter period from the 1st January to 28th February 2014. We have found that the model for most stations captures the variability of observed PM10 concentrations, whereas the highest observed peaks are often underestimated. Several of the peaks coincide with either stable atmospheric condition during nighttime in the lower part of the planetary boundary layer or on days with very low surface temperatures. This suggests that a key to a good simulation of the peak concentrations is to focus on the simulation of PBL processes and the distribution of emissions with high resolution in WRF-Che

Quality of the Governing Temperature Variables in WRF in Relation to Simulation of Primary Biological Aerosols

We have evaluated three prognostic variables in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, mean daily temperature, daily maximum temperature, and daily minimum temperature using 9 months of model simulations at 36 and 12 km resolution, and compared the results with 1182 observational sites in north and central Europe. The quality of the results is then determined in the context of the governing variables used in crop science, forestry, and aerobiological models. We use the results to simulate the peak of the birch pollen season (aerobiology), growth of barley (crop science), and development of the invasive plant pathogen Hymenoscyphus pseudoalbidus (the cause of ash-dieback). The results show that the crop and aerobiological models are particularly sensitive to grid resolution and much higher quality is obtained from the 12 km simulations compared to 36 km. The results also show that the summer months have a bias, in particular for maximum and minimum temperatures, and that the low/high bias is clustered in two areas: continental and coastal influenced areas. It is suggested that the use of results from meteorological models as an input into biological models needs particular attention in the quality of the modelled surface data as well as the applied land surface modules

Are Estimates of Wind Characteristics Based on Measurements with Pitot Tubes and GNSS Receivers Mounted on Consumer-grade Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Applicable in Meteorological Studies?

The objective of this paper is to empirically show that estimates of wind speed and wind direction based on measurements carried out using the Pitot tubes and GNSS receivers, mounted on consumer-grade unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), may accurately approximate true wind parameters. The motivation for the study is that a growing number of commercial and scientific UAV operations may soon become a new source of data on wind speed and wind direction, with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. The feasibility study was carried out within an isolated mountain meadow of Polana Izerska located in the Izera Mountains (SW Poland) during an experiment which aimed to compare wind characteristics measured by several instruments: three UAVs (swinglet CAM, eBee, Maja) equipped with the Pitot tubes and GNSS receivers, wind speed and direction meters mounted at 2.5 m and 10 m (mast), conventional weather station and vertical sodar. The three UAVs performed seven missions along spiral-like trajectories, most reaching 130 m above take-off location. The estimates of wind speed and wind direction were found to agree between UAVs. The time series of wind speed measured at 10 m were extrapolated to flight altitudes recorded at a given time so that a comparison was made feasible. It was found that the wind speed estimates provided by the UAVs on a basis of the Pitot tube/GNSS data are in agreement with measurements carried out using dedicated meteorological instruments. The discrepancies were recorded in the first and last phases of UAV flights