High-Frequency Analysis of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What do we learn?

The high-frequency analysis of foreign exchange dynamics is helpful in order to better identify the impact of central bank interventions. Evidence robustly shows that interventions do indeed move the exchange rate level in the desired direction. Interventions increase volatility in the short run as they are regarded as information; but they can reduce volatility overall. Ways of transmission may reach beyond the signaling channel and also include theportfolio balance and a damping channel. Finally, interventions are more successful if they obey certain conditions, such as being coordinated among central banks and going with the market and fundamentals.foreign exchange, central bank intervention, high-frequency data, transmission channel

Village Funds in the Rural Credit Market of Thailand

This paper examines the contribution of recently introduced village funds in rural Thailand, one of the largest microfinance programs ever implemented. We use a cross-sectional approach examining village funds in relation to competing financial institutions. We find, first, that village funds reach the target groups of lower income households better than existing institutions from the formal sector. Second, village funds provide loans to those kinds of borrowers which tend to be customers of informal financial institutions. Third, village funds help to reduce credit constraints. Overall, village funds seem to provide services in the intended direction. --informal financial institutions,microfinance,credit constraint

Do Women Manage Smaller Funds?

Based on a sample of 467 asset managers from four countries we robustly find that women manage smaller funds than men, despite tough competition in this industry. Interestingly, the gender gap exists only for managers of smaller funds, i.e. at the lower end of the hierarchy, as quantile regressions show. This is inconsistent with the glass ceiling hypothesis. Going further, this gender gap is limited to large firms. Explanations may refer to large firms using market power in the area of smaller funds or to "visibility" among top asset managers protecting against unequal treatment of the sexes.segregation, asset managers, gender, attitudes, qualification

Cost Efficiency of Domestic and Foreign Banks in Thailand: Evidence from Panel Data

The paper estimates and compares cost efficiency of domestic and foreign banks in Thailand by using bank-panel data between 1995 and 2003. It also examines the effect of foreign bank entry on banking efficiency in Thailand since the significant acquisitions by foreign banks after the 1997 financial crisis. The widely used translog functional form specification is statistically tested by pooled regressions. The estimated results suggest that the unit costs of production of domestic and foreign banks are indistinguishable, although the two types of banks focus on different areas of the banking business. The findings suggest that based on bank operating efficiency, if foreign banks represent the best-practice banks in the industry, to a large extent, domestic banks in Thailand have caught up to the best-practice standards throughout 1995-2003, significantly after the 1997 financial crisis . This may be due to greater foreign participation through acquisitions, which increases the competitive pressure in the banking industry, and also to financial restructuring of domestic banks, which increases the cost efficiency of domestic banks, thereby benefiting banking customers. --Banks,Financial Policy,Capital and Ownership Structure,Cost Efficiency

High-frequency analysis of foreign exchange interventions: what do we learn?

The high-frequency analysis of foreign exchange dynamics is helpful in order to better identify the impact of central bank interventions. Evidence robustly shows that interventions do indeed move the exchange rate level in the desired direction. Interventions increase volatility in the short run as they are regarded as information; but they can reduce volatility overall. Ways of transmission may reach beyond the signaling channel and also include the portfolio balance and a damping channel. Finally, interventions are more successful if they obey certain conditions, such as being coordinated among central banks and going with the market and fundamentals

The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence

The use of technical analysis by financial market professionals is not well understood. This paper thus analyzes survey evidence from 692 fund managers in five countries, the vast majority of whom rely on technical analysis. At a forecasting horizon of weeks, technical analysis is the most important form of analysis and up to this horizon it is thus more important than fundamental analysis. Technicians are as experienced, as educated, as successful in their career and largely just as overconfident in decision-making as others. However, technical analysis is somewhat more popular in smaller asset management firms. What we find most significant is the relation of technical analysis with the view that prices are heavily determined by psychological influences. Consequently, technicians apply trend-following behavior

Die Kreditkrise: Individuelle Fehler oder systemische Schwäche?

Die internationale Finanzmarktkrise dauert nun schon fast ein Jahr und zieht immer weitere Kreise. Wie wurde die Krise verursacht? Welche realwirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen hat sie? Was unterscheidet die heutige Bankenkrise von der Weltwirtschaftskrise der dreißiger Jahre

The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis

Technical analysis involves the prediction of future exchange rate (or other assetprice) movements from an inductive analysis of past movements. A reading of the large literature on this topic allows us to establish a set of stylised facts, including the facts that technical analysis is an important and widely used method of analysis in the foreign exchange market and that applying certain technical trading rules over a sustained period may lead to significant positive excess returns. We then analyze four arguments that have been put forward to explain the continuing widespread use of technical analysis and its apparent profitability: that the foreign exchange market may be characterised by not-fully-rational behaviour; that technical analysis may exploit the influence of central bank interventions; that technical analysis may be an efficient form of information processing ; and finally that it may provide information on nonfundamental influences on foreign exchange movements. Although all of these positions may be relevant to some degree, neither non-rationality nor official interventions seem to be widespread and persistent enough to explain the obstinate passion of foreign exchange professionals for technical analysis.foreign exchange market ; technical analysis ; market microstructure