The fluctuations, under time reversal, of the natural time and the entropy distinguish similar looking electric signals of different dynamics

We show that the scale dependence of the fluctuations of the natural time itself under time reversal provides a useful tool for the discrimination of seismic electric signals (critical dynamics) from noises emitted from man made sources as well as for the determination of the scaling exponent. We present recent data of electric signals detected at the Earth's surface, which confirm that the value of the entropy in natural time as well as its value under time reversal are smaller than that of the entropy of a "uniform" distribution.Comment: 29 pages including 24 figure and 1 Tabl

Identifying the occurrence time of an impending mainshock: A very recent case

The procedure by means of which the occurrence time of an impending mainshock can be identified by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area subsequent to the recording of a precursory Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activity is reviewed. Here, we report the application of this procedure to an Mw5.4 mainshock that occurred in Greece on 17 November 2014 and was strongly felt in Athens. This mainshock (which is pretty rare since it is the strongest in that area for more than half a century) was preceded by an SES activity recorded on 27 July 2014 and the results of the natural time analysis reveal that the system approached the critical point (mainshock occurrence) early in the morning on 15 November 2014. Similar SES activities that have been recently recorded are also presented. Furthermore, in a Note we discuss the case of the Mw5.3 earthquake that was also strongly felt in Athens on 19 July 2019.Comment: An early version of this paper appeared in Earthq. Sci. 28 (2015) 215-222 [doi:10.1007/s11589-015-0122-3], whereas in the present version new data collected during 2019 and 2020 have been added. 8 pages, 11 figure

Comment on "Effects of Thickness on the Spin Susceptibility of the Two Dimensional Electron Gas"

A comment on a recent paper (PRL {\bf 94}, 226405 (2005)) by S. De Palo, M. Botti, S. Moroni, and Gaetano Senatore

Natural entropy fluctuations discriminate similar looking electric signals emitted from systems of different dynamics

Complexity measures are introduced, that quantify the change of the natural entropy fluctuations at different length scales in time-series emitted from systems operating far from equilibrium. They identify impending sudden cardiac death (SD) by analyzing fifteen minutes electrocardiograms, and comparing to those of truly healthy humans (H). These measures seem to be complementary to the ones suggested recently [Phys. Rev. E {\bf 70}, 011106 (2004)] and altogether enable the classification of individuals into three categories: H, heart disease patients and SD. All the SD individuals, who exhibit critical dynamics, result in a common behavior.Comment: Published in Physical Review

Entropy of seismic electric signals: Analysis in natural time under time-reversal

Electric signals have been recently recorded at the Earth's surface with amplitudes appreciably larger than those hitherto reported. Their entropy in natural time is smaller than that, $S_u$, of a ``uniform'' distribution. The same holds for their entropy upon time-reversal. This behavior, as supported by numerical simulations in fBm time series and in an on-off intermittency model, stems from infinitely ranged long range temporal correlations and hence these signals are probably Seismic Electric Signals (critical dynamics). The entropy fluctuations are found to increase upon approaching bursting, which reminds the behavior identifying sudden cardiac death individuals when analysing their electrocardiograms.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, copy of the revised version submitted to Physical Review Letters on June 29,200

Basic principles for evaluating an earthquake prediction method

A three year continuous sample of earthquake predictions based on the observation of Seismic Electric Signals in Greece was published by Varotsos and Lazaridou [1991]. Four independent studies analyzed this sample and concluded that the success rate of the predictions is far beyond chance. On the other hand, Mulargia and Gasperini [1992] (hereafter cited as MG) claim that these predictions can be ascribed to chance. In the present paper we examine the origin of this disagreement. Several serious problems in the study of MG are pointed out, such as: 1. The probability of a prediction's being successful by chance should be approximately considered as the product of three probabilities, P-T, P-E and P-M, i.e., the probabilities with respect to time, epicenter and magnitude. In spite of their major importance, P-E and P-M were ignored by MG. The incorporation of P-E decreases the probability for chancy success by more than a factor of 10 (when P-E is taken into account it can be shown that the VAN predictions cannot be ascribed to chance). 2. MG grossly overestimated the number of earthquakes that should have been predicted, by taking different thresholds for earthquakes and predictions. With such an overestimation, MG's procedure can ''reject'' even an ideally perfect earthquake prediction method. 3. MG's procedure did not take into account that the predictions were based on three different types of electrical precursors with different lead-times. 4. MG applied a Poisson distribution to the time series of earthquakes but included a large number of aftershocks. 5. The backward time correlation between predictions and earthquakes claimed by MG is due to misinterpretation of the text of some predictions and an incorrect use of aftershocks. Although even the discussion of the first problem alone is enough to invalidate the claims of MG, we also discuss the other four problems because MG violated some basic principles even in the time domain alone. The results derived in this paper are of general use when examining whether a correlation between earthquakes and various geophysical phenomena is beyond chance or not