Institutions, infrastructure, and trade

We examine the influence of infrastructure, institutional quality, colonial and geographic context, and trade preferences on the pattern of bilateral trade. We are interested in threshold effects, and so emphasize those cases where bilateral country pairs do not actually trade. We depart from the institutions and infrastructure literature in this respect, using selection-based gravity modeling of trade flows. We also depart from this literature by mixing principal components (to condense our institutional and infrastructure measures) with a focus on deviations in the resulting indexes from expected values for given income cohorts to control for multicollinearity. We work with a panel of 284,049 bilateral trade flows from 1988 to 2002. Matching bilateral trade and tariff data and controlling for tariff preferences, level of development, and standard distance measures, we find that infrastructure, and institutional quality, are significant determinants not only of export levels, but also of the likelihood exports will take place at all. Our results support the notion that export performance, and the propensity to take part in the trading system at all, depends on institutional quality and access to well developed transport and communications infrastructure. Indeed, this dependence is far more important, empirically, than variations in tariffs in explaining sample variations in North-South trade

Brain drain with FDI gain? Factor mobility between Eastern and Western Europe

A growing strand of literature highlights that skilled migration may favour growth-enhancing technology transfer, trade and foreign direct investments between the source and the host economies of migrants (network effects). We explore a specific channel through which the possible "diaspora externality" associated with the current emigration of both poorly and highly educated workers may occur: the removal of informational, cultural and reputational barriers that could prevent firms of high-income countries from investing in the low-income immigrants' economies of origin. By means of a straightforward gravity specification, we take a fragmentation and multinational production model in the fashion of Venables (1999) to the data. The focus is on the mobility of capital and workers between the advanced European Union countries (EU15) and New Member States (NMS) in the 1994-2005 period. The evidence points to a significant correlation between the volume of EU15's activities in NMS and the total stock of NMS' own-migrants in the EU15 economies. Furthermore, the larger is the share of skilled workers in the total emigration stock the larger is the inward FDI flow

Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization

Because of concern that OECD tariff reductions will translate into worsening export performance for the least developed countries, trade preferences have proven a stumbling block to developing country support for multilateral liberalization. We examine the actual scope for preference erosion, including an econometric assessment of the actual utilization, and also the scope for erosion estimated by modeling full elimination of OECD tariffs and hence full MFN liberalization-based preference erosion. Preferences are underutilized due to administrative burden—estimated to be at least 4 percent on average—reducing the magnitude of erosion costs significantly. For those products where preferences are used (are of value), the primary negative impact follows from erosion of EU preferences. This suggests the erosion problem is primarily bilateral rather than a WTO-based concern.preference erosion, GSP, WTO, Doha Round, trade and development

Preference Utilisation and Tariff Reduction in EU Imports from ACP Countries

Despite the long relationship between the EU and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries aimed at encouraging their exports while stimulating growth and investment, the ACP states still face difficulties in integrating into the world economy. This paper examines the non-least developed ACP countries preferential trade with the EU. The objective is to explain the determinants of preferential exports of ACP countries towards the EU and to assess the impact of preferences on trade volumes. We also investigate the existence of a threshold in the offered duty reduction under which traders have no incentives to ask for preferences

The Economic Effects of a Russia-EU FTA

The paper examines the effects of Russia joining the WTO taking into account energy sector reform and the impact of a future Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the enlarged EU and Russia. The paper uses Computable General Equilibrium Modelling techniques for quantifying the different possible scenarios. The scenarios include a standard assessment of the removal of tariff barriers including agriculture, services and removal of non-tariffbarriers. The results suggest that a potential FTA would be beneficial for Russia only if it would incorporate not only reduction in industrial tariffs but also in agriculture and liberalisation in services

Clothes without an emperor: analysis of the preferential tariffs in ASEAN

This paper examines the current state of intra-ASEAN trade under the preferential regime of the AFTA. It partly addresses some data problems and employs a gravity model to arrive at alternative ways of gauging the importance of preferences in the absence of data on the actual utilisation of AFTA preferential tariffs. Our results confirm the wide-spread notion that the AFTA preferential scheme is of very little consequence to intra-regional trade. However, in that limited range of products where AFTA might have an influence, preferences seem to matter only when the differential margin between the MFN and preferential tariff rates reaches a critical amount, allowing regional exporters to cover the costs of requesting preferences

Lerner meets gravity

We examine the linkages between import policy and export performance, extending classic macroeconomic trade e ffects to more recent concepts from the modern literature on gravity models. We also examine these e ffects empirically with a panel of global and bilateral trade spanning 15 years. Our emphasis on the role of import policy (i.e. tari ffs) of exporters as an explanation of trade volumes contrasts with the recent emphasis on importer policy in the gravity literature. It also reinforces the growing body of evidence on the importance of economic environmental (policy and infrastructure) conditions in explaining relative export performance

Pursuing environmental and social objectives through trade agreements

Using a large dataset covering more than 180 countries and spanning several decades, we employ a SDID estimator to identify the extent to which trade agreements incorporating non-trade provisions (labor standards, environmental protection and civil and political rights) are associated with improvements in corresponding non-trade performance indicators. We distinguish between binding (enforceable) and non-binding provisions in trade agreements, and also control for the allocation of official development assistance targeting these three non-trade policy areas. Overall, the results suggest that efforts made to date to include non-trade provisions in trade agreements have not resulted in consistent desired (better) non-trade outcomes

Fish community composition and habitat use in the Eg-Uur River System,

Abstract Mongolian rivers and their fi sh communities have suffered severe impacts from anthropogenic activities. However, the remoteness of some systems has allowed for the conservation of unique fi sh faunas, including robust populations of Hucho taimen. Conservation of H. taimen requires understanding the composition and ecology of other fi shes in the community. Using multiple sampling techniques, direct observation, and existing literature, we assessed the composition, relative abundance, and ecological attributes of fi shes in the Eg-Uur watershed (Selenge basin). We collected 6 of 12 species known in the watershed. Phoxinus cf. phoxinus and Lota lota were the most and least abundant species, respectively. We failed to detect H. taimen, indicating low abundance or unknown habitat requirements for juveniles. We compared the effectiveness of different sampling techniques (with electrofi shing producing the highest species richness), constructed length-weight relationships for four species, and identifi ed ecological attributes (i.e., trophic guild, preferred habitat) for resident fi shes