Fertility Ideals of Women and Men Across the Life Course

This paper explores the stability of women’s and men’s fertility preferences across the life course. The data come from the first six waves of the German Family Panel (pairfam), which span the period from 2008/2009 until 2013/2014. In our analysis, fertility preferences are measured using the following question: “Under ideal circumstances, how many children would you like to have?” The average number cited by both women and men is 2.2. With rising age, this number declines modestly. Relying on fixed-effects modelling, we find that neither partnership status nor economic circumstances have any causal effect on fertility preferences. However, as the number of children a respondent has increases, his or her ideal number of children is also likely to grow. Thus, fertility ideals appear to undergo changes over time, and are adjusted in line with the size of the respondent’s own family

Religious socialisation and fertility: transition to third birth in the Netherlands

Although previous studies have demonstrated that religious people in Europe have larger families, the role played by religious socialisation in the context of contemporary fertility behaviour has not yet been analysed in detail. This contribution specifically looks at the interrelation between religious socialisation and current religiosity and their impact on the transition to the third child for Dutch women. It is based on data of the first wave of the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (2002–2004) and uses event history analysis. The transitions to first, second and third birth are modelled jointly with a control for unobserved heterogeneity. The findings provide evidence for an impact of women’s current church attendance as well as religious socialisation measured by their fathers’ religious affiliation, when they were teenagers. A religious family background remains influential even when a woman has stopped attending church. The effects of religious indicators strengthen over cohorts. Moreover, the combined religious make-up of the respondent’s parents also significantly determines the progression to the third child.S’il est bien établi que les croyants en Europe ont plus d’enfants que les autres, le rôle de la socialisation religieuse dans le contexte de la fécondité contemporaine n’a pas encore été analysé à ce jour. Cette étude s’intéresse au lien entre la socialisation religieuse et la religiosité actuelle, et à leur impact sur la probabilité d’agrandissement de deux à trois enfants de la descendance des femmes néerlandaises. Les données exploitées sont celles de la première vague du Panel Néerlandais d’Etude de la Parenté (the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study, 2002–2004). A l’aide des techniques de l’analyse des biographies, les probabilités d’agrandissement de rang 1, rang 2 et rang 3 ont été modélisées de façon conjointe, en contrôlant l’hétérogénéité non observée. Les résultats mettent en évidence l’impact de la fréquentation actuelle de l’église par les femmes et de leur socialisation religieuse, mesurée par l’appartenance religieuse de leur père quand elles étaient adolescentes. Il apparaît que la religiosité du contexte familial exerce une influence, même quand la femme ne fréquente plus l’église, et que les effets des indicateurs de pratique religieuse se renforcent d’une génération à l’autre. Enfin, l’appartenance religieuse conjointe des parents de la femme détermine significativement la probabilité d’avoir un troisième enfant

The contraceptive confidence idea: an empirical investigation

In this paper the hypothesis that 'contraceptive confidence' promotes accelerated childbearing is presented and examined. Methodological difficulties in investigating the question empirically are discussed. Because of the absence of a direct measure, a proxy indicator of 'contraceptive confidence' is used in multivariate analyses of maternity history data. These give results consistent with the existence of a contraceptive confidence effect. Evidence is also presented (a) of shorter second birth intervals among women who were in higher status occupations before marriage and (b) of an inverse association between educational qualifications and length of intervals after the first. These findings are construed as supporting the basic thesis regarding contraceptive confidence. The contraceptive confidence idea is discussed in the context of related work on an acceleration effect associated with women's labour-force participation. Several difficulties in interpreting the findings are considered and some implications are discussed

Reweighting the general household survey 1979-2007.

We have calculated two new sets of weights applicable to the General Household Survey (GHS) from 1979 to 2007. One of these is for use with any general analysis of GHS topics and the second is designed for analyses of data collected in the Family Information section. The methods used follow closely those employed by ONS from 1996 onwards. The performance of the weights is assessed in estimating the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 1971-2007, an aggregate measure of fertility for which reliable figures are available at national level from vital registration statistics. Our weights improve the GHS estimates, reducing bias both in the TFR and in age-specific fertility rates