Bayesian Inference for Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified by Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity

In this study, Bayesian inference is developed for structural vector autoregressive models in which the structural parameters are identified via Markov-switching heteroskedasticity. In such a model, restrictions that are just-identifying in the homoskedastic case, become over-identifying and can be tested. A set of parametric restrictions is derived under which the structural matrix is globally or partially identified and a Savage-Dickey density ratio is used to assess the validity of the identification conditions. The latter is facilitated by analytical derivations that make the computations fast and numerical standard errors small. As an empirical example, monetary models are compared using heteroskedasticity as an additional device for identification. The empirical results support models with money in the interest rate reaction function.Comment: Keywords: Identification Through Heteroskedasticity, Bayesian Hypotheses Assessment, Markov-switching Models, Mixture Models, Regime Chang

Simultaneous endovascular repair of an iatrogenic carotid-jugular fistula and a large iliocaval fistula presenting with multiorgan failure: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Iliocaval fistulas can complicate an iliac artery aneurysm. The clinical presentation is classically a triad of hypotension, a pulsatile mass and heart failure. In this instance, following presentation with multiorgan failure, management included the immediate use of an endovascular stent graft on discovery of the fistula.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 62-year-old Caucasian man presented to our tertiary hospital for management of iatrogenic trauma due to the insertion of a central venous line into his right common carotid artery, causing transient ischemic attack. Our patient presented to a peripheral hospital with fever, nausea, vomiting, acute renal failure, acute hepatic dysfunction and congestive heart failure. A provisional diagnosis of sepsis of unknown origin was made. There was a 6.5 cm×6.5 cm right iliac artery aneurysm present on a non-contrast computed tomography scan. An unexpected intra-operative diagnosis of an iliocaval fistula was made following the successful angiographic removal of the central line to his right common carotid artery. Closure of the iliocaval fistula and repair of the iliac aneurysm using a three-piece endovascular aortic stent graft was then undertaken as part of the same procedure. This was an unexpected presentation of an iliocaval fistula.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our case demonstrates that endovascular repair of a large iliac artery aneurysm associated with a caval fistula is safe and effective and can be performed at the time of the diagnostic angiography. The presentation of an iliocaval fistula in this case was unusual which made the diagnosis difficult and unexpected at the time of surgery. The benefit of immediate repair, despite hemodynamic instability during anesthesia, is clear. Our patient had two coronary angiograms through his right femoral artery decades ago. Unusual iatrogenic causes of iliocaval fistulas secondary to previous coronary angiograms with wire and/or catheter manipulation should be considered in patients such as ours.</p

Identifying Reduced-Form Relations with Panel Data

The literature that tests for U-shaped relationships using panel data, such as those between pollution and income or inequality and growth, reports widely divergent (parametric and non-parametric) empirical findings. We explain why lack of identification lies at the root of these differences. To deal with this lack of identification, we propose an identification strategy that explicitly distinguishes between what can be identified on the basis of the data and what is a consequence of subjective choices due to a lack of identification. We apply our methodology to the pollution-income relationship of both CO2- and SO2-emissions. Interestingly, our approach yields estimates of both income (scale) and time (composition and/or technology) effects for these reduced-form relationships that are insensitive to the required subjective choices and consistent with theoretical predictions