Hispanics and the Current Economic Downturn: Will the Receding Tide Sink Hispanics?

Explores the progress made by Hispanics during the economic boom of the 1990s, and examines the potential impact of the 2001/2002 economic slowdown on Hispanic workers and families

Vulnerabilities and surveillance of the international financial system.

The International Banking and Finance Institute (IBFI) organised its fifth international monetary seminar from 12 to 16 May 2003 on the topic “Vulnerabilities and surveillance of the international financial system”. This seminar brought together 43 participants from the central banks of industrialised and emerging countries as well as from international institutions (BIS, IMF, OECD, FSF, etc.), and around 30 speakers from various central banks, international bodies and the private sector. The first two days were devoted to: – providing an overview of developments in the international environment, markets and the financial system including the insurance sector, which gave rise to a speech by a director at the French Insurance Association; – analysing the vulnerabilities of the banking and financial system, in particular those stemming from changes in market techniques and market participants’ behaviour; – analysing accounting and prudential issues arising from the implementation of the future interna tional solvency ratio and the introduction of the new international financial reporting standards; – examining current ideas on resolving international financial crises, with particular focus on the approach proposed by the Banque de France with a view to fostering a “Code of conduct” for the voluntary renegotiation between sovereign issuers and creditors, as well as the IMF’s point of view on the restructuring of sovereign debt, put forward by Anne Krueger, deputy managing director of the IMF, in a video-conference transmitted live from Washington 1. In the two days that followed, there ensued lively debate between the participants, who formed two workshops: one on the interactions between financial markets and monetary policy, and the other on the provisions of the New Basel Accord and the financial reporting standards and their impact on economic cycles 2. The first workshop was mainly organised around three topics: – central bank communication, in the areas of monetary policy, foreign exchange and financial stability; – methods of identifying vulnerabilities in financial systems; – links between price stability and financial stability. The second workshop focused on three issues: – the new financial reporting standards put forward by the International Accounting Standard Board and their implications for credit institutions, in particular with respect to the principle of prudence and the need to avoid introducing artificial volatility into accounts; – the future solvency ratio applicable to credit institutions as defined in the New Basel Capital Accord; – the convergence or divergence between financial reporting and prudential standards. Although focusing on seemingly different issues, the rich and fruitful discussions that were held throughout the workshops revealed a broad community of views on financial stability issues underlying the two topics examined. Moreover, a dinner-discussion was organised by Pr Avinash Persaud, holder of the Chair in Commerce at Gresham College, on the risks of financial instability arising from the standardisation of asset allocation approaches, herd behaviours and the blind use of portfolio risk management techniques. Discussions ended with a round table debate, introduced by Governor Trichet and chaired by Mr Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn, Director General – Directorate General Economics and International Relations. Five speakers discussed the topic of “transparency and market discipline”: – Mr Flemming Larsen, Director of the IMF’s European Offices; – Mr William Witherell, Director of Financial, Fiscal and Enterprise Affairs, OECD; – Mr Michel Prada, former chairman of the COB and of the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) 3; – Mr Jan Brockmeijer, Deputy Executive Director for Supervision, Nederlandsche Bank; – and Mr Svein Andresen, Secretary General of the FSF, who summed up the discussions. Mr Flemming Larsen discussed the issue of transparency in emerging economies in the light of the international financial crises that marked the past decade. In this respect, he stressed the benefits attached to the adoption and the effective implementation by these economies of the international codes and standards promoted by the IMF and the World Bank. These codes and standards cover twelve key areas that would benefit from the application of the principles and standards developed by international bodies in the area of economic governance and financial regulation, and transparency and corporate governance. The IMF reports on the implementation of these codes and standards provide a good means to enhance transparency, market discipline and multilateral surveillance, while helping national authorities to identify priority actions for improving the resilience of their economy. Mr William Witherell discussed the role of corporate governance rules and financial transparency as a means to guaranteeing the integrity and smooth functioning of financial markets. The challenge that now lies ahead for regulators and government authorities is to develop a legal and regulatory framework that fully integrates these requirements in order to rebuild investor confidence and to ensure the effective use of market discipline. As regards the scope of these requirements, he recalled the set of general principles defined in this context by the OECD. These principles are now embodied in the international standards, whose application is recommended by the FSF for industrialised and emerging economies alike. He also stressed the great importance of the rules of governance and internal control in financial institutions given their role in allocating resources, their responsibilities to investors, and their particular exposure to the risks of conflicts of interest owing to the nature of their activities. Mr Michel Prada 4 first recalled the main areas in which regulators were currently working to restore market foundations and improve the functioning of the market: introducing international financial reporting standards, implementing corporate governance principles, organising and supervising auditors, and lastly defining professional standards for the players in charge of interpreting financial information and transmitting it to investors, analysts and rating agencies. He then discussed the challenges arising from the globalisation and increasingly broad scope of markets, underscoring the implications of the risk transfer techniques currently used by intermediaries and the factors underlying the recent excess volatility of asset prices. These developments call for, above and beyond the close co-ordination between the prudential regulation of intermediaries and market regulation, the stepping up of international cooperation between regulators and a better understanding of market mechanisms in order to counter factors of financial instability. Lastly, Mr Jan Brockmeijer discussed Pillar III (market discipline) in the framework of the new capital adequacy regime for banks defined by the Basel Committee. Going hand in hand with the other two Pillars of the New Basel Capital Accord, Pillar III provides for a number of disclosure requirements that enable market participants and prudential authorities to obtain all the necessary parameters to assess risk profiles and the creditworthiness of credit institutions.

Cohort fertility patterns and breast cancer mortality among U.S. women, 1948-2003

Epidemiological research has shown that women who have early and numerous births have reduced risks of being diagnosed with breast cancer. We use U.S. Vital Statistics and Census data and age-period-cohort models to examine whether cohort fertility patterns are associated with breast cancer mortality rates among women aged 40 and older in 1948-2003. Cohorts marked by higher proportions childless at ages 15-24 and lower cumulative second birth rates at ages 15-29 have higher rates of breast cancer mortality. This is the first demonstration that cohort fertility patterns have left a clear imprint on trends in U.S. breast cancer mortality rates.age-period-cohort, breast cancer mortality, cohort fertility

The Prevalence and Effects of Occupational Licensing

This study provides the first nation-wide analysis of the labor market implications of occupational licensing for the U.S. labor market, using data from a specially designed Gallup survey. We find that in 2006, 29 percent of the workforce was required to hold an occupational license from a government agency, which is a higher percentage than that found in studies that rely on state-level occupational licensing data. Workers who have higher levels of education are more likely to work in jobs that require a license. Union workers and government employees are more likely to have a license requirement than are nonunion or private sector employees. Our multivariate estimates suggest that licensing has about the same quantitative impact on wages as do unions -- that is about 15 percent, but unlike unions which reduce variance in wages, licensing does not significantly reduce wage dispersion for individuals in licensed jobs.occupational licensing; regulation; wages

Properties of quasi two-dimensional condensates in highly anisotropic traps

We theoretically investigate some of the observable properties of quasi two-dimensional condensates. Using a variational model based on a Gaussian-parabolic trial wavefunction we calculate chemical potential, condensate size in time-of-flight, release energy and collective excitation spectrum for varying trap geometries and atom numbers and find good agreement with recent published experimental results.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

The Prevalence and Effects of Occupational Licensing

This study provides the first nation-wide analysis of the labor market implications of occupational licensing for the U.S. labor market, using data from a specially designed Gallup survey. We find that in 2006, 29 percent of the workforce was required to hold an occupational license from a government agency, which is a higher percentage than that found in studies that rely on state-level occupational licensing data. Workers who have higher levels of education are more likely to work in jobs that require a license. Union workers and government employees are more likely to have a license requirement than are nonunion or private sector employees. Our multivariate estimates suggest that licensing has about the same quantitative impact on wages as do unions – that is about 15 percent, but unlike unions which reduce variance in wages, licensing does not significantly reduce wage dispersion for individuals in licensed jobs.occupational licensing, regulation, wages

Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement

A reduction in trade barriers generally will affect the environment by expanding the scale of economic activity, by altering the composition of economic activity, and by bringing about a change in the techniques of production. We present empirical evidence to assess the relative magnitudes of these three effects as they apply to further trade liberalization in Mexico. In Section 1. we use comparable measures of three air pollutants in a cross-section of urban areas located in 42 countries to study the relationship between air quality and economic growth. We find for two pollutants (sulfur dioxide and "smoke") that concentrations increase with per capita GDP at low levels of national income, but decrease with GD? growth at higher levels of income. Section 2 studies the determinants of the industry pattern of U.S. imports from Mexico and of value added by Mexico's maquiladora sector. We investigate whether the size of pollution abatement costs in the U.S. industry influences the pattern of international trade and investment. Finally, in Section 3, we use the results from a computable general equilibrium model to study the likely compositional effect of a NAFTA on pollution in Mexico.