Using ambulatory care sensitive hospitalisations to analyse the effectiveness of primary care services in Mexico.

Ambulatory care sensitive hospitalisations (ACSH) have been widely used to study the quality and effectiveness of primary care. Using data from 248 general hospitals in Mexico during 2001-2011 we identify 926,769 ACSHs in 188 health jurisdictions before and during the health insurance expansion that took place in this period, and estimate a fixed effects model to explain the association of the jurisdiction ACSH rate with patient and community factors. National ACSH rate increased by 50%, but trends and magnitude varied at the jurisdiction and state level. We find strong associations of the ACSH rate with socioeconomic conditions, health care supply and health insurance coverage even after controlling for potential endogeneity in the rolling out of the insurance programme. We argue that the traditional focus on the increase/decrease of the ACSH rate might not be a valid indicator to assess the effectiveness of primary care in a health insurance expansion setting, but that the ACSH rate is useful when compared between and within states once the variation in insurance coverage is taken into account as it allows the identification of differences in the provision of primary care. The high heterogeneity found in the ACSH rates suggests important state and jurisdiction differences in the quality and effectiveness of primary care in Mexico

Health care utilisation amongst older adults with sensory and cognitive impairments in Europe.

Worldwide, the high prevalence of multiple chronic conditions amongst older population has led to increased utilisation of health care and rising associated costs, becoming a major public health concern. Hearing, vision and cognitive disorders are common chronic conditions amongst older Europeans and recent studies have documented its high co-occurrence. While it has been shown separately that suffering either mental disorders or sensory (hearing and vision) impairments is associated with higher health care utilisation, the association between health care utilisation and the interaction of these conditions has received little attention in the literature. Therefore, using four waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), this study applies the correlated random effects method to the negative binomial and finite mixture models to analyse the extent to which the interaction of cognitive and sensory impairments is associated with health care use. We found that individuals with cognitive impairment tend to have more hospitalisations. The finite mixture approach indicates a positive association between sensory impairment and the number of hospitalisations amongst low users of health care. Additionally, our findings suggest a positive association between suffering both impairments at the same time and the number of doctor and GP visits

Back to basics: A mediation analysis approach to addressing the fundamental questions of integrated care evaluations.

Health systems around the world are aiming to improve the integration of health and social care services to deliver better care for patients. Existing evaluations have focused exclusively on the impact of care integration on health outcomes and found little effect. That suggests the need to take a step back and ask whether integrated care programmes actually lead to greater clinical integration of care and indeed whether greater integration is associated with improved health outcomes. We propose a mediation analysis approach to address these two fundamental questions when evaluating integrated care programmes. We illustrate our approach by re-examining the impact of an English integrated care program on clinical integration and assessing whether greater integration is causally associated with fewer admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions. We measure clinical integration using a concentration index of outpatient referrals at the general practice level. While we find that the scheme increased integration of primary and secondary care, clinical integration did not mediate a decrease in unplanned hospital admissions. Our analysis emphasizes the need to better understand the hypothesized causal impact of integration on health outcomes and demonstrates how mediation analysis can inform future evaluations and program design

Local Instrumental Variable Methods to Address Confounding and Heterogeneity when Using Electronic Health Records: An Application to Emergency Surgery

BACKGROUND: Electronic health records (EHRs) offer opportunities for comparative effectiveness research to inform decision making. However, to provide useful evidence, these studies must address confounding and treatment effect heterogeneity according to unmeasured prognostic factors. Local instrumental variable (LIV) methods can help studies address these challenges, but have yet to be applied to EHR data. This article critically examines a LIV approach to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of emergency surgery (ES) for common acute conditions from EHRs. METHODS: This article uses hospital episodes statistics (HES) data for emergency hospital admissions with acute appendicitis, diverticular disease, and abdominal wall hernia to 175 acute hospitals in England from 2010 to 2019. For each emergency admission, the instrumental variable for ES receipt was each hospital's ES rate in the year preceding the emergency admission. The LIV approach provided individual-level estimates of the incremental quality-adjusted life-years, costs and net monetary benefit of ES, which were aggregated to the overall population and subpopulations of interest, and contrasted with those from traditional IV and risk-adjustment approaches. RESULTS: The study included 268,144 (appendicitis), 138,869 (diverticular disease), and 106,432 (hernia) patients. The instrument was found to be strong and to minimize covariate imbalance. For diverticular disease, the results differed by method; although the traditional approaches reported that, overall, ES was not cost-effective, the LIV approach reported that ES was cost-effective but with wide statistical uncertainty. For all 3 conditions, the LIV approach found heterogeneity in the cost-effectiveness estimates across population subgroups: in particular, ES was not cost-effective for patients with severe levels of frailty. CONCLUSIONS: EHRs can be combined with LIV methods to provide evidence on the cost-effectiveness of routinely provided interventions, while fully recognizing heterogeneity. HIGHLIGHTS: This article addresses the confounding and heterogeneity that arise when assessing the comparative effectiveness from electronic health records (EHR) data, by applying a local instrumental variable (LIV) approach to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of emergency surgery (ES) versus alternative strategies, for patients with common acute conditions (appendicitis, diverticular disease, and abdominal wall hernia).The instrumental variable, the hospital's tendency to operate, was found to be strongly associated with ES receipt and to minimize imbalances in baseline characteristics between the comparison groups.The LIV approach found that, for each condition, there was heterogeneity in the estimates of cost-effectiveness according to baseline characteristics.The study illustrates how an LIV approach can be applied to EHR data to provide cost-effectiveness estimates that recognize heterogeneity and can be used to inform decision making as well as to generate hypotheses for further research

Delivery, dose, outcomes and resource use of stroke therapy: the SSNAPIEST observational study

BackgroundTherapy is key to effective stroke care, but many patients receive little.ObjectivesTo understand how stroke therapy is delivered in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and which factors are associated with dose, outcome and resource use.DesignSecondary analysis of the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme, using standard descriptive statistics and multilevel mixed-effects regression models, while adjusting for all known and measured confounders.SettingStroke services in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.ParticipantsA total of 94,905 adults admitted with stroke, who remained an inpatient for > 72 hours.ResultsRoutes through stroke services were highly varied (> 800), but four common stroke pathways emerged. Seven distinct impairment-based patient subgroups were characterised. The average amount of therapy was very low. Modifiable factors associated with the average amount of inpatient therapy were type of stroke team, timely therapy assessments, staffing levels and model of therapy provision. More (of any type of) therapy was associated with shorter length of stay, less resource use and lower mortality. More occupational therapy, speech therapy and psychology were also associated with less disability and institutionalisation. Large amounts of physiotherapy were associated with greater disability and institutionalisation.LimitationsUse of observational data does not infer causation. All efforts were made to adjust for all known and measured confounding factors but some may remain. We categorised participants using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, which measures a limited number of impairments relatively crudely, so mild or rare impairments may have been missed.ConclusionsStroke patients receive very little therapy. Modifiable organisational factors associated with greater amounts of therapy were identified, and positive associations between amount of therapy and outcome were confirmed. The reason for the unexpected associations between large amounts of physiotherapy, disability and institutionalisation is unknown. Prospective work is urgently needed to investigate further. Future work needs to investigate (1) prospectively, the association between physiotherapy and outcome; (2) the optimal amount of therapy to provide for different patient groups; (3) the most effective way of organising stroke therapy/rehabilitation services, including service configuration, staffing levels and working hours; and (4) how to reduce unexplained variation in resource use.FundingThis project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 8, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

How do patients pass through stroke services? Identifying stroke care pathways using national audit data.

OBJECTIVE: To map and describe how patients pass through stroke services. METHODS: Data from 94,905 stroke patients (July 2013-July 2015) who were still inpatients 72 hours after hospital admission were extracted from a national stroke register and were used to identify the routes patients took through hospital and community stroke services. We sought to categorize these routes through iterative consultations with clinical experts and to describe patient characteristics, therapy provision, outcomes and costs within each category. RESULTS: We identified 874 routes defined by the type of admitting stroke team and subsequent transfer history. We consolidated these into nine distinct routes and further summarized these into three overlapping 'pathways' that accounted for 99% of the patients. These were direct discharge (44%), community rehabilitation (47%) and inpatient transfer (19%) with 12% of the patients receiving both inpatient transfer and community rehabilitation. Patients with the mildest and most severe strokes were more likely to follow the direct discharge pathway. Those perceived to need most therapy were more likely to follow the inpatient transfer pathway. Costs were lowest and mortality was highest for patients on the direct discharge pathway. Outcomes were best for patients on the community rehabilitation pathway and costs were highest where patients underwent inpatient transfers. CONCLUSION: Three overarching stroke care pathways were identified which differ according to patient characteristics, therapy needs and outcomes. This pathway mapping provides a benchmark to develop and plan clinical services, and for future research

Framework for identification and measurement of spillover effects in policy implementation: intended non-intended targeted non-targeted spillovers (INTENTS)

BACKGROUND: There is increasing awareness among researchers and policymakers of the potential for healthcare interventions to have consequences beyond those initially intended. These unintended consequences or "spillover effects" result from the complex features of healthcare organisation and delivery and can either increase or decrease overall effectiveness. Their potential influence has important consequences for the design and evaluation of implementation strategies and for decision-making. However, consideration of spillovers remains partial and unsystematic. We develop a comprehensive framework for the identification and measurement of spillover effects resulting from changes to the way in which healthcare services are organised and delivered. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review to map the existing literature on spillover effects in health and healthcare interventions and used the findings of this review to develop a comprehensive framework to identify and measure spillover effects. RESULTS: The scoping review identified a wide range of different spillover effects, either experienced by agents not intentionally targeted by an intervention or representing unintended effects for targeted agents. Our scoping review revealed that spillover effects tend to be discussed in papers only when they are found to be statistically significant or might account for unexpected findings, rather than as a pre-specified feature of evaluation studies. This hinders the ability to assess all potential implications of a given policy or intervention. We propose a taxonomy of spillover effects, classified based on the outcome and the unit experiencing the effect: within-unit, between-unit, and diagonal spillover effects. We then present the INTENTS framework: Intended Non-intended TargEted Non-Targeted Spillovers. The INTENTS framework considers the units and outcomes which may be affected by an intervention and the mechanisms by which spillover effects are generated. CONCLUSIONS: The INTENTS framework provides a structured guide for researchers and policymakers when considering the potential effects that implementation strategies may generate, and the steps to take when designing and evaluating such interventions. Application of the INTENTS framework will enable spillover effects to be addressed appropriately in future evaluations and decision-making, ensuring that the full range of costs and benefits of interventions are correctly identified

Comparative effectiveness of second line oral antidiabetic treatments among people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: emulation of a target trial using routinely collected health data

Objective: To compare the effectiveness of three commonly prescribed oral antidiabetic drugs added to metformin for people with type 2 diabetes mellitus requiring second line treatment in routine clinical practice. Design: Cohort study emulating a comparative effectiveness trial (target trial). Setting: Linked primary care, hospital, and death data in England, 2015-21. Participants: 75 739 adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus who initiated second line oral antidiabetic treatment with a sulfonylurea, DPP-4 inhibitor, or SGLT-2 inhibitor added to metformin. Main outcome measures: Primary outcome was absolute change in glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) between baseline and one year follow-up. Secondary outcomes were change in body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at one year and two years, change in HbA1c at two years, and time to ≥40% decline in eGFR, major adverse kidney event, hospital admission for heart failure, major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), and all cause mortality. Instrumental variable analysis was used to reduce the risk of confounding due to unobserved baseline measures. Results: 75 739 people initiated second line oral antidiabetic treatment with sulfonylureas (n=25 693, 33.9%), DPP-4 inhibitors (n=34 464 ,45.5%), or SGLT-2 inhibitors (n=15 582, 20.6%). SGLT-2 inhibitors were more effective than DPP-4 inhibitors or sulfonylureas in reducing mean HbA1c values between baseline and one year. After the instrumental variable analysis, the mean differences in HbA1c change between baseline and one year were −2.5 mmol/mol (95% confidence interval (CI) −3.7 to −1.3) for SGLT-2 inhibitors versus sulfonylureas and −3.2 mmol/mol (−4.6 to −1.8) for SGLT-2 inhibitors versus DPP-4 inhibitors. SGLT-2 inhibitors were more effective than sulfonylureas or DPP-4 inhibitors in reducing BMI and systolic blood pressure. For some secondary endpoints, evidence for SGLT-2 inhibitors being more effective was lacking—the hazard ratio for MACE, for example, was 0.99 (95% CI 0.61 to 1.62) versus sulfonylureas and 0.91 (0.51 to 1.63) versus DPP-4 inhibitors. SGLT-2 inhibitors had reduced hazards of hospital admission for heart failure compared with DPP-4 inhibitors (0.32, 0.12 to 0.90) and sulfonylureas (0.46, 0.20 to 1.05). The hazard ratio for a ≥40% decline in eGFR indicated a protective effect versus sulfonylureas (0.42, 0.22 to 0.82), with high uncertainty in the estimated hazard ratio versus DPP-4 inhibitors (0.64, 0.29 to 1.43). Conclusions: This emulation study of a target trial found that SGLT-2 inhibitors were more effective than sulfonylureas or DPP-4 inhibitors in lowering mean HbA1c, BMI, and systolic blood pressure and in reducing the hazards of hospital admission for heart failure (v DPP-4 inhibitors) and kidney disease progression (v sulfonylureas), with no evidence of differences in other clinical endpoints

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of emergency surgery for adult emergency hospital admissions with common acute gastrointestinal conditions: the ESORT study

Background: Evidence is required on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of emergency surgery compared with non-emergency surgery strategies (including medical management, non-surgical procedures and elective surgery) for patients admitted to hospital with common acute gastrointestinal conditions. Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the relative (1) clinical effectiveness of two strategies (i.e. emergency surgery vs. non-emergency surgery strategies) for five common acute conditions presenting as emergency admissions; (2) cost-effectiveness for five common acute conditions presenting as emergency admissions; and (3) clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the alternative strategies for specific patient subgroups. Methods: The records of adults admitted as emergencies with acute appendicitis, cholelithiasis, diverticular disease, abdominal wall hernia or intestinal obstruction to 175 acute hospitals in England between 1 April 2010 and 31 December 2019 were extracted from Hospital Episode Statistics and linked to mortality data from the Office for National Statistics. Eligibility was determined using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, diagnosis codes, which were agreed by clinical panel consensus. Patients having emergency surgery were identified from Office of Population Censuses and Surveys procedure codes. The study addressed the potential for unmeasured confounding with an instrumental variable design. The instrumental variable was each hospital’s propensity to use emergency surgery compared with non-emergencysurgery strategies. The primary outcome was the ‘number of days alive and out of hospital’ at 90 days. We reported the relative effectiveness of the alternative strategies overall, and for prespecified subgroups (i.e. age, number of comorbidities and frailty level). The cost-effectiveness analyses used resource use and mortality from the linked data to derive estimates of incremental costs, quality-adjusted life-years and incremental net monetary benefits at 1 year. Results: Cohort sizes were as follows: 268,144 admissions with appendicitis, 240,977 admissions with cholelithiasis, 138,869 admissions with diverticular disease, 106,432 admissions with a hernia and 133,073 admissions with an intestinal obstruction. Overall, at 1 year, the average number of days alive and out of hospitals at 90 days, costs and quality-adjusted life-years were similar following either strategy, after adjusting for confounding. For each of the five conditions, overall, the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) around the incremental net monetary benefit estimates all included zero. For patients with severe frailty, emergency surgery led to a reduced number of days alive and out of hospital and was not cost-effective compared with non-emergency surgery, with incremental net monetary benefit estimates of –£18,727 (95% CI –£23,900 to –£13,600) for appendicitis, –£7700 (95% CI –£13,000 to –£2370) for cholelithiasis, –£9230 (95% CI –£24,300 to £5860) for diverticular disease, –£16,600 (95% CI –£21,100 to –£12,000) for hernias and –£19,300 (95% CI –£25,600 to –£13,000) for intestinal obstructions. For patients who were ‘fit’, emergency surgery was relatively cost-effective, with estimated incremental net monetary benefit estimates of £5180 (95% CI £684 to £9680) for diverticular disease, £2040 (95% CI £996 to £3090) for hernias, £7850 (95% CI £5020 to £10,700) for intestinal obstructions, £369 (95% CI –£728 to £1460) for appendicitis and £718 (95% CI £294 to £1140) for cholelithiasis. Public and patient involvement translation workshop participants emphasised that these findings should be made widely available to inform future decisions about surgery. Limitations: The instrumental variable approach did not eliminate the risk of confounding, and the acute hospital perspective excluded costs to other providers. Conclusions: Neither strategy was more cost-effective overall. For patients with severe frailty, nonemergency surgery strategies were relatively cost-effective. For patients who were fit, emergency surgery was more cost-effective. Future work: For patients with multiple long-term conditions, further research is required to assess the benefits and costs of emergency surgery. Study registration: This study is registered as reviewregistry784