The Changing Climate of the Arctic

The first and strongest signs of global-scale climate change exist in the high latitudes of the planet. Evidence is now accumulating that the Arctic is warming, and responses are being observed across physical, biological, and social systems. The impact of climate change on oceanographic, sea-ice, and atmospheric processes is demonstrated in observational studies that highlight changes in temperature and salinity, which influence global oceanic circulation, also known as thermohaline circulation, as well as a continued decline in sea-ice extent and thickness, which influences communication between oceanic and atmospheric processes. Perspectives from Inuvialuit community representatives who have witnessed the effects of climate change underline the rapidity with which such changes have occurred in the North. An analysis of potential future impacts of climate change on marine and terrestrial ecosystems underscores the need for the establishment of effective adaptation strategies in the Arctic. Initiatives that link scientific knowledge and research with traditional knowledge are recommended to aid Canada’s northern communities in developing such strategies.Les premiers signes et les signes les plus révélateurs attestant du changement climatique qui s’exerce à l’échelle planétaire se manifestent dans les hautes latitudes du globe. Il existe de plus en plus de preuves que l’Arctique se réchauffe, et diverses réactions s’observent tant au sein des systèmes physiques et biologiques que sociaux. Les incidences du changement climatique sur les processus océanographiques, la glace de mer et les processus atmosphériques s’avèrent évidentes dans le cadre d’études d’observation qui mettent l’accent sur les changements de température et de salinité, changements qui exercent une influence sur la circulation océanique mondiale – également appelée circulation thermohaline – ainsi que sur le déclin constant de l’étendue et de l’épaisseur de glace de mer, ce qui influence la communication entre les processus océaniques et les processus atmosphériques. Les perspectives de certains Inuvialuits qui ont été témoins des effets du changement climatique font mention de la rapidité avec laquelle ces changements se produisent dans le Nord. L’analyse des incidences éventuelles du changement climatique sur les écosystèmes marin et terrestre fait ressortir la nécessité de mettre en oeuvre des stratégies d’adaptation efficaces dans l’Arctique. Des initiatives reliant les recherches et connaissances scientifiques aux connaissances traditionnelles sont recommandées afin de venir en aide aux collectivités du Nord canadien pour que celles-ci puissent aboutir à de telles stratégies

Atmospheric Forcing Drives the Winter Sea Ice Thickness Asymmetry of Hudson Bay

Recently, we highlighted the presence of a strong west‐east asymmetry in sea ice thickness across Hudson Bay that is driven by cyclonic circulation. Building on this work, we use satellite altimetry and a unique set of in situ observations of ice thickness from three moored upward looking sonars to examine the role of atmospherically driven ice dynamics in producing contrasting regional ice thickness patterns. Ultimately, north‐northwesterly winds coupled with numerous reversals during winter 2016/2017 led to thicker ice in southern Hudson Bay, while enhanced west‐northwesterly winds during winter 2017/2018 led to thicker ice in eastern Hudson Bay that delayed breakup and onset of the summer shipping season to coastal communities. Extending the analysis over the 40‐year satellite observation period, we find that these two different patterns of atmospheric forcing alter the timing of breakup by 30 days in eastern Hudson Bay and offer some skill in seasonal predictions of breakup

Landfast Sea Ice Conditions in the Canadian Arctic: 1983 – 2009

We used Canadian Ice Service (CIS) digital charts from 1983 to 2009 to create a climatology of landfast sea ice in the Canadian Arctic. The climatology characterized the spatial distribution and variability of landfast ice through an average annual cycle and identified the mean onset date, breakup date, and duration of landfast ice. Trends in date and duration of onset and breakup were calculated over the 26-year period on the basis of CIS regions and sub-regions. In several sub-regions— particularly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago—we calculated significant trends towards later landfast ice onset or earlier breakup, or both. These later onset and earlier breakup dates translated into significant decreases in landfast ice duration for many areas of the Canadian Arctic. For communities located in the most affected areas, including Tuktoyaktuk, Kugluktuk, Cambridge Bay, Gjoa Haven, Arctic Bay, and Pond Inlet, this shorter landfast ice season is of significant social, cultural, and economic importance. Landfast sea-ice duration in the interior of the Northwest Passage has not undergone any statistically significant decrease over the time series.Nous nous sommes appuyés sur les cartes numériques du Service canadien des glaces (SCG) pour les années 1983 à 2009 afin de produire la climatologie de la glace de mer de l’Arctique canadien. La climatologie permet de caractériser la distribution spatiale et la variabilité de la glace de mer au moyen d’un cycle annuel moyen, et de déterminer la date moyenne du commencement, la date de la débâcle et la durée de la glace de mer. Les tendances en matière de dates et de durées relativement au commencement et à la débâcle ont été calculées sur la période de 26 ans en fonction des régions visées par le SCG et des sous-régions. Dans plusieurs sous-régions — plus particulièrement dans l’archipel Arctique canadien — nous avons calculé d’importantes tendances indiquant des dates de commencement plus tardives de la glace de mer ou des dates de débâcle plus hâtives, ou les deux. Ces dates plus hâtives et plus tardives se traduisent par la réduction considérable de la durée de la glace de mer en maints endroits de l’Arctique canadien. Pour les localités situées dans la plupart des régions touchées, dont Tuktoyaktuk, Kugluktuk, Cambridge Bay, Gjoa Haven, Arctic Bay et Pond Inlet, cette saison de glace de mer plus courte revêt une grande importance sur les plans social, culturel et économique. Du point de vue statistique, la durée de la glace de mer à l’intérieur du passage du Nord-Ouest n’a pas connu de réduction importante au cours de cette période

On sea-ice dynamical regimes in the Arctic Ocean

Central to an understanding of evolution in sea-ice characteristics in response to climate change is an understanding of sea-ice dynamics. In this study, we investigate regional differences in ice dynamics in the Beaufort Sea and High Arctic using high-frequency ice buoy (beacon) data deployed during the SEDNA and IPY-CFL field campaigns from spring 2007 to winter 2008. Examined in particular are scaling laws determined from absolute dispersion statistics. We create temporal scaling maps to determine whether distinct dynamical regimes can be identified with differing scaling properties. The results from this analysis provide an alternative characterization to changes in sea ice based on dynamics rather than concentration and thickness, and thus insight into, and improved understanding of, the connections between sea-ice drift and morphology.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by International Glaciological Society and can be found at: http://orst.library.ingentaconnect.com/content/igsoc/agl/2015/00000056/00000069/art00035?token=004e105a5c5f3b3b4746527666257370507b467a404f582a2f433e402c3568263c2bc5951624c

A baseline evaluation of oceanographic and sea ice conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex during 2016-2018

In this paper, we examine sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex as a baseline evaluation for the BaySys 2016–2018 field program time frame. Investigated in particular are spatiotemporal patterns in SST and sea ice state and dynamics, with rankings of the latter to highlight extreme conditions relative to the examined 1981–2010 climatology. Results from this study show that SSTs in northwestern Hudson Bay from May to July, 2016–2018, are high relative to the climatology for SST (1982–2010). SSTs are also warmer in 2016 and 2017 than in 2018 relative to their climatology. Similarly, unusually low sea ice cover existed from August to December of 2016 and July to September of 2017, while unusually high sea ice cover existed in January, February, and October of 2018. The ice-free season was approximately 20 days longer in 2016 than in 2018. Unusually high ice-drift speeds occurred in April of 2016 and 2017 and in May of 2018, coinciding with strong winds in 2016 and 2018 and following strong winds in March 2017. Strong meridional circulation was observed in spring of 2016 and winter of 2017, while weak meridional circulation existed in 2018. In a case study of an extreme event, a blizzard from 7 to 9 March 2017, evaluated using Lagrangian dispersion statistics, is shown to have suppressed sea ice deformation off the coast of Churchill. These results are relevant to describing and planning for possible future pathways and scenarios under continued climate change and river regulation

Simulated impacts of relative climate change and river discharge regulation on sea ice and oceanographic conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex

In this analysis, we examine relative contributions from climate change and river discharge regulation to changes in marine conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex using a subset of five atmospheric forcing scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), river discharge data from the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model, both naturalized (without anthropogenic intervention) and regulated (anthropogenically controlled through diversions, dams, reservoirs), and output from the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean Ice-Ocean model for the 1981–2070 time frame. Investigated in particular are spatiotemporal changes in sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and thickness, and zonal and meridional sea ice drift in response to (i) climate change through comparison of historical (1981–2010) and future (2021–2050 and 2041–2070) simulations, (ii) regulation through comparison of historical (1981–2010) naturalized and regulated simulations, and (iii) climate change and regulation combined through comparison of future (2021–2050 and 2041–2070) naturalized and regulated simulations. Also investigated is use of the diagnostic known as e-folding time spatial distribution to monitor changes in persistence in these variables in response to changing climate and regulation impacts in the Hudson Bay Complex. Results from this analysis highlight bay-wide and regional reductions in sea ice concentration and thickness in southwest and northeast Hudson Bay in response to a changing climate, and east-west asymmetry in sea ice drift response in support of past studies. Regulation is also shown to amplify or suppress the climate change signal. Specifically, regulation amplifies sea surface temperatures from April to August, suppresses sea ice loss by approximately 30% in March, contributes to enhanced sea ice drift speed by approximately 30%, and reduces meridional circulation by approximately 20% in January due to enhanced zonal drift. Results further suggest that the offshore impacts of regulation are amplified in a changing climate

A baseline evaluation of atmospheric and river discharge conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex during 2016-2018

In this article, we examine atmospheric and river discharge conditions within the Hudson Bay Complex for the BaySys 2016–2018 field program time frame. Investigated in particular is a subset of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis - Interim (ERA-Interim) atmospheric forcing variables, namely 2-m surface temperature, 10-m surface winds, precipitation, and sea-level pressure, in addition to river discharge. Results from this assessment show that 2016 was characterized by unusually warm conditions (terrestrial and marine) throughout the annual cycle; 2017 by strong cyclone activity in March and high precipitation in January, October, and November; and 2018 by cold and windy conditions throughout the annual cycle. Evaluation of terrestrial conditions showed higher than normal land surface temperatures (the Hudson Bay physical watershed) for all of the 2016–2018 period (excluding a colder than normal spell August–November 2018), particularly in January (2016 and 2017), higher than normal precipitation in October (2016 and 2017), and higher than normal terrestrial discharge to the Hudson Bay Complex in March (2016 and 2017), with drier than average June through October (2016–2018)

Tropospheric Carbon Monoxide Measurements from the Scanning High-Resolution Interferometer Sounder on 7 September 2000 in Southern Africa During SAFARI 2000

[1] Retrieved tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) column densities are presented for more than 9000 spectra obtained by the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UWis) Scanning High-Resolution Interferometer Sounder (SHIS) during a flight on the NASA ER-2 on 7 September 2000 as part of the Southern African Regional Science Initiative (SAFARI 2000) dry season field campaign. Enhancements in tropospheric column CO were detected in the vicinity of a controlled biomass burn in the Timbavati Game Reserve in northeastern South Africa and over the edge of the river of smoke in south central Mozambique. Relatively clean air was observed over the far southern coast of Mozambique. Quantitative comparisons are presented with in situ measurements from five different instruments flying on two other aircraft: the University of Washington Convair-580 (CV) and the South African Aerocommander JRB in the vicinity of the Timbavati fire. Measured tropospheric CO columns (extrapolated from 337 to 100 mb) of 2.1 × 1018 cm−2 in background air and up to 1.5 × 1019 cm−2 in the smoke plume agree well with SHIS retrieved tropospheric CO columns of (2.3 ± 0.25) × 1018 cm−2 over background air near the fire and (1.5 ± 0.35) × 1019 cm−2 over the smoke plume. Qualitative comparisons are presented with three other in situ CO profiles obtained by the South African JRA aircraft over Mozambique and northern South Africa showing the influence of the river of smoke

The 2017 reversal of the Beaufort Gyre: Can dynamic thickening of a seasonal ice cover during a reversal limit summer ice melt in the Beaufort Sea?

During winter 2017 the semi‐permanent Beaufort High collapsed and the anticyclonic Beaufort Gyre reversed. The reversal drove eastward ice motion through the Western Arctic, causing sea ice to converge against Banks Island, and halted the circulation of multiyear sea ice via the gyre, preventing its replenishment in the Beaufort Sea. Prior to the reversal, an anomalously thin seasonal ice cover had formed in the Beaufort following ice‐free conditions during September 2016. With the onset of the reversal in January 2017, convergence drove uncharacteristic dynamic thickening during winter. By the end of March, despite seasonal ice comprising 97% of the ice cover, the reversal created the thickest, roughest and most voluminous regional ice cover of the CryoSat‐2 record. Within the Beaufort Sea, previous work has shown that winter ice export can precondition the region for increased summer ice melt, but that a short reversal during April 2013 contributed to a reduction in summer ice loss. Hence the deformed ice cover at the end of winter 2017 could be expected to limit summer melt. In spite of this, the Beaufort ice cover fell to its fourth lowest September area as the gyre re‐established during April and divergent ice drift broke up the pack, negating the reversal's earlier preconditioning. Our work highlights that dynamic winter thickening of a regional sea ice cover, for instance during a gyre reversal, offers the potential to limit summer ice loss, but that dynamic forcing during spring dictates whether this conditioning carries through to the melt season