A Framework to Estimate the Potential and Costs for the Control of Fine Particulate Emissions in Europe

This paper presents a methodology for estimating primary PM emissions in Europe and the costs involved to reduce these emissions from the various sources in the European countries. The framework developed is compatible with existing approaches to estimate emissions and costs for SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC in the RAINS model. Emissions of PM are released from a large variety of sources with significant technical and economic differences. The emission characteristic of the sources is also strongly influenced by country-specific conditions. The method applied considers the crucial parameters and allows sectoral and regional variation. The emissions of particulate matter (PM) in the RAINS model are calculated for three different size classes (i) fine fraction (PM2.5), (ii) coarse fraction (PM10 - PM2.5) and (iii) large particles (PM_>10 mu m). A methodology has been developed to estimate emission control costs of standard technologies under the specific conditions characteristic for the various European countries. Based on the assumption of the general availability of control technologies with equal technical properties and costs, a number of country-specific circumstances (level of technological advancement, installation size distribution, labor costs, etc.) are used to estimate the costs for the actual operation of pollution control equipment. Based on the developed methodology, a first estimate of the PM emissions in Europe was derived for the years 1990, 1995 and 2010. This estimate must be considered as preliminary, since many of the emission factors need revision and update with additional information. The projections for the year 2010 assume full implementation of the current legislation on emission controls, e.g., the EURO-IV emission standards resulting from the Auto Oil process for mobile sources, and regulations relating to the large combustion plant directive of the European Union. Major reductions in PM emissions occurred between 1990 and 1995, mainly because of the economic restructuring in Eastern Europe where many old coal power stations were retired. Between 1990 and 1995, TSP emissions declined by 41 percent; for 2010 a decline of 58 percent is projected. Emission reductions are most efficient for larger particles; for 2010, PM10 is calculated to decline by 56 percent, and PM2.5 by 48 percent. Consequently, fine fraction (PM2.5) will be relatively more important in the future (38 percent of TSP in 2010) compared to 31 percent of TSP in 1990. In 1990, combustion in energy industries, small non-industrial combustion sources, production processes and road transport contributed about 20 percent each to total TSP emissions in the EU-15. In the non-EU countries, small sources and power plants were responsible for more than 30 percent each, while road transport contributed only three percent of TSP. In those countries, small sources (domestic coal and wood combustion) are expected to increase their share to 45 percent in 2010, while in the EU-15 mobile sources will become the most important source category for TSP emissions (45 percent). For PM2.5, mobile sources were the largest contributor in 1990 in the EU-15 countries (31 percent). This share is expected to decline slightly by 2010 (28 percent) due to the strict regulations that were recently introduced. In the non-EU countries, industrial production processes were the largest source of PM2.5 emissions (36 percent), while in 2010 small combustion sources in the domestic sector will dominate (38 percent). The present implementation (version 1.03) of the RAINS PM module on the Internet (www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains/PM/pm-home.html) provides free access to the input data and results to facilitate interaction with national experts

Rekonstruktion der Boden- und Gewaesserversauerung in der Langen Bramke (Harz) Modellierung der Sulfat-Dynamik mit MAGIC (Adsorption) und dem LB-Modell (Ausfaellung)

Long-lasting emissions of acid-forming air pollutants as a result of human activities have lead, inter alia, to an accumulation of organic sulfur (als sulfate, SO_4) in many central European forest soils. Two mechanisms of sorption are discussed: adsorption of SO_4 and precipitation of aluminium hydroxo sulfates. Adsorption isotherms were built into numerous process-oriented dynamic models like MAGIC. The Lange Bramke model describes SO_4 accumulation by means of solubility products for two hydroxo sulfates. It is the first model of this kind to be used for reconstructing the 140-year-old acidification history of an entire water catchment area, the Lange Bramke in the Harz mountain region.- SO_4 depositions in central Europe have been cut by some 50 per cent during the last ten years. The dynamics of SO_4 accumulation and, thereby, SO_4 release depends decisively on the assumed mechanism of sorption. This is made clear by means of the calibration of both models to the long-term measuring series conducted in the Lange Bramke area and by means of scenarios for the future with unchanged and reduced receipts of SO_4. The two theories on the accumulation of SO_4 are critically discussed. (orig.)Die langandauernde anthropogene Emission saeurebildender Luftschadstoffe hat unter anderem zu einer Aufspeicherung anorganischen Schwefels (als Sulfat, SO_4) in vielen mitteleuropaeischen Waldboeden gefuehrt. Zwei Sorptionsmechanismen werden diskutiert: Die SO_4-Adsorption und die Ausfaellung von Aluminium-Hydroxo-Sulfaten. Adsorptions-Isothermen wurden in zahlreiche prozessorientierte dynamische Modelle wie MAGIC aufgenommen. In dem Lange Bramke-Modell ist die SO_4-Aufspeicherung durch Loeslichkeitsprodukte fuer zwei Hydroxo-Sulfate beschrieben. Es ist das erste Modell dieser Art, das zur Rekonstruktion der 140-jaehrigen Versauerungsgeschichte eines gesamtes Wassereinzugsgebietes, der Langen Bramke im Harz, benutzt wurde. Die SO_4-Depositionen in Mitteleuropa sind in den letzten 10 Jahren um ca. 50% zurueckgegangen. Die Dynamik der SO_4-Aufspeicherung und somit auch der -Freisetzung haengt entscheidend von dem angenommenen Sorptions-Mechanismus ab. Dies wird anhand der Kalibrierungen beider Modelle auf die Langzeitmessreihen in der Langen Bramke sowie anhand von Zukunftsszenarien mit gleichbleibenden und reduzierten SO_4-Eintraegen deutlich. Die beiden Vorstellungen zur SO_4-Aufspeicherung werden kritisch diskutiert. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman