An optimization model for strategic supply chain design under stochastic capacity disruptions

This Record of Study contains the details of an optimization model developed for Shell Oil Co. This model will be used during the strategic design process of a supply chain for a new technology commercialization. Unlike traditional supply chain deterministic optimization, this model incorporates different levels of uncertainty at suppliers’ nominal capacity. Because of the presence of uncertainty at the supply stage, the objective of this model is to define the best diversification and safety stock level allocated to each supplier, which minimize the total expected supply chain cost. We propose a Monte Carlo approach for scenario generation, a two-stage non-linear formulation and the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) procedure to solve the problem near optimality. We also propose a simple heuristic procedure to avoid the nonlinearity issue. The sampling and heuristic optimization procedures were implemented in a spreadsheet with a user’s interface. The main result of this development is the analysis of the impact of diversification in strategic sourcing decisions, in the presence of stochastic supply disruptions

An optimization model for strategic supply chain design under stochastic capacity disruptions

This Record of Study contains the details of an optimization model developed for Shell Oil Co. This model will be used during the strategic design process of a supply chain for a new technology commercialization. Unlike traditional supply chain deterministic optimization, this model incorporates different levels of uncertainty at suppliers’ nominal capacity. Because of the presence of uncertainty at the supply stage, the objective of this model is to define the best diversification and safety stock level allocated to each supplier, which minimize the total expected supply chain cost. We propose a Monte Carlo approach for scenario generation, a two-stage non-linear formulation and the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) procedure to solve the problem near optimality. We also propose a simple heuristic procedure to avoid the nonlinearity issue. The sampling and heuristic optimization procedures were implemented in a spreadsheet with a user’s interface. The main result of this development is the analysis of the impact of diversification in strategic sourcing decisions, in the presence of stochastic supply disruptions

Plan de negocio de servicio de mudanza integral en los distritos de la zona 7 de Lima Metropolitana

La presente tesis tiene como objetivo desarrollar un plan de negocio para la creaci?n de un servicio de mudanza integral orientado a los niveles socioecon?micos A y B en los distritos de San Borja, La Molina, Surco, Miraflores y San Isidro, teniendo como punto de partida la necesidad de especializaci?n, cuidado y seguridad que requiere este tipo de usuarios para hacer el traslado de sus bienes a un nuevo lugar de destino

Global Retinoblastoma Presentation and Analysis by National Income Level.

Importance: Early diagnosis of retinoblastoma, the most common intraocular cancer, can save both a child's life and vision. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that many children across the world are diagnosed late. To our knowledge, the clinical presentation of retinoblastoma has never been assessed on a global scale. Objectives: To report the retinoblastoma stage at diagnosis in patients across the world during a single year, to investigate associations between clinical variables and national income level, and to investigate risk factors for advanced disease at diagnosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 278 retinoblastoma treatment centers were recruited from June 2017 through December 2018 to participate in a cross-sectional analysis of treatment-naive patients with retinoblastoma who were diagnosed in 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age at presentation, proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma, and tumor stage and metastasis. Results: The cohort included 4351 new patients from 153 countries; the median age at diagnosis was 30.5 (interquartile range, 18.3-45.9) months, and 1976 patients (45.4%) were female. Most patients (n = 3685 [84.7%]) were from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Globally, the most common indication for referral was leukocoria (n = 2638 [62.8%]), followed by strabismus (n = 429 [10.2%]) and proptosis (n = 309 [7.4%]). Patients from high-income countries (HICs) were diagnosed at a median age of 14.1 months, with 656 of 666 (98.5%) patients having intraocular retinoblastoma and 2 (0.3%) having metastasis. Patients from low-income countries were diagnosed at a median age of 30.5 months, with 256 of 521 (49.1%) having extraocular retinoblastoma and 94 of 498 (18.9%) having metastasis. Lower national income level was associated with older presentation age, higher proportion of locally advanced disease and distant metastasis, and smaller proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma. Advanced disease at diagnosis was more common in LMICs even after adjusting for age (odds ratio for low-income countries vs upper-middle-income countries and HICs, 17.92 [95% CI, 12.94-24.80], and for lower-middle-income countries vs upper-middle-income countries and HICs, 5.74 [95% CI, 4.30-7.68]). Conclusions and Relevance: This study is estimated to have included more than half of all new retinoblastoma cases worldwide in 2017. Children from LMICs, where the main global retinoblastoma burden lies, presented at an older age with more advanced disease and demonstrated a smaller proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma, likely because many do not reach a childbearing age. Given that retinoblastoma is curable, these data are concerning and mandate intervention at national and international levels. Further studies are needed to investigate factors, other than age at presentation, that may be associated with advanced disease in LMICs

Actualidad y prospectiva de la investigación científica en el Centro Universitario Amecameca de la Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México

Con responsabilidad, se organizó un programa cuya finalidad fuera publicitar con transparencia dichos avances, a través de un esfuerzo de rendición de cuentas a la comunidad inmediata, la universitaria, y a la comunidad abierta, la sociedad que la principal referencia para tal efecto. El programa se concretiza a través del presente libro, conformado con una inspiración de investigación multidisciplinaria; sin embargo, para llegar a tal fin, el reto es realizar el proceso de búsqueda y generación de conocimiento transitando hacia la colaboración de los cuerpos académicos, que puedan construir nuevos conocimientos fortalecidos por la convergencia de diferentes campos del saber. En consecuencia, la primera etapa de esta estrategia es la publicidad de los trabajos investigativos ejercidos, para hacer un balance al día, pero también proyectar el futuro de cada campo y área del conocimiento. La organización explicativa está organizada por tres bloques representativos del quehacer en la generación de conocimiento del Centro Universitario, un primer bloque centra el interés en las humanidades, educación y sustentabilidad; el segundo bloque lo integra la reflexión científica sobre la construcción democrática, derechos humanos y equidad de género; en el tercer segmento se destina a la seguridad alimentaria, salud pública y sistemas agropecuarios. La actualidad de la investigación eleva la producción lograda y lo que en el momento se encuentra en construcción y los alcances que produce para la docencia, la investigación misma, y para la sociedad en general. La prospectiva es un área que todos los capítulos desarrollan con el propósito de delinear los alcances innovadores por andar en teoría, metodología e incluso en los saberes mismo

The global retinoblastoma outcome study : a prospective, cluster-based analysis of 4064 patients from 149 countries

DATA SHARING : The study data will become available online once all analyses are complete.BACKGROUND : Retinoblastoma is the most common intraocular cancer worldwide. There is some evidence to suggest that major differences exist in treatment outcomes for children with retinoblastoma from different regions, but these differences have not been assessed on a global scale. We aimed to report 3-year outcomes for children with retinoblastoma globally and to investigate factors associated with survival. METHODS : We did a prospective cluster-based analysis of treatment-naive patients with retinoblastoma who were diagnosed between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2017, then treated and followed up for 3 years. Patients were recruited from 260 specialised treatment centres worldwide. Data were obtained from participating centres on primary and additional treatments, duration of follow-up, metastasis, eye globe salvage, and survival outcome. We analysed time to death and time to enucleation with Cox regression models. FINDINGS : The cohort included 4064 children from 149 countries. The median age at diagnosis was 23·2 months (IQR 11·0–36·5). Extraocular tumour spread (cT4 of the cTNMH classification) at diagnosis was reported in five (0·8%) of 636 children from high-income countries, 55 (5·4%) of 1027 children from upper-middle-income countries, 342 (19·7%) of 1738 children from lower-middle-income countries, and 196 (42·9%) of 457 children from low-income countries. Enucleation surgery was available for all children and intravenous chemotherapy was available for 4014 (98·8%) of 4064 children. The 3-year survival rate was 99·5% (95% CI 98·8–100·0) for children from high-income countries, 91·2% (89·5–93·0) for children from upper-middle-income countries, 80·3% (78·3–82·3) for children from lower-middle-income countries, and 57·3% (52·1-63·0) for children from low-income countries. On analysis, independent factors for worse survival were residence in low-income countries compared to high-income countries (hazard ratio 16·67; 95% CI 4·76–50·00), cT4 advanced tumour compared to cT1 (8·98; 4·44–18·18), and older age at diagnosis in children up to 3 years (1·38 per year; 1·23–1·56). For children aged 3–7 years, the mortality risk decreased slightly (p=0·0104 for the change in slope). INTERPRETATION : This study, estimated to include approximately half of all new retinoblastoma cases worldwide in 2017, shows profound inequity in survival of children depending on the national income level of their country of residence. In high-income countries, death from retinoblastoma is rare, whereas in low-income countries estimated 3-year survival is just over 50%. Although essential treatments are available in nearly all countries, early diagnosis and treatment in low-income countries are key to improving survival outcomes.The Queen Elizabeth Diamond Jubilee Trust and the Wellcome Trust.https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/homeam2023Paediatrics and Child Healt

The Global Retinoblastoma Outcome Study: a prospective, cluster-based analysis of 4064 patients from 149 countries

Background Retinoblastoma is the most common intraocular cancer worldwide. There is some evidence to suggest that major differences exist in treatment outcomes for children with retinoblastoma from different regions, but these differences have not been assessed on a global scale. We aimed to report 3-year outcomes for children with retinoblastoma globally and to investigate factors associated with survival. Methods We did a prospective cluster-based analysis of treatment-naive patients with retinoblastoma who were diagnosed between Jan 1,2017, and Dec 31,2017, then treated and followed up for 3 years. Patients were recruited from 260 specialised treatment centres worldwide. Data were obtained from participating centres on primary and additional treatments, duration of follow-up, metastasis, eye globe salvage, and survival outcome. We analysed time to death and time to enucleation with Cox regression models. Findings The cohort included 4064 children from 149 countries. The median age at diagnosis was 23.2 months (IQR 11.0-36.5). Extraocular tumour spread (cT4 of the cTNMH classification) at diagnosis was reported in five (0.8%) of 636 children from high-income countries, 55 (5.4%) of 1027 children from upper-middle-income countries, 342 (19. 7%) of 1738 children from lower-middle-income countries, and 196 (42.9%) of 457 children from low-income countries. Enudeation surgery was available for all children and intravenous chemotherapy was available for 4014 (98.8%) of 4064 children. The 3-year survival rate was 99.5% (95% CI 98.8-100.0) for children from high-income countries, 91.2% (89.5-93.0) for children from upper-middle-income countries, 80.3% (78.3-82.3) for children from lower-middle-income countries, and 57.3% (524-63-0) for children from low-income countries. On analysis, independent factors for worse survival were residence in low-income countries compared to high-income countries (hazard ratio 16.67; 95% CI 4.76-50.00), cT4 advanced tumour compared to cT1 (8.98; 4.44-18.18), and older age at diagnosis in children up to 3 years (1.38 per year; 1.23-1.56). For children aged 3-7 years, the mortality risk decreased slightly (p=0.0104 for the change in slope). Interpretation This study, estimated to include approximately half of all new retinoblastoma cases worldwide in 2017, shows profound inequity in survival of children depending on the national income level of their country of residence. In high-income countries, death from retinoblastoma is rare, whereas in low-income countries estimated 3-year survival is just over 50%. Although essential treatments are available in nearly all countries, early diagnosis and treatment in low-income countries are key to improving survival outcomes. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Y

Global Retinoblastoma Presentation and Analysis by National Income Level

This cross-sectional analysis reports the retinoblastoma stage at diagnosis across the world during a single year, investigates associations between clinical variables and national income level, and investigates risk factors for advanced disease at diagnosis. Key PointsQuestionIs the income level of a country of residence associated with the clinical stage of presentation of patients with retinoblastoma? FindingsIn this cross-sectional analysis that included 4351 patients with newly diagnosed retinoblastoma, approximately half of all new retinoblastoma cases worldwide in 2017, 49.1\% of patients from low-income countries had extraocular tumor at time of diagnosis compared with 1.5\% of patients from high-income countries. MeaningThe clinical stage of presentation of retinoblastoma, which has a major influence on survival, significantly differs among patients from low-income and high-income countries, which may warrant intervention on national and international levels. ImportanceEarly diagnosis of retinoblastoma, the most common intraocular cancer, can save both a child's life and vision. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that many children across the world are diagnosed late. To our knowledge, the clinical presentation of retinoblastoma has never been assessed on a global scale. ObjectivesTo report the retinoblastoma stage at diagnosis in patients across the world during a single year, to investigate associations between clinical variables and national income level, and to investigate risk factors for advanced disease at diagnosis. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsA total of 278 retinoblastoma treatment centers were recruited from June 2017 through December 2018 to participate in a cross-sectional analysis of treatment-naive patients with retinoblastoma who were diagnosed in 2017. Main Outcomes and MeasuresAge at presentation, proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma, and tumor stage and metastasis. ResultsThe cohort included 4351 new patients from 153 countries; the median age at diagnosis was 30.5 (interquartile range, 18.3-45.9) months, and 1976 patients (45.4\%) were female. Most patients (n=3685 {[}84.7\%]) were from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Globally, the most common indication for referral was leukocoria (n=2638 {[}62.8\%]), followed by strabismus (n=429 {[}10.2\%]) and proptosis (n=309 {[}7.4\%]). Patients from high-income countries (HICs) were diagnosed at a median age of 14.1 months, with 656 of 666 (98.5\%) patients having intraocular retinoblastoma and 2 (0.3\%) having metastasis. Patients from low-income countries were diagnosed at a median age of 30.5 months, with 256 of 521 (49.1\%) having extraocular retinoblastoma and 94 of 498 (18.9\%) having metastasis. Lower national income level was associated with older presentation age, higher proportion of locally advanced disease and distant metastasis, and smaller proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma. Advanced disease at diagnosis was more common in LMICs even after adjusting for age (odds ratio for low-income countries vs upper-middle-income countries and HICs, 17.92 {[}95\% CI, 12.94-24.80], and for lower-middle-income countries vs upper-middle-income countries and HICs, 5.74 {[}95\% CI, 4.30-7.68]). Conclusions and RelevanceThis study is estimated to have included more than half of all new retinoblastoma cases worldwide in 2017. Children from LMICs, where the main global retinoblastoma burden lies, presented at an older age with more advanced disease and demonstrated a smaller proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma, likely because many do not reach a childbearing age. Given that retinoblastoma is curable, these data are concerning and mandate intervention at national and international levels. Further studies are needed to investigate factors, other than age at presentation, that may be associated with advanced disease in LMICs