Macedonian and Slovenian Trade after the Break-up of Former Yugoslavia: Focus on the European Union

An American economist presents a statistical analysis of Macedonian foreign trade patterns since the break-up of former Yugoslavia, in the context of a comparison with Slovenia. After examining the countries' trade performance and policy, Gini-Hirshmann indexes of concentration, Grubel-Lloyd indexes of intra-industry trade (IIT), and similarity indexes are presented, along with a description of the main exports from the two countries to the EU and an evaluation of the factor intensity thereof. The results show that Macedonia's trade in comparison with Slovenia's is more unbalanced and less EU-oriented; its exports are more labor-intensive and concentrated in low-wage sectors; the structure of its trade with the EU differs greatly from Slovenia's; and it engages in little intra-industry trade with the EU. Macedonian trade patterns are suggestive of those of a developing country, indeed of one falling further behind the leading transition countries

The European Union and the Rest of the World: Complements or Substitutes for Central and Eastern Europe?

This paper is a summary report on the seminar held in Budapest, Hungary on December 4-6, 1997 on the "The European Union and the Rest of the World: Complements or Substitutes for Central and Eastern Europe?" This report is structured as follows. The first section summarizes the most recent developments in the accession process in the individual candidate countries. The second is devoted to the tasks required by the adjustment to the EU's common external tariff and the process of common policy formation within the EU. The following section analyzes what will happen to the existing close bilateral relations after accession: both recent Austrian experiences and the expectations of candidate countries, such as Estonia and Bulgaria, are presented. The prospects for capital flows originating from outside EU are investigated in Section 4, from both the recipients' and external investors' points of view. The following section reports on the already existing and broadening opportunities for technological cooperation across EU borders, based on the example of the EUREKA program. One of the most sensitive issues of EU enlargement is agriculture. The Polish and Hungarian presentations on the subject discuss the challenges that these major agricultural producers face as they enter accession negotiations. Section 7 analyzes the core subject matter of the seminar in the broadest perspective: how does the coming accession fit into the overall process of regionalization and globalization in historical and economic perspective? The report ends with the summary statements at close of the workshop

The Time Pattern of Costs and Benefits of EU Accession

The paper summarizes the seminar meeting held at IIASA on December 5-7, 1998, on "The Time Pattern of Costs and Benefits of EU Accession." The underlying idea of the seminar was as follows. The CEECs aspiring to EU membership have already understood that opening their markets to the West and adjusting to the institutional framework, laws, and rules of the EU entails direct and indirect costs, generating considerable tension for the intitutions and individuals concerned. At the same time, these nations will certainly benefit from accession. East European experts and policy makers have not yet performed a systematic accounting of the costs and benefits to their countries before, during, after accession. Especially lacking is an appreciation for the "time pattern"of emergence of these costs and benefits. The lack of such an analysis is a drawback for the accession negotiations and for public policy. Understanding the temporal and regional patterns of costs and benefits is crucial to planning annual macroeconomic programs, as well as to projecting such indicators as private consumption, investment, and trade and current account balances. An appreciation of these patterns is also crucial to mobilize public support for the accession at the appropriate time. The costs of converging to the EU are not evenly spread across the societies in transition countries and emerge at various stages of the accession process. Moreover, many of the changes related to accession have diverse economic, social, administrative, and political effects. Most of the analyses of the costs and benefits of accession for the EU-member states and CEECs focus on a single aspect or on a particular time period and calculate the costs and benefits for the incumbents only. The discussion at the seminar encompassed the costs and benefits in terms that went beyond the strictly economic, and focused primarily on the CEEC side. The period in question under consideration is characterized by the following milestones: the start of the transition, the signing of the Europe Agreements, the start of accession negotiations, accession to the EU, and accession the European and Monetary Union (EMU). The mix of participants at the seminar was ideal for informed scientific and policy discussion: researchers and government experts gathered from nine candidate countries (all but Latvia, for which the invited expert withdrew at the last moment) plus Macedonia, as well as from European and U.S. universities and the European Commission. A relatively large number of Austrian experts also contributed to the success of the meeting. Of the six sessions at the workshop, the most heated debate was on the costs and benefits associated with agriculture, environment, EMU, and future of EU transfers. The report is structured as follows. The first section summarizes the most recent developments in the accession process in the individual candidate countries and Macedonia. The second is devoted to the experience of past enlargements and to general issues surrounding measuring the costs and benefits of the coming enlargements. The following section deals with EU's environmental requirements, especially the "hard" costs and "soft" benefits that various studies associate with them. The fourth section analyses expected developments in the monetary and exchange rate policies of the candidate countries, with the emphasis on the recent turbulence on the world financial markets and the issues raised by the necessity of fulfilling the conditions associated with EU membership. The next section deals with the expected size, role, and possible use of EU transfers in the periods preceding and following accession. The sixth section is devoted to agriculture, one of the most complicated issues that arises in the accession process. The final section summarizes the results of the synthetic approaches that employ computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to estimate the costs and benefits of enlargements

Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?

Kazakhstan possesses extensive natural resources reserves that are expected to yield significant export revenues. Since Kazakhstan’s attaining independence in 1991, the composition of exports has changed in favor of energy-related sectors. In the context of such evidence and considerable expected future revenues, many researchers have pointed to the Dutch Disease question. This paper examines whether Kazakhstan is vulnerable to this condition. Using an extended version of the Balassa-Samuelson model including a terms-of-trade effect, we find evidence that changes in the terms of trade had a significant effect on the real exchange rate after 1996, providing evidence of the Dutch Disease. --Dutch Disease,transition,oil,terms of trade,Kazakhstan

Macedonian and Slovenian trade: Contrasting patterns and focus on the European Union

An American economist presents a statistical analysis of Macedonian foreign trade patterns since the break-up of former Yugoslavia, in the context of a comparison with Slovenia. After examining the countries' overall trade performance and policy, Gini-Hirshmann indexes of concentration, Grubel-Lloyd indexes of intraindustry trade, and similarity indexes are presented, and main exports from the two countries to the European Union are described. This provides a basis for assessing the progress of economic transition in the two countries, whether trade patterns are characteristic of developed or less-developed countries, and the possible extent of trade distortion prevailing during the Yugoslav period