675 research outputs found
Systemic Risk in a Unifying Framework for Cascading Processes on Networks
We introduce a general framework for models of cascade and contagion
processes on networks, to identify their commonalities and differences. In
particular, models of social and financial cascades, as well as the fiber
bundle model, the voter model, and models of epidemic spreading are recovered
as special cases. To unify their description, we define the net fragility of a
node, which is the difference between its fragility and the threshold that
determines its failure. Nodes fail if their net fragility grows above zero and
their failure increases the fragility of neighbouring nodes, thus possibly
triggering a cascade. In this framework, we identify three classes depending on
the way the fragility of a node is increased by the failure of a neighbour. At
the microscopic level, we illustrate with specific examples how the failure
spreading pattern varies with the node triggering the cascade, depending on its
position in the network and its degree. At the macroscopic level, systemic risk
is measured as the final fraction of failed nodes, , and for each of
the three classes we derive a recursive equation to compute its value. The
phase diagram of as a function of the initial conditions, thus allows
for a prediction of the systemic risk as well as a comparison of the three
different model classes. We could identify which model class lead to a
first-order phase transition in systemic risk, i.e. situations where small
changes in the initial conditions may lead to a global failure. Eventually, we
generalize our framework to encompass stochastic contagion models. This
indicates the potential for further generalizations.Comment: 43 pages, 16 multipart figure
The Integration of Credit Default Swap Markets in the Pre and Post-Subprime Crisis in Common Stochastic Trends
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Booms and busts in commodity markets: bubbles or fundamentals?
This paper considers whether there were periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in commodity prices over a 40-year period from the late 1960s. We apply a switching regression approach to a broad range of commodities using two different measures of fundamental values—estimated from convenience yields and from a set of macroeconomic factors believed to affect commodity demand. We find reliable evidence for bubbles only among crude oil and feeder cattle, showing the popular belief that the extreme price movements observed in commodity markets were caused by pure speculation to be unsustainabl
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Explaining co-movements between equity and CDS bid-ask spreads
In this paper I show that the co-movements between bid-ask spreads of equities and credit default swaps vary over time and increase over crisis periods. The co-movements are strongly related to systematic risk factors and to the theoretical debt-to-equity hedge ratio. I document that hedging and asymmetric information, besides higher funding costs and market volatility risk, are driving factors of the commonality and are significantly priced in CDS bid-ask spreads
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