Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

AbstractHigh-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks

Integrating attribution with adaptation for unprecedented future heatwaves

AbstractCitizens in many countries are now experiencing record-smashing heatwaves that were intensified due to anthropogenic climate change. Whether today’s most impactful heatwaves could have occurred in a pre-industrial climate, traditionally a central focus of attribution research, is fast becoming an obsolete question. The next frontier for attribution science is to inform adaptation decision-making in the face of unprecedented future heat

Aotearoa New Zealand’s 21^st ‐Century Wildfire Climate

Wildfire is a highly variable natural phenomenon, yet despite this, climate change is already making wildfire conditions measurably worse around the world; however, detailed knowledge about Aotearoa New Zealand’s wildfire climate is currently limited. This study blends weather  observations with regional climate model projections to assess Aotearoa New Zealand’s 21st-century wildfire climate. We find that in the 21st-century, the emergence of a new–more severe wildfire climate will occur. Detailed analysis of observed and simulated wildfire weather finds that ‘very-extreme’ wildfire weather conditions matching the levels observed in Australia’s 2019/20 ‘Black Summer’ bushfires are possible in  regions formerly unaffected. While the extent of emergence is dependent on future emissions, the frequency of very-extreme conditions for the areas affected can occur at any time and is independent of projected 21st-century climate changes. Our findings have significant implications for many rural fire authorities, forest managers and investors, and climate mitigation and afforestation programmes.</p

Extreme rainfall in New Zealand and its association with atmospheric rivers

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The effect of experiment conditioning on estimates of human influence on extreme weather

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Transient and Quasi‐Equilibrium Climate States at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming

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