Instituciones, estructura económica y política económica: ¿Qué hay detrás de la inflación en América Latina?

In this paper we examine the importance of institutional arrangements and factors related to the economic structure to explain inflation outcomes in Latin America. We perform a dynamic panel data analysis with an ample set of variables that allowed us to consider the temporal dimension of the data, and to control for endogeneity. Results lead us to believe that institutional arrangements – other than central bank independence – have played an important role in terms of inflation outcomes in Latin America. Variables that may affect inflation via time consistency problems seem somewhat more relevant than those suggested by optimal tax considerations. In particular, the negative correlation between political constraints to changes in public policies and inflation in Latin America is quite suggestive. We find that less flexible exchange rate regimes, advances in structural policies, and better government institutions have contributed to the reduction in inflation rates in the region. Faster growing countries exhibited lower inflation rates. Openness to trade seems to be positively correlated with inflation, suggesting that more open economies are more exposed to external shocks, allowing countries to benefit in terms of importing lower international inflation rates in recent years. Other variables did not prove to be significant.Latin America, inflation, institutions, economic structure

Alternativas metodológicas para el empalme estadístico de serie temporales: caso Venezuela 1950 – 2005

The intention of this research is to solve the statistical difficulty when statistical economic series are spliced. Therefore, this paper discusses the scope of the various methods of splicing in the literature. Also presents an additional method, which considers a process of maximization for structural interpolation. Since Venezuela does not escape the problem of the statistical joints in on accounts, this work also presents a complete series of Gross Domestic Product by productive economic activity and by expenditure components, from 1950 until 2005, expressed in base year prices 1997

Exchange rate pass-through on prices of goods and services in Venezuela

This paper delves into the asymmetries of the exchange rate pass-through on prices in the case of Venezuela, extending the analysis of Mendoza (2004) the prices of goods and services. The data used is monthly for the period 07/90 -12/04. We find that pass-through in services is less than pass-through in goods. This result may reflect the presence of a major component of non-tradables in the former than the latter. For both groups there is evidence of price asymmetries associated mainly to the behavior of oil prices, the misalignment of the real exchange rate and monetary expansions or contractions.Pass-through, inflation, depreciation, regression models with smooth transition

Alternativas metodológicas para el empalme estadístico de serie temporales: caso Venezuela 1950 – 2005

The intention of this research is to solve the statistical difficulty when statistical economic series are spliced. Therefore, this paper discusses the scope of the various methods of splicing in the literature. Also presents an additional method, which considers a process of maximization for structural interpolation. Since Venezuela does not escape the problem of the statistical joints in on accounts, this work also presents a complete series of Gross Domestic Product by productive economic activity and by expenditure components, from 1950 until 2005, expressed in base year prices 1997

Modelo de intervención cambiaria para el caso venezolano

This paper intends to present a methodology that foresees anticipated signal of intervention in the foreign exchange market, related to the levels in the nominal exchange rate volatility observed during the Exchange Rate Flotation Scheme in force between February of 2002 and January of 2003. For reaching this goal, it is used the Value at Risk concept and the Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model GARCH (1,1). This model defines exchange rate fluctuations that are not associated with the macroeconomic fundamentals and would require the intervention in the foreign exchange market by the monetary authority

Presión en el mercado cambiario para el caso venezolano (1984-2003)

Esta investigación presenta una propuesta para medir el indicador de presión del mercado cambiario para el caso de Venezuela, haciendo uso de análisis de componentes principales. Por su parte, se presenta un modelo monetario ampliado con la riqueza del sector no financiero y la dinámica entre las tasas de interés domésticas y foráneas, para contrastar empíricamente, a través de método econométrico de retardos distribuidos, los determinantes de la presión del mercado cambiario venezolano dentro de la dinámica de la política monetaria en Venezuela entre los años 1984 y 2003

Presión en el mercado cambiario para el caso venezolano (1984-2003)

Esta investigación presenta una propuesta para medir el indicador de presión del mercado cambiario para el caso de Venezuela, haciendo uso de análisis de componentes principales. Por su parte, se presenta un modelo monetario ampliado con la riqueza del sector no financiero y la dinámica entre las tasas de interés domésticas y foráneas, para contrastar empíricamente, a través de método econométrico de retardos distribuidos, los determinantes de la presión del mercado cambiario venezolano dentro de la dinámica de la política monetaria en Venezuela entre los años 1984 y 2003

Efecto transferencia (pass-through) del tipo de cambio en los precios de bienes y servicios en Venezuela

This paper delves into the asymmetries of the exchange rate pass-through on prices in the case of Venezuela, extending the analysis of Mendoza (2004) the prices of goods and services. The data used is monthly for the period 07/90 -12/04. We find that pass-through in services is less than pass-through in goods. This result may reflect the presence of a major component of non-tradables in the former than the latter. For both groups there is evidence of price asymmetries associated mainly to the behavior of oil prices, the misalignment of the real exchange rate and monetary expansions or contractions

Instituciones, estructura económica y política económica: ¿Qué hay detrás de la inflación en América Latina?

In this paper we examine the importance of institutional arrangements and factors related to the economic structure to explain inflation outcomes in Latin America. We perform a dynamic panel data analysis with an ample set of variables that allowed us to consider the temporal dimension of the data, and to control for endogeneity. Results lead us to believe that institutional arrangements – other than central bank independence – have played an important role in terms of inflation outcomes in Latin America. Variables that may affect inflation via time consistency problems seem somewhat more relevant than those suggested by optimal tax considerations. In particular, the negative correlation between political constraints to changes in public policies and inflation in Latin America is quite suggestive. We find that less flexible exchange rate regimes, advances in structural policies, and better government institutions have contributed to the reduction in inflation rates in the region. Faster growing countries exhibited lower inflation rates. Openness to trade seems to be positively correlated with inflation, suggesting that more open economies are more exposed to external shocks, allowing countries to benefit in terms of importing lower international inflation rates in recent years. Other variables did not prove to be significant

Macroeconomic lockdown and SMEs: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain

The relative importance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large firms is a recurrent topic in the small business economics literature. This paper presents a real and financial social accounting matrix (FSAM) capable of distinguishing the direct and indirect effects that are transferred from micro, small, medium, and large firms to the rest of the economy. We use the hypothetical extraction method (HEM) to explore the sequence of reactions associated with shocks that arise from the COVID-19 lockdown. Using a structural model for the Spanish economy, we identify the role of different firm-size categories in the aggregate gross domestic product (GDP). Our results allow us to reconcile the mixed narrative that accompanies the evaluation of the role played by these categories in economic activity by revealing that both SMEs and large firms are important for supporting economic activity. In particular, SMEs help explain 43% of the income and two-thirds of the unemployment decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings also show the importance of conditioning SME industrial policy to sectoral analysis