Evaluating model outputs using integrated global speleothem records of climate change since the last glacial

Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data–model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model's ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on δ18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices

Fertility Regulation

In the past two centuries the proportion of couples using some form of conscious pregnancy-prevention has risen from close to zero to about two-thirds. In European populations this radical change in behaviour occurred largely between 1870 and 1930 without the benefit of highly effective methods. In Asia, Africa and Latin America, the change took place after 1950 since when the global fertility rate has halved from 5.0 births to 2.5 births per woman. In this chapter we describe the controversies surrounding the idea of birth control and the role of early pioneers such as Margaret Sanger; the advances in contraceptive and abortion technologies; the ways in which family planning has been promoted by many governments, particularly in Asia; trends in use of specific methods; the problems of discontinuation of use; and the incidence of unintended pregnancies and abortions

Meat and Nicotinamide:A Causal Role in Human Evolution, History, and Demographics

Hunting for meat was a critical step in all animal and human evolution. A key brain-trophic element in meat is vitamin B 3 /nicotinamide. The supply of meat and nicotinamide steadily increased from the Cambrian origin of animal predators ratcheting ever larger brains. This culminated in the 3-million-year evolution of Homo sapiens and our overall demographic success. We view human evolution, recent history, and agricultural and demographic transitions in the light of meat and nicotinamide intake. A biochemical and immunological switch is highlighted that affects fertility in the ‘de novo’ tryptophan-to-kynurenine-nicotinamide ‘immune tolerance’ pathway. Longevity relates to nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide consumer pathways. High meat intake correlates with moderate fertility, high intelligence, good health, and longevity with consequent population stability, whereas low meat/high cereal intake (short of starvation) correlates with high fertility, disease, and population booms and busts. Too high a meat intake and fertility falls below replacement levels. Reducing variances in meat consumption might help stabilise population growth and improve human capital

Reduced model control of a plasma deposition process

This preliminary study, relating plasma stagnation pressure to the current level, provided an initial step toward the development of feedback control of the plasma deposition process. Data consisting of an input voltage and output stagnation pressure were collected about a nominal operating point. Data Dependent Systems (DDS) methodology was utilized to obtain a highorder adequate model and then to reduce it to a first-order model suitable for feedback control. The power supply inductance was credited as the source of the single root characterizing the system. A minimum mean squared control strategy was employed to develop a control equation for the reduced system model. The simulation of the reduced order controller compared favorably with that of an optimal controller, based on the full model. © 1998 ASME

Crystallization pathways, fabrics and the capture of climate proxies in speleothems: Examples from the tropics

The quality of climate proxy data from speleothem archives depends to varying degrees on crystallization processes, which result in diverse fabrics. Here, we document shifts in calcite growth mechanisms, from ion-by-ion to nanoparticle/nanocrystal attachment, in stalagmites from the tropical island of Atiu (South Pacific). Changes in solution stoichiometry and organic matter content result in the development of two columnar fabrics that are common elsewhere in settings characterized by seasonal contrast. A porous columnar fabric, characterized by intracrystalline micro and nanoporosity grows via a non-classical pathway through amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) nanoparticles (∼2–4 nm in diameter) and calcite nanocrystal attachment. Despite subsequent transformation of nanoparticles/crystals into a large calcite crystal, the porous columnar fabric appears to preserve a δ18O signal that faithfully reflects that of the parent fluid via quasi-equilibrium fractionation. Furthermore, the porous fabric shows random and fuzzy lateral distributions of Sr, another hydrological proxy, yet this element's incorporation follows equilibrium partitioning. The chemical properties of compact columnar fabrics, which appear to grow by classical ion-by-ion attachment, may not directly reflect those of the original depositional environment because of degassing, the presence of growth inhibitors (such as Na) and very early diagenetic modifications. Columnar porous calcite fabrics that formed through non-classical pathways in other settings may faithfully record the original properties of the parent drip water, whereas compact fabrics that formed through classical pathways elsewhere may not. It is concluded that the study of fabrics at the nano-scale is a necessary complement to speleothem research to identify the influence of crystallization pathways on the accuracy of proxy data

Specific and Fuzzy Interactions Cooperate in Modulating Protein Half-Life

Protein degradation is critical for maintaining cellular homeostasis. The 20S proteasome is selective for unfolded, extended polypeptide chains without ubiquitin tags. Sequestration of such segments by protein partners, however, may provide a regulatory mechanism. Here we used the AP-1 complex to study how c-Fos turnover is controlled by interactions with c-Jun. We show that heterodimerization with c-Jun increases c-Fos half-life. Mutations affecting specific contact sites (L165V, L172V) or charge separation (E175D, E189D, K190R) with c-Jun both modulate c-Fos turnover, proportionally to their impact on binding affinity. The fuzzy tail beyond the structured b-HLH/ZIP domain (~ 165 residues) also contributes to the stabilization of the AP-1 complex, removal of which decreases c-Fos half-life. Thus, protein turnover by 20S proteasome is fine-tuned by both specific and fuzzy interactions, consistently with the previously proposed \u201cnanny\u201d model