Impact of the Spruce Budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) on the Ottawa and Hiawatha National Forests, 1978-1980

The Michigan Impact Plot System was established during 1978 and 1979 to obtain a data base for quantifying the impact of the spruce budworm in the Ottawa and Hiawatha National Forests. The formulae used to estimate the mean, total, and associated standard errors of the various parameters at the national forest and forest district levels are presented. We present the 1978, 1979, and 1980 impact data for the following parameters; percent mortality, total dead volume. dead volume per ha, live volume per ha, defoliation ranking, frequency and extent of top-kill, and incidence of spruce budworm feeding on saplings and regenera- tion. Statistics from an annual inventory of 108 composite ground sampling units (CGSU) in 1978, and 136 CGSU\u27s in 1979 and 1980 provide a more precise estimate ofthe impact of the spruce budworm in Michigan\u27s Upper Peninsula than ha~ been available to date

Public health aspects of Tropical Storm Agnes in Virginia\u27s portion of Chesapeake Bay and its Tributaries

All Virginia waters within Chesapeake Bay were closed for the taking of shellfish for direct consumption on 23 June 1972. This initial closing was in anticipation of high microorganism levels accompanying flood waters moving downstream. Various areas beginning with the lower portion of Chesapeake Bay were reopened beginning )n 20 July 1972. By 5 October 1972 all areas closed as a result )f Tropical Storm Agnes were reopened. No increased incidents of infectious diseases caused by waterborne microorganisms were noted in Virginia which could be attributed to Tropical Storm Agnes.https://scholarworks.wm.edu/vimsbooks/1079/thumbnail.jp

Transport Model Simulations of Projectile Fragmentation Reactions at 140 MeV/nucleon

The collisions in four different reaction systems using $^{40,48}$Ca and $^{58,64}$Ni isotope beams and a Be target have been simulated using the Heavy Ion Phase Space Exploration and the Antisymmetrized Molecular Dynamics models. The present study mainly focuses on the model predictions for the excitation energies of the hot fragments and the cross sections of the final fragments produced in these reactions. The effects of various factors influencing the final fragment cross sections, such as the choice of the statistical decay code and its parameters have been explored. The predicted fragment cross sections are compared to the projectile fragmentation cross sections measured with the A1900 mass separator. At $E/A=140$ MeV, reaction dynamics can significantly modify the detection efficiencies for the fragments and make them different from the efficiencies applied to the measured data reported in the previous work. The effects of efficiency corrections on the validation of event generator codes are discussed in the context of the two models.Comment: 28 pages, 13 figure

Normative Alethic Pluralism

Some philosophers have argued that truth is a norm of judgement and have provided a variety of formulations of this general thesis. In this paper, I shall side with these philosophers and assume that truth is a norm of judgement. What I am primarily interested in here are two core questions concerning the judgement-truth norm: (i) what are the normative relationships between truth and judgement? And (ii) do these relationships vary or are they constant? I argue for a pluralist picture—what I call Normative Alethic Pluralism (NAP)—according to which (i) there is more than one correct judgement-truth norm and (ii) the normative relationships between truth and judgement vary in relation to the subject matter of the judgement. By means of a comparative analysis of disagreement in three areas of the evaluative domain—refined aesthetics, basic taste and morality—I show that there is an important variability in the normative significance of disagreement—I call this the variability conjecture. By presenting a variation of Lynch’s scope problem for alethic monism, I argue that a monistic approach to the normative function of truth is unable to vindicate the conjecture. I then argue that normative alethic pluralism provides us with a promising model to account for it

The statistical mechanics of a polygenic characterunder stabilizing selection, mutation and drift

By exploiting an analogy between population genetics and statistical mechanics, we study the evolution of a polygenic trait under stabilizing selection, mutation, and genetic drift. This requires us to track only four macroscopic variables, instead of the distribution of all the allele frequencies that influence the trait. These macroscopic variables are the expectations of: the trait mean and its square, the genetic variance, and of a measure of heterozygosity, and are derived from a generating function that is in turn derived by maximizing an entropy measure. These four macroscopics are enough to accurately describe the dynamics of the trait mean and of its genetic variance (and in principle of any other quantity). Unlike previous approaches that were based on an infinite series of moments or cumulants, which had to be truncated arbitrarily, our calculations provide a well-defined approximation procedure. We apply the framework to abrupt and gradual changes in the optimum, as well as to changes in the strength of stabilizing selection. Our approximations are surprisingly accurate, even for systems with as few as 5 loci. We find that when the effects of drift are included, the expected genetic variance is hardly altered by directional selection, even though it fluctuates in any particular instance. We also find hysteresis, showing that even after averaging over the microscopic variables, the macroscopic trajectories retain a memory of the underlying genetic states.Comment: 35 pages, 8 figure

Preservation of information in a prebiotic package model

The coexistence between different informational molecules has been the preferred mode to circumvent the limitation posed by imperfect replication on the amount of information stored by each of these molecules. Here we reexamine a classic package model in which distinct information carriers or templates are forced to coexist within vesicles, which in turn can proliferate freely through binary division. The combined dynamics of vesicles and templates is described by a multitype branching process which allows us to write equations for the average number of the different types of vesicles as well as for their extinction probabilities. The threshold phenomenon associated to the extinction of the vesicle population is studied quantitatively using finite-size scaling techniques. We conclude that the resultant coexistence is too frail in the presence of parasites and so confinement of templates in vesicles without an explicit mechanism of cooperation does not resolve the information crisis of prebiotic evolution.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, accepted version, to be published in PR