Causal Effects of Monetary Shocks: Semiparametric Conditional Independence Tests with a Multinomial Propensity Score

Macroeconomists have long been concerned with the causal effects of monetary policy. When the identification of causal effects is based on a selection-on-observables assumption, non-causality amounts to the conditional independence of outcomes and policy changes. This paper develops a semiparametric test for conditional independence in time series models linking a multinomial policy variable with unobserved potential outcomes. Our approach to conditional independence testing is motivated by earlier parametric tests, as in Romer and Romer (1989, 1994, 2004). The procedure developed here is semiparametric in the sense that we model the process determining the distribution of treatment – the policy propensity score – but leave the model for outcomes unspecified. A conceptual innovation is that we adapt the cross-sectional potential outcomes framework to a time series setting. This leads to a generalized definition of Sims (1980) causality. A technical contribution is the development of root-T consistent distribution-free inference methods for full conditional independence testing, appropriate for dependent data and allowing for first-step estimation of the propensity score.monetary policy, propensity score, multinomial treatments, causality

Semiparametric Causality Tests Using the Policy Propensity Score

Time series data are widely used to explore causal relationships, typically in a regression framework with lagged dependent variables. Regression-based causality tests rely on an array of functional form and distributional assumptions for valid causal inference. This paper develops a semi-parametric test for causality in models linking a binary treatment or policy variable with unobserved potential outcomes. The procedure is semiparametric in the sense that we model the process determining treatment -- the policy propensity score -- but leave the model for outcomes unspecified. This general approach is motivated by the notion that we typically have better prior information about the policy determination process than about the macro-economy. A conceptual innovation is that we adapt the cross-sectional potential outcomes framework to a time series setting. This leads to a generalized definition of Sims (1980) causality. We also develop a test for full conditional independence, in contrast with the usual focus on mean independence. Our approach is illustrated using data from the Romer and Romer (1989) study of the relationship between the Federal reserve's monetary policy and output.

Charter Schools and the Road to College Readiness: The Effects on College Preparation, Attendance and Choice

The analysis here focuses on Boston's charter high schools. For the purpose of this report, an analysis of high schools is both a necessity and a virtue. It is necessary to study high schools because most students applying to charters in earlier grades are not yet old enough to generate data on postsecondary outcomes. Charter high schools are also of substantial policy interest: a growing body of research argues that high school may be too late for cost-effective human capital interventions. Indeed, impact analyses of interventions for urban youth have mostly generated disappointing results.This report is interested in ascertaining whether charter schools, which in Massachusetts are largely budget-neutral, can have a substantial impact on the life course of affected students. The set of schools studied here comes from an earlier investigation of the effects of charter attendance in Boston on test scores.The high schools from the earlier study, which enroll the bulk of charter high school students in Boston, generate statistically and socially significant gains on state assessments in the 10th grade. This report questions whether these gains are sustained

Causal effects of monetary shocks: semiparametric conditional independence tests with a multinomial propensity score

Macroeconomists have long been concerned with the causal effects of monetary policy. When the identification of causal effects is based on a selection-on-observables assumption, non-causality amounts to the conditional independence of outcomes and policy changes. This paper develops a semiparametric test for conditional independence in time series models linking a multinomial policy variable with unobserved potential outcomes. Our approach to conditional independence testing is motivated by earlier parametric tests, as in Romer and Romer (1989, 1994, 2004). The procedure developed here is semiparametric in the sense that we model the process determining the distribution of treatment - the policy propensity score - but leave the model for outcomes unspecified. A conceptual innovation is that we adapt the cross-sectional potential outcomes framework to a time series setting. This leads to a generalized definition of Sims (1980) causality. A technical contribution is the development of root-T consistent distribution-free inference methods for full conditional independence testing, appropriate for dependent data and allowing for first-step estimation of the propensity score

What a difference a term makes:the effect of educational attainment on marital outcomes in the UK

Abstract In the past, students in England and Wales born within the first 5 monthsof the academic year could leave school one term earlier than those born later inthe year. Focusing on women, those who were required to stay on an extra termmore frequently hold some academic qualification. Using having been required tostay on as an exogenous factor affecting academic attainment, we find that holding alow-level academic qualification has no effect on the probability of being currentlymarried for women aged 25 or above, but increases the probability of the husbandholding some academic qualification and being economically active.33 Halama

'Making it count': incentives, student effort and performance

This paper examines how incentives to participate in online assessments (quizzes) affect students’ effort and performance. Our identification strategy exploits within-student weekly variation in incentives to attempt online quizzes. We find tournament incentives and participation incentives to be ineffective in increasing quiz participation. In contrast, making the quiz counts towards the final grade substantially increases participation. We find no evidence of displacement of effort between weeks. Using a natural experiment which provides variation in assessment weighting of the quizzes between two cohorts, we find that affected students obtain better exam grades. We estimate the return to 10% assessment weighting to be around 0.27 of a standard deviation in the in-term exam grade. We find no evidence that assessment weighting has unintended consequences, i.e., that increased quiz effort: displaces effort over the year; reduces other forms of effort; or reduces (effort and thus) performance in other courses. Finally, assessment weighting induced effort increases most for students at and below median ability, resulting in a reduction of the grade gap by 17%

Who Benefits from KIPP?

The nation's largest charter management organization is the Knowledge is Power Program (KIPP). KIPP schools are emblematic of the No Excuses approach to public education, a highly standardized and widely replicated charter model that features a long school day, an extended school year, selective teacher hiring, strict behavior norms, and emphasizes traditional reading and math skills. No Excuses charter schools are sometimes said to target relatively motivated high achievers at the expense of students who are more difficult to teach, including limited English proficiency (LEP) and special education (SPED) students, as well as students with low baseline achievement levels. We use applicant lotteries to evaluate the impact of KIPP Academy Lynn, a KIPP school in Lynn, Massachusetts that typifies the KIPP approach. Our analysis focuses on special needs students that may be underserved. The results show average achievement gains of 0.36 standard deviations in math and 0.12 standard deviations in reading for each year spent at KIPP Lynn, with the largest gains coming from the LEP, SPED, and low-achievement groups. Average reading gains are driven almost entirely by SPED and LEP students, whose reading scores rise by roughly 0.35 standard deviations for each year spent at KIPP Lynn

Charter School Demand and Effectiveness: A Boston Update

This report begins with a focus on applications to charter schools. While much attention has been focused on charter school waitlists, waitlist data can be misleading. It includes duplicates, but also includes waitlists that have been rolled over from year to year and might be an unrealistic measure of demand. Instead, the authors investigate three factors related to demand: the yearly percentage of each middle school and high school class that applies to a charter in our lottery sample; the percentage of applicants that receive an offer from a charter school; and where students ultimately attend. This report also examines the demographic makeup of charter school enrollees and compare it to BPS. The next section follows the path of charter school students and report their performance in charters using the evidence from the lotteries. The lottery sample now covers many more charter schools. The 2009 report included findings from eight schools. This report includes MCAS results through 2012 from 12 schools and many more cohorts from the original schools, with additional newly opened schools contributing to the demand analysis. In addition to updating the test score results from the 2009 report, this report breaks down the test score effects by student subgroups. Trends are investigated over time in charter performance and by school groups. Finally, this report gives results using statistical controls, which allow the authros to estimate effects for attending charter schools that do not have sufficient lottery records for the more rigorous lottery based analysis. The lottery sample now contains almost all Boston charter schools with entry grades at middle or high school

Stand and Deliver: Effects of Boston’s Charter High Schools on College Preparation, Entry, and Choice

We use admissions lotteries to estimate effects of attendance at Boston’s charter high schools on college preparation and enrollment. Charter schools increase pass rates on Massachusetts’ high-stakes exit exam, with large effects on the likelihood of qualifying for a state-sponsored scholarship. Charter attendance also boosts SAT scores sharply and increases the likelihood of taking an Advanced Placement (AP) exam, the number of AP exams taken, and AP scores. Charters induce a substantial shift from 2- to 4-year institutions, though the effect on overall college enrollment is modest. Charter effects on college-related outcomes are strongly correlated with charter effects on earlier tests.Institute of Education Sciences (U.S.) (Grant 08120031)NewSchools Venture Fun

Effect of Election Day Vote Centers on Voter Participation

In this article we study the effects of Election Day vote centers on voter turnout. Specifically we examine Texas and Colorado’s experience with alternative arrangements for the number and location of Election Day voting places and its impact on voter turnout in the 2006 and 2008 elections. We test our hypotheses at both the aggregate (i.e., county) and individual levels. We find evidence that vote centers increase voter turnout in presidential and midterm elections, and particularly among infrequent voters in midterms