Analysis of the Healthcare MERS-CoV Outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 Using a SEIR Ward Transmission Model

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an emerging zoonotic coronavirus that has a tendency to cause significant healthcare outbreaks among patients with serious comorbidities. We analyzed hospital data from the MERS-CoV outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) ward transmission model. The SEIR compartmental model considers several areas within the hospital where transmission occurred. We use a system of ordinary differential equations that incorporates the following units: emergency department (ED), out-patient clinic, intensive care unit, and hospital wards, where each area has its own carrying capacity and distinguishes the transmission by three individuals in the hospital: patients, health care workers (HCW), or mobile health care workers. The emergency department, as parameterized has a large influence over the epidemic size for both patients and health care workers. Trend of the basic reproduction number (R0), which reached a maximum of 1.39 at the peak of the epidemic and declined to 0.92 towards the end, shows that until added hospital controls are introduced, the outbreak would continue with sustained transmission between wards. Transmission rates where highest in the ED, and mobile HCWs were responsible for large part of the outbreak

A population-based cohort study on sun habits and endometrial cancer

Background:No large cohort study has examined the risk of endometrial cancer in relation to sun exposure.Methods:A population-based cohort study of 29 508 women who answered a questionnaire in 1990-92, of whom 24 098 responded to a follow-up enquiry in 2000-02. They were followed for an average of 15.5 years.Results:Among the 17 822 postmenopausal women included, 166 cases of endometrial cancer were diagnosed. We used a multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusting for age and other selected demographic variables to determine the risk of endometrial cancer. Women using sun beds >3 times per year reduced their hazard risk (HR) by 40% (0.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4-0.9) or by 50% when adjusting for body mass index or physical activity (HR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.9), and those women who were sunbathing during summer reduced their risk by 20% (HR 0.8 95% CI 0.5-1.5) compared with women who did not expose themselves to the sun or to artificial sun (i.e., sun beds).Conclusion:Exposure to artificial sun by the use of sun beds >3 times per year was associated with a 40% reduction in the risk of endometrial cancer, probably by improving the vitamin D levels during winter.British Journal of Cancer advance online publication, 23 June 2009; doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6605149 www.bjcancer.com

Key characteristics of 86 agents known to cause cancer in humans

Since the inception of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in the early 1970s, the IARC Monographs Programme has evaluated more than 1000 agents with respect to carcinogenic hazard; of these, up to and including Volume 119 of the IARC Monographs, 120 agents met the criteria for classification as carcinogenic to humans (Group 1). Volume 100 of the IARC Monographs provided a review and update of Group 1 carcinogens. These agents were divided into six broad categories: (I) pharmaceuticals; (II) biological agents; (III) arsenic, metals, fibers, and dusts; (IV) radiation; (V) personal habits and indoor combustions; and (VI) chemical agents and related occupations. Data on biological mechanisms of action (MOA) were extracted from the Monographs to assemble a database on the basis of ten key characteristics attributed to human carcinogens. After some grouping of similar agents, the characteristic profiles were examined for 86 Group 1 agents for which mechanistic information was available in the IARC Monographs up to and including Volume 106, based upon data derived from human in vivo, human in vitro, animal in vivo, and animal in vitro studies. The most prevalent key characteristic was "is genotoxic", followed by "alters cell proliferation, cell death, or nutrient supply" and "induces oxidative stress". Most agents exhibited several of the ten key characteristics, with an average of four characteristics per agent, a finding consistent with the notion that cancer development in humans involves multiple pathways. Information on the key characteristics was often available from multiple sources, with many agents demonstrating concordance between human and animal sources, particularly with respect to genotoxicity. Although a detailed comparison of the characteristics of different types of agents was not attempted here, the overall characteristic profiles for pharmaceutical agents and for chemical agents and related occupations appeared similar. Further in-depth analyses of this rich database of characteristics of human carcinogens are expected to provide additional insights into the MOA of human cancer development